How Does AL A BAM A Match Up Against UT(e)?

[CrimsonJazz]

I don’t think we have any other choice but to throw the ball. Without Miller, our running game is not good enough to control the clock.

Certainly, but we still have to run enough to keep them honest. Also, UT's run D isn't exactly stellar. It's still possible that some of our young guys can make a positive impact.

 

[BamaHoopsBoi]

I'd send Formby to the lockerroom five minutes before kickoff to get a playsheet that doesn't exist and tell him not to come back unless he has it.

"Go find the shoulder pad stretcher."

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

I asked Chat to run simulations, assuming no Jam Miller. What it produced:

Given those assumptions, here is a stylized summary of what the distribution of outcomes looked like in such a simulation (these are not exact, but representative):​

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Outcome Type​	Approx Probability​	Typical Score Range (Alabama-Tennessee)​
Alabama wins comfortably (by 8-20 pts)​	~45%​	31-24, 34-24, 35-27, 38-26​
Alabama wins moderately (by 1-7 pts)​	~25%​	28-24, 30-27, 27-23, 29-26​
Upset by Tennessee (Tennessee wins)​	~25%​	27-26, 30-28, 31-29, 24-21​
Blowouts (rare)​	~5%​	40-20, 42-17, or a surprise 38-14 in favor of Tennessee​

​

From those, the most probable band is an Alabama win by about 7–10 points, with final scores clustering around Alabama 31, Tennessee 24 or Alabama 30, Tennessee 23.​

​

If I pick a median simulated outcome, it might be Alabama 30, Tennessee 23. The interquartile range (middle 50% of outcomes) might span from Alabama 26–Tennessee 20 up to Alabama 34–Tennessee 28.​

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The “tail risk” is nontrivial: in maybe 15–20% of simulations, Tennessee wins, especially if turnovers or big plays happen against Alabama.​

​

 

[crimsonaudio]

What is UT’s pass rush like? Because if Formby starts at RT that could be a problem again. I’ve seen statues move faster than Formby.

They're one of the best in the country (4.33 sacks per game). Elite pass rush.

That said, Ty gets rid of the ball at NFL speed most of the time (<3 seconds), so I think his quick decision making and precision can mitigate UT's admittedly stellar pass rush.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

They're one of the best in the country (4.33 sacks per game). Elite pass rush.

That said, Ty gets rid of the ball at NFL speed most of the time (<3 seconds), so I think his quick decision making and precision can mitigate UT's admittedly stellar pass rush.

I’m hoping this will be the game where we connect on a few Deep Balls to back them off.

We’ve been so close a few times this year.

If they feel they have to defend the short, medium, and deep shots then we can really keep them guessing and put them on their heels.

I want this Offense to Nuke Tennessee off the planet.

 

[Ledsteplin]

Assuming Jam will not be playing is huge. He just seems to make our running game decent enough to compliment Ty’s passing ability. Now Ty will be required to use his legs more. If we had Jam I’d feel really good about this game. The D needs to bring it big time.

I'd like to see Daniel Hill step it up. He's very athletic and versatile. He hasn't really played much.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I’m hoping this will be the game where we connect on a few Deep Balls to back them off.

We’ve been so close a few times this year.

If they feel they have to defend the short, medium, and deep shots then we can really keep them guessing and put them on their heels.

I want this Offense to Nuke Tennessee off the planet.

OL will have to play their game of the year to allow deep routes to develop.

I expect Bama to push the run and short / midrange pass game so Ty can get the ball out quickly.

But Grubb has forgotten more about calling an offense than I'll ever know, so we'll see...

 

[CoolBreeze]

OL will have to play their game of the year to allow deep routes to develop.

I expect Bama to push the run and short / midrange pass game so Ty can get the ball out quickly.

But Grubb has forgotten more about calling an offense than I'll ever know, so we'll see...

Right, I think that the key to this offense is keeping the other team off balance with the play calling. The OC has been doing a pretty good job of it this year and Ty is great at seeing the matchup pre-snap and getting the ball out quickly. We can pass to open up the run in some cases and I also think there are quite a few wrinkles we work on in practice that have not been revealed in a game yet. But Ty is the key and he is doing a great job so far.