Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

[CrimsonNagus]

That’s an insane take. We want Georgia to win so we hold a win over the SEC champ and number two seed in the playoff bracket.

Plus, both UGA and Texas are in no matter what. I don’t think either out come hurts our chance any more than they are now but an UGA win helps our SOS/HTH more than a Texas win.

If we're selected, I'll support and pull for my favorite team... I don't think we're up to par, but I assure you there will be AT LEAST 1 team selected that will make us scratch our heads.

My head scratcher is because of the stupid auto-bids the Big 12 gets a team in when their champ will probably be ranked around 14-16. What a joke, they don’t deserve a playoff spot.

 

[Power Eye]

I don’t think it matters at this point. Georgia is in regardless… we are hoping.

Really our fate is decided on two questions

1) Will Miami be ahead of us Tuesday? If the answer is Yes then it’s onto the Gator Bowl thanks for playing. If the answer is No then move to #2

2) How do they evaluate USCe and Bama? H2H normally matters but we’ve seen on several occasions where a committee has ignored an October game in favor of a November surge. Everyone that isn’t drunk on crimson kool aid knows USCe for the last 6 games has been a far better team than Alabama has been the last 6 games. So the question is “Do they end the debate on H2H or do they go on best now”?

Bonus….

3) If we are ranked 11 on Tuesday… does Clemson beating SMU keep SMU in? There is a possibility of them leaving SMU in.

I think people believe the committee is bound by previous rankings, but in truth they can do whatever they want. I think Ole Miss and USCe winning may have given them an out to keep us out.

Understand the committee isn’t bound to the previous rankings, but it would be a jump to move SC above us and Ole Miss, two teams they lost two. Head-to-head matters as does the totality of the season and we heard about that all last year with regards to us and Texas. I realize those were one loss teams and not multiple loss teams, but when comparing similar teams, that has to be the deciding factor.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

Is it as simple as “if we are #11 on Tuesday, we’re in”?

How are you getting us to 11? I don’t see 2 teams falling behind us this week. Miami will not fall all the way to 12. I think Bama with be 12 this week, just ahead of Ole Miss, USCe and Clemson.

 

[81usaf92]

Understand the committee isn’t bound to the previous rankings, but it would be a jump to move SC above us and Ole Miss, two teams they lost two. Head-to-head matters as does the totality of the season and we heard about that all last year with regards to us and Texas. I realize those were one loss teams and not multiple loss teams, but when comparing similar teams, that has to be the deciding factor.

Here is the thing… we’ve heard different things from different committees. So really nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.

 

[colbysullivan]

How are you getting us to 11? I don’t see 2 teams falling behind us this week. Miami will not fall all the way to 12. I think Bama with be 12 this week, just ahead of Ole Miss, USCe and Clemson.

I’m just asking the question.

 

[81usaf92]

How are you getting us to 11? I don’t see 2 teams falling behind us this week. Miami will not fall all the way to 12. I think Bama with be 12 this week, just ahead of Ole Miss, USCe and Clemson.

My fear is that they are going to avoid the debate between “3 loss teams” by putting Miami at 11. Usually the committees take the path of least resistance, and that may just be as simple as # of losses.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

My fear is that they are going to avoid the debate between “3 loss teams” by putting Miami at 11. Usually the committees take the path of least resistance, and that may just be as simple as # of losses.

I think that is exactly what they are going to do. I’ve said from the start that no 3-loss team is getting in and honestly I’m not sure 3 loss teams deserve it unless there are not enough 2 loss or less teams. I don’t think Bama does. You want in then win your games, don’t lose to a bad OU team and a mediocre Vandy team.

 

[B1GTide]

Yeah I get that, but are we pretty much guaranteed to be in if we’re #11?

Yes, unless Clemson beats SMU, then we wait to see again because Clemson would be in. Would a 2 loss SMU drop below Alabama?

IMO, if they rank Alabama 11th then they have said that they value Alabama's wins over Miami's losses. Those same criteria should also drop SMU behind Alabama, but the second loss would be coming in their conference championship game.

So, who knows?

 

[selmaborntidefan]

They said a conference championship game loser wouldn't be "unduly punished" - which gives them quite a bit of wiggle room.

It's kind of like - and ooh boy have they gotten everyone's dander up for a decade now - the benign and often misunderstood phrase "four best teams," which even their original verbiage modified with (I can no longer find it online) four "qualified" teams (or something like that) and the ability to decide when head-to-head counts and when it doesn't mean so much. Same with SOS.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

My fear is that they are going to avoid the debate between “3 loss teams” by putting Miami at 11. Usually the committees take the path of least resistance, and that may just be as simple as # of losses.

Yep, it's 2022 TCU all over again.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

My fear is that they are going to avoid the debate between “3 loss teams” by putting Miami at 11. Usually the committees take the path of least resistance, and that may just be as simple as # of losses.

Last year though the path of least resistance would have been to put undefeated FSU in the playoff but they chose Alabama. So they may take Alabama over Miami.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

My fear is that they are going to avoid the debate between “3 loss teams” by putting Miami at 11. Usually the committees take the path of least resistance, and that may just be as simple as # of losses.

On the other hand, they could have chosen TCU in 2014 and FSU last year, too.

 

[81usaf92]

I think that is exactly what they are going to do. I’ve said from the start that no 3-loss team is getting in and honestly I’m not sure 3 loss teams deserve it unless there are not enough 2 loss or less teams. I don’t think Bama does. You want in then win your games, don’t lose to a bad OU team and a mediocre Vandy team.

if we are really serious about finding best mixed with deserving while honoring the format it would look like this

#1 Oregon
#2 Texas
#3 SMU
#4 Boise
#5 UGA
#6 Notre Dame
#7 Tennessee
#8 Ohio St
#9 Penn St
#10 USCe
#11 Indiana
#12 Arizona St

I think out of the 3 loss SEC teams, USCe has been the best team in the last 6 weeks. However, they lose the H2H argument against both SEC teams who can’t help but embarrass themselves in golden opportunities. There ultimately lies the problem. I seriously believe that they will choose Miami just to avoid deciding between Bama and Ole Miss vs USCE

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Here is the thing… we’ve heard different things from different committees. So really nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.

Child: "Dad, can I go the pool with Tommy?"
Dad: "Go ask your Mom."
Child: "Mom, can I go to the pool with Tommy?"
Mom: "What does your Dad say?"
Child: "He said to ask you."
Mom: "Well, if he says it's okay, I'm fine with it."

THAT is the CFP committee, folks.

Ask your Mom, no, ask your Dad.

 

[81usaf92]

Last year though the path of least resistance would have been to put undefeated FSU in the playoff but they chose Alabama. So they may take Alabama over Miami.

Last year may have been their most controversial next to 2014.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think out of the 3 loss SEC teams, USCe has been the best team in the last 6 weeks. However, they lose the H2H argument against both SEC teams who can’t help but embarrass themselves in golden opportunities.

Committee:
"But it was a two-point road loss in October after playing Ole Miss the previous week. SCAR is playing better now is why we ranked them higher."

 

[The Ols]

I expect Alabama to be ranked 13th in the CFP. If you are, all you need is for Texas to beat aTm to preserve that spot, and one team in front of you to lose. Clemson, SMU and Miami - need one to drop back. That will happen. So just beat Auburn decisively and you are in.

As for not deserving - there will be at least 5 teams in the playoffs who you would destroy. If they deserve to be in it, so does Alabama.

For every LANK kid on the team there are 10 others who are working hard and deserve our support.

Freakin’ nailed it Big…

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Last year may have been their most controversial next to 2014.

And had that 2014 vote occurred in, say, 2021, it wouldn't have been nearly so controversial.

Folks were not used to seeing a team blast another by 52 points and then drop three spots in the rankings. They've seen it a few times now so the shock value has worn off. Everyone was bringing in their antiquated AP poll understanding, completely ignoring some of the weird things that happened with the BCS polls.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I expect Alabama to be ranked 13th in the CFP. If you are, all you need is for Texas to beat aTm to preserve that spot, and one team in front of you to lose. Clemson, SMU and Miami - need one to drop back. That will happen. So just beat Auburn decisively and you are in.

As for not deserving - there will be at least 5 teams in the playoffs who you would destroy. If they deserve to be in it, so does Alabama.

For every LANK kid on the team there are 10 others who are working hard and deserve our support.

Best Damn Tidefans Post, Period.

 

[81usaf92]

On the other hand, they could have chosen TCU in 2014 and FSU last year, too.

2014 they were given the out that neither TCU and Baylor were Oklahoma or Texas. So very few would care that Ohio St got in over them. Last year they took a gamble by not just putting Alabama over FSU but also Texas. I really think Georgia may have truly been the one to have gotten screwed.