How many points will Bama need to beat Auburn?

[UAME]

As crazy as it sounds, the more points we score, the lower our chances of winning. We need to hold the ball, shorten the game, reduce the number of kickoffs as much as possible.

I think Auburn scores no more than 3 TDs in a ball-control game, so I see us needing 24 to win. If the game opens up and we get some explosive TD plays, that puts our D on the field much longer. In that case, Auburn could easily score 2 more times, putting them in the 30-35 point range.

 

[RammaJamma10]

A lot of references have been made to the LSU Aub game in reference to this thread. What we will need is for Mandell to have close to as solid a performance as the LSU punter did. He was amazing at pinning them deep in their territory. I see Aub similar to UF with Tebow in the fact that if they have drives starting inside the 20, they can be contained. Give them field position on the 35 or 40 yard line to start, and it's gonna be a long long day. Special teams will decide this one IMO.

But to answer the thread topic, I think if we get 35 up we will be in very good shape. RTR.

 

[mlh]

I'm thinking the final score of this game might be in the range of 27-24, Bama winning, of course. :tongue:

I think they'll jump out to an early lead and it will look like it could get ugly. Then our defense will tighten up and we'll make a comeback. Turnovers will be key and that will keep it from getting out of hand. But they have the potential to score a bunch of points on us. To be safe I'll say we need to score 35 to win. But to do that we have to finish drives and not kick field goals in the redzone. It drove me crazy to see us march down the field in our opening drive against MSU only to run out of steam and limp off with 3 points.

 

[Alasippi]

We have not seen an offense that even remotely compares with theirs.

I don't think we can stop their running game with the middle of our front being rather weak.

So they're going to score some points.

I would also like to see long ball control drives, but we really haven't shown the propensity to run the ball well enough to do that.

And it's almost a catch 22 here.

I don't tnink they can cover our receivers which will probably mean that we'll score a bunch as well, but we'll score fast, which will give them the ball right back.

No, I think this is going to be a total all out shoot out...and I think we'll beat them 48-38.

So it will take 39 points for us to win lol

RTR

sip

 

[rangerman]

we will not win in a shoot out we rarely do. its not in our nature to have shoot outs we are grind and pound power running. not an air it out till we score more than them.

 

[AlexD]

I would say 40 or more. The barn will have big plays and score so we will need to score.

 

[graydogg85]

Since the 19 game home winning streak began in 2008, 15 of the 19 opponents were held to 10 points or less. Ole Miss was the highest scoring team and they went for 20 back in 2008.

Bama has given up only 145 points total in those 19 games for a 7.63 avg.

I say Auburn gets 21 and Bama gets 30 plus and could go over 40.

I think those stats are a bit misleading, because truth be told we've faced a ton of bad-to-mediocre offenses in BDS since 2008. The best offensive teams we've played at home during that stretch were probably Ole Miss in 2008, and Arkansas in 2009. In fact, I'd say those two teams are the only ones that we've played at home during that stretch that could even qualify as merely competent offensive teams.

 

[rangerman]

if cam plays they get at least thirty

 

[Alasippi]

we will not win in a shoot out we rarely do. its not in our nature to have shoot outs we are grind and pound power running. not an air it out till we score more than them.

I know it's not in our nature Rangerman, but I don't think we're going to have any choice here.

Auburns run defense is very good. And their defensive front is very good.

Their only real weakness is their secondary.

So like it or not, we have to exploit that weakness.

And that means passing and passing a lot.

I think this game will be kind of like the Auburn-Georgia game. It will come down to one critical play(onside kick) or which team can come up with that one big stop and force the other team to punt.

We're going to have to go outside of our identity to win this one.

NOW---If we can somehow get ahead by a couple of scores and deflate them a bit....then we might can control the clock because we'll have the momentum.

It'll be interesting.

sip

 

[TiderJack]

I think our staff will believe we need to score a lot of points to win this game and our play calling will be agressive (if Scam is playing). I'm thinking we are going to have to out score them and need to score at least 30 to get the win.

 

[JD95]

I think 28 points will win it, and I think we'll get that. Auburn played LSU's defense at home and scored 24 -- I think we can hold them to that in Tuscaloosa. We scored 21 on LSU in Baton Rouge, and we'll do better than that against a weaker defense on our home field!

 

[KrimsonNinja]

I know certain teams match up better with others, but looking at how LSU and Miss State played Auburn, I believe, with homefield advantage and improvements in the secondary, we will only need 31 points to beat Auburn. As we all know Auburn isn't easy to stop, but I think we can hold them under 30.

 

[BamaBuc]

3 & 2009 defense! :biggrin:

 

[wood78221]

3 & 2009 defense! :biggrin:

LOL I support this idea

 

[PacadermaTideUs]

Even with Cam, I don't expect the barn to score more than 24. So 25 should do it. If Cam doesn't play (and at the rate things are going, that's looking more and more likely every day), I think 18 should be enough to win.

So what are the odds that Bama can score 25 on the barn's D? I think very, very good.


Edit: I think the final score will be in the 30-21 ballpark if Cam plays, with BDS rocking a mighty post-game Rammer Jammer.

 

[THE BAMA IRISHMAN]

1 more than the Boogers

Dang Right.

 

[bamacon]

I know it's not in our nature Rangerman, but I don't think we're going to have any choice here.

Auburns run defense is very good. And their defensive front is very good.

Their only real weakness is their secondary.

So like it or not, we have to exploit that weakness.

And that means passing and passing a lot.

I think this game will be kind of like the Auburn-Georgia game. It will come down to one critical play(onside kick) or which team can come up with that one big stop and force the other team to punt.

We're going to have to go outside of our identity to win this one.

Miss. and Miss. St. are the only two teams in the top 30 in rushing offense. I think if Bama attacks the edges they can run on AU because that poor tackling secondary comes into play there. I still say we already saw the Iron Bowl offense preview in the State game.

 

[Nolan]

Anywhere from 28-38 points depending on how many third and short stops we get against them..

 

[deliveryman35]

Bare bones minimum--35.

 

[pdavis26]

u cant go by all those shootouts!!!..they are misleading...look at the road games against good competition...oh...well...only one game at miss st..17-14...im tellin ery1 newton and that offense not as solid on road, even ole miss they struggled cam only had 45 rushing yards...101,000 is what twice as much as scott field or oxford?..and i know its more than cam has been involved in since his days on the bench in the swamp!!...Bama needs 25 at least but will get 30...im calling it here 31-20 Bama!!! RTR