How Xi and Putin’s new friendship could test the US

[TIDE-HSV]

I skimmed through the report linked. To summarize - put their ships on the bottom asap

Agree. Make an iron bottom gulf like Guadalcanal...

 

[TexasBama]

The USAF leadership did not embrace the "more cheaper airplanes" idea. That is not their current ethic.

And our air dominance fighters are 30 and 50 years old.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

And our air dominance fighters are 30 and 50 years old.

They are, however, continually updated...

 

[TexasBama]

They are, however, continually updated...

Sure. The F-15 is an awesome aircraft. But the NEWEST one still being flown is over 25 years old. They are not stealthy. I think at some point upgrades hit a limit.

the F-22 is slated for retirement about 2035. We didn’t build as many as projected in part due to budget constraints, ie spending money in Iraq and Afghanistan. The F-35 is a great plane, but the PTB wanted it to be multi-role, which perhaps has mitigated its air superiority capability. For sure, compared to the F-15 and F-22, it is slow.
The next gen plane under development sounds like a stand-alone fighter/AWACS

 

[Tidewater]

Sure. The F-15 is an awesome aircraft. But the NEWEST one still being flown is over 25 years old. They are not stealthy. I think at some point upgrades hit a limit.

the F-22 is slated for retirement about 2035. We didn’t build as many as projected in part due to budget constraints, ie spending money in Iraq and Afghanistan. The F-35 is a great plane, but the PTB wanted it to be multi-role, which perhaps has mitigated its air superiority capability. For sure, compared to the F-15 and F-22, it is slow.
The next gen plane under development sounds like a stand-alone fighter/AWACS

All good points.
I think CSIS's point was that hardening the parking hangars is probably money well spent now, since the Chinese players destroyed a lot of American aircraft on the ground. And if one F-35 is worth ten J-20s in the air, losing one F-35 on the ground means losing the equivalent of ten J-20s.

 

[TexasBama]

All good points.
I think CSIS's point was that hardening the parking hangars is probably money well spent now, since the Chinese players destroyed a lot of American aircraft on the ground. And if one F-35 is worth ten J-20s in the air, l;osing one F-35 on the ground means losing the equivalent of ten J-20s.

Yes, they did mention about the air war side that if the Chinese catch planes on the ground then it is additive to their cause (but not as negative to their cause as ships getting sunk).

If planes get in the air though, its perhaps akin to 2020 Bama vs. a middling high school team

ETA There is a youtube channel called Mentour Pilot I've watched recently. It's a training pilot (I think for KLM) that discusses in detail air accidents and incidents. Based on the videos I've seen, you could infer that Chinese pilots are lousy

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Sure. The F-15 is an awesome aircraft. But the NEWEST one still being flown is over 25 years old. They are not stealthy. I think at some point upgrades hit a limit.

the F-22 is slated for retirement about 2035. We didn’t build as many as projected in part due to budget constraints, ie spending money in Iraq and Afghanistan. The F-35 is a great plane, but the PTB wanted it to be multi-role, which perhaps has mitigated its air superiority capability. For sure, compared to the F-15 and F-22, it is slow.
The next gen plane under development sounds like a stand-alone fighter/AWACS

To be fair to the F-35, it was not designed for dogfights. It was always intended to be an "over the horizon" plane. An F-16 could take it, if it could ever get close enough...

 

[Tidewater]

The other thing I found interesting was the Marine Littoral Combat units. They were effective, as long as the ammo held out. Once their ammo was gone, they could not be resupplied.

If I was in charge of Taiwanese targeting of anti-ship missiles, I'd target the troops ships. One, those ships probably have weaker damage control procedures than warships. Two, in a society that values sons (and for a few generations has limited population growth by capping families at one child), losing your only son in an aggressive war is a shortcut to political instability in China. That makes for a bunch of ticked off parents.

 

[Tidewater]

Russia's position is basically that of a mendicant. Eventually, China will want to be paid back in long-lost lands...

Saw this today at work.
China imported record amounts of crude oil in 2023
This is interesting. China is getting a lot more crude from Russia than last year. I am not sure how much more Russia can expand the pipeline in the short run.
And, Malaysia is capitalizing on its geography to import Iranian crude and repackaging it as Malaysian crude and exporting to China to evade sanctions on Iran. Nice. This is something we ought to remember next time we are dealing with Malaysia.
Still, I ran the numbers and about 72% of Chinese crude comes through the Straits of Malacca. In the event of a crisis over Taiwan, I'd bet the US will shut that 72% off at the Straits and watch the Chinese economy implode.
In the short run, the power imbalance between China and Taiwan is massively in China's favor. In the long run, it is against China.

 

[Go Bama]

Saw this today at work.
China imported record amounts of crude oil in 2023
This is interesting. China is getting a lot more crude from Russia than last year. I am not sure how much more Russia can expand the pipeline in the short run.
And, Malaysia is capitalizing on its geography to import Iranian crude and repackaging it as Malaysian crude and exporting to China to evade sanctions on Iran. Nice. This is something we ought to remember next time we are dealing with Malaysia.
Still, I ran the numbers and about 72% of Chinese crude comes through the Straits of Malacca. In the event of a crisis over Taiwan, I'd bet the US will shut that 72% off at the Straits and watch the Chinese economy implode.
In the short run, the power imbalance between China and Taiwan is massively in China's favor. In the long run, it is against China.

Just thinking, but an alternate route wouldn't be that much more expensive. Couldn't the oil just be shipped west of Sumatra and south of Java? Much more wide open sea. The Straits are a short cut.

 

[Tidewater]

Just thinking, but an alternate route wouldn't be that much more expensive. Couldn't the oil just be shipped west of Sumatra and south of Java? Much more wide open sea. The Straits are a short cut.

It's not so much that but the oil is coming from a place the PLAN has no ability to protect and the alternative routes are even further away. The Chinese cannot project air and maritime power that far from their shores. Plus, these are not easy to hide and/or invulnerable ships. They are oil tankers, so easy to find and easy to sink. No one would be able to get maritime insurance for a supertanker violating a US embargo on oil for China.
The world would not even have to defeat the Chinese military, just embargo oil and watch the Chinese economy implode. Not even the PLA can deal with a billion hungry people.
I really hope someone is explaining to the CCP that they really do not want to try this by coup de main. getting the Taiwanese to want to be part of China is their best bet. Of course the CCP being such jerks in Hong Kong makes that much more difficult.

 

[Tidewater]

New missile test-fired in the western Pacific.
The US Army fired its new missile system that rattles China in a Western Pacific first. It found its target and sank it.
The US has fielded what it calls "3rd Multi-Domain Task Force," which means it has capabilities that can operate/fight in air, land, sea, cyberspace, and maybe even space itself. Part of the capabilities needed in WestPac are the ability for land-based missiles to sink ships out at sea. Mobile launcher, easily concealable until needed.

China does not like it.

 

[crimsonaudio]

China does not like it.

This means it's A Good Thing.

 

[Tidewater]

This means it's A Good Thing.

Yeah. When I was teaching a course in naval warfare, and used Okinawa as a case study. The Japanese using kamikazes, sank 41 Allied ships and damaged 386. And that was done mostly with manned subsonic propeller planes.
The Taiwanese are manufacturing supersonic Hsiung-feng antiship missiles. If I was advising the Taiwanese, I'd put a bunch of these in hardened bunkers and also a bunch on mobile launchers and destroy the invasion force at sea, where they are most vulnerable.
Taiwan can't put all it's eggs in one basket, but antiship missiles is a good one.
Underwater obstacles (including mines, lots of mines) off potential invasion beaches, and preparing the Taiwanese population to resist occupation through training and caching weapons and ammo at sites around the country would also be good ideas.

 

[Tidewater]

A colleague of mine published this article on the Modern War Institute's web page about how a war with China would manifest itself inside the United States.
"What Would War with China Look Like—in the US Homeland?"
Chinese military futurists, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, a couple of decades ago posited the existence of what they called Unrestricted War. In the West, a tradition developed that was inherently Western and Christian (or at least a development from Christian thought) that became Just War Theory, when to wage war consistent with justice and how to wage war justly. China is neither Western nor Christian, so for these two guys, the restrictions do not matter. Thus, a war between the US and China will manifest inside the US in surprising and nasty ways.

Worth a look.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Yeah. When I was teaching a course in naval warfare, and used Okinawa as a case study. The Japanese using kamikazes, sank 41 Allied ships and damaged 386. And that was done mostly with manned subsonic propeller planes.
The Taiwanese are manufacturing supersonic Hsiung-feng antiship missiles. If I was advising the Taiwanese, I'd put a bunch of these in hardened bunkers and also a bunch on mobile launchers and destroy the invasion force at sea, where they are most vulnerable.
Taiwan can't put all it's eggs in one basket, but antiship missiles is a good one.
Underwater obstacles (including mines, lots of mines) off potential invasion beaches, and preparing the Taiwanese population to resist occupation through training and caching weapons and ammo at sites around the country would also be good ideas.

An invasion fleet would face substantial challenges. Such as the 80-100 mile open water crossing, plus the fact that the Western coast of Taiwan has few places suitable for a large-scale landing. I can only imagine the carnage if they tried an Omaha beach-style invasion.

 

[Tidewater]

An invasion fleet would face substantial challenges. Such as the 80-100 mile open water crossing, plus the fact that the Western coast of Taiwan has few places suitable for a large-scale landing. I can only imagine the carnage if they tried an Omaha beach-style invasion.

I would hope, but the article was more about what would happen within the US if we were to fight a war against China.

 

[Tidewater]

I do not know if anyone got killed or hurt, but the Chinese Navy just did a Leroy Jenkins on the Chinese Coast Guard.

Scarborough Shoals is a flashpoint, claimed by the Philippines and by Beijing. The Philippine Coast Guard was escorting Filipino fishing vessels in the disputed waters. The Chinese Coast Guard was trying to spray water on them.
Then the Chinese Navy stepped to do a L:eroy Jenkins, ... on their own CG vessels.
Well played, ChiCom Navy. Well played.