Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

[denver]

The legend that is Mike Leech.....still relevant today!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1863784135593984325

 

[Bodhisattva]

With all the confusion, illogic, and stupidity of the 12-team format, the only solution is the to go to 16 teams. The only solution to stupidity is to have more of it, right? Who's with me?

You wanna get nuts? Let's get nuts!

 

[Cruloc]

This is the way I see this playing out Sunday:

If all favorites win:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State

If some upsets happen:
1. Oregon (just don't see PSU beating them)
2. Georgia
3. Iowa State
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. Texas
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama / SMU
12. UNLV

My goodness these byes are so bad.
- SMU and Boise both win....they are 3 and 4
- SMU loss / Boise win....Boise gets 3 / Big 12 gets #4 / Clemson gets 12
- SMU and Boise both lose.....Big 12 gets #3 / Clemson get #4 / UNLV gets #12

 

[CB4]

We're currently the last at-large team in the playoff.

The way I heard Manuel's statement, none of the 3-loss teams that aren't in a conference championship game will jump us. So USCe and OM are out.

That doesn't mean we can't fall out of the playoff. Just that neither USCe nor OM will be there in our place.

UTw and UGA are in regardless of the outcome of the SECCG. It's just a question of who gets a bye and where the loser is seeded. IOW, no effect on us.

Same thing for Oregon and PSU in the B1G.

The real issue for us is the ACCCG. If SMU wins, Clemson is out (they're currently behind us anyway) and we're safe. But if Clemson wins, they get the automatic spot as conference champs. The question then becomes how far, if any, would SMU fall?

Right now, thery're #8. Would they fall out altogether? If so, we're still in. If not, Clemson gets our spot....not because the committee perceives them as a better or even more deserving team...but because they're ACC champs.

My personal take is that if SMU loses, they might fall some. But the committee has already said that participants in conference championship games won't be unduly penalized for a loss. So if SMU loses, but doesn't get totally blown out and embarrassed, I might see them falling. But not all the way out.

Bottom Line: SMU wins: we're in. Clemson wins by less than 35 or so: we're out. Go Ponies!

Side Note: It's our own fault we're in this position. If we don't yak up hairballs against both Vandy and OU, we're in regardless. Might even be in the SECCG.

My position exactly. They ARE leaving the door open for two bids for the ACC should Clemson win.

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

...they could match Bama against Hamas HS and most of the country would watch to pull for an upset of Bama.

"If Alabama invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil on X." Danny Kanell

 

[TideEngineer08]

This is the way I see this playing out Sunday:

If all favorites win:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State

If some upsets happen:
1. Oregon (just don't see PSU beating them)
2. Georgia
3. Iowa State
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. Texas
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama / SMU
12. UNLV

My goodness these byes are so bad.
- SMU and Boise both win....they are 3 and 4
- SMU loss / Boise win....Boise gets 3 / Big 12 gets #4 / Clemson gets 12
- SMU and Boise both lose.....Big 12 gets #3 / Clemson get #4 / UNLV gets #12

Byes were a horrible idea.

They wanted to make the conference championship games "mean something." Ok. Auto-bids, but not auto-byes. The four best teams get the bye. Of course, I get that then they might have to give Notre Dame a bye and they don't ever have to play an extra game in a conference title game and that wasn't fair. So? ND is automatically disqualified from ever getting a bye!

CFB is run by weak, feckless, cowardly morons.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

There's TWO other things I'd love to see:

1) Us absolutely smoke some "northern team in December" to end that farcical argument.
2) Us win it all - and kick the stomachs of the "Saban quit because he was no longer the only one able to pay players" nonsense out forever.

 

[Power Eye]

If Clemson wins big, Alabama will wind up at 10, IMO.

This is very reminiscent of the 2017 playoffs. We wanted Ohio St. to beat Wisconsin, but not by too much, which would potentially put a 2 loss Ohio St. into the playoff over us if they embarrassed undefeated Wisconsin. Luckily, the game was relatively close. I believe there was a long delay due to artificial turf bubbling up.

Now we either want an SMU win or a blowout victory by Clemson. I don't see a Clemson blowout win in the cards. Someone said it earlier, now that the only drama is really potentially between Alabama and SMU, the narrative will switch to the hypothetical situation of how much SMU can lose by.

 

[DawgAlum2054]

IMO, this would be a stunning development, beyond shocking if it would happen. Miami will not make it but Alabama will. They do not want teams who have beaten no one over a team, who along with UGA, has beaten 3 ranked teams (5,14,19), more than anyone else in the country and Alabama beat them, just because they have one fewer loss.

Also, and this might be bigger: They don’t want to give the vastly inferior ACC 2 and the SEC, bulging with 7 teams at 9-3 or better, two 8-4 teams, 3 entrants. It would be colossally unfair. The SEC slaughtered the ACC in reg season play. In summary: The SEC is a 4 bid league, the ACC a one bid league in most years. (OU, Alabama’s bane, #13 in SEC standings, is #28 in Sagarin.)

i don’t disagree with you by any means

the problem is that the committee has said they “will not punish teams for playing in conference championships”

if this is true and Clemson beats smu, then what happens to smu? Does smu stay in the top 12? If they stay in the top 12 then Clemson jumping up and smu staying in the top 12 leads to bama being bumped

regardless of how any of us feel or think of whah should happen, smu is the deciding factor

smu beats Clemson and bama is in. Smu loses to Clemson and things get hairy

 

[countrytider]

They are not trying to mistreat Alabama, they are taking heat for insisting on including them. They know Alabama and the SEC are more deserving than Miami/SMU and the ACC, so they’ve set it up to include them - not hurt them.

I agree. We may well get screwed over but so far up to this point the CFPC has shown they are willing to do the right thing.

Booger McFarland and many of the media nuts are the only ones pushing the Alabama hate.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

i don’t disagree with you by any means

the problem is that the committee has said they “will not punish teams for playing in conference championships”

if this is true and Clemson beats smu, then what happens to smu? Does smu stay in the top 12? If they stay in the top 12 then Clemson jumping up and smu staying in the top 12 leads to bama being bumped

regardless of how any of us feel or think of whah should happen, smu is the deciding factor

smu beats Clemson and bama is in. Smu loses to Clemson and things get hairy

It probably depends on how Clemson won. They said "unduly" punished and said last night "it's possible" that SMU would drop below Alabama.

No one really knows. But obviously the best case for Alabama at this point is for SMU to win so there is no question.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

i don’t disagree with you by any means

the problem is that the committee has said they “will not punish teams for playing in conference championships”

if this is true and Clemson beats smu, then what happens to smu? Does smu stay in the top 12? If they stay in the top 12 then Clemson jumping up and smu staying in the top 12 leads to bama being bumped

regardless of how any of us feel or think of whah should happen, smu is the deciding factor

smu beats Clemson and bama is in. Smu loses to Clemson and things get hairy

They spout nonsense every single year and more times than not completely disregard anything they've said in previous weeks when they actually make the final selection that counts.

They get away with it because they never really get challenged about it.

Anyway my point is they can make it sound like CG teams are safe but if SMU loses they will be out.... no doubt about it.

The SECCG and B1GCG teams are the only 4 teams that are safe that are in this position.

If they wanted to have wiggle room to push Bama out they would have put them at 12 or left them at 13.

I'm not arguing that Bama should be in or that they deserve to be in because I don't think either are true but it's clear what the committee's intention are with these rankings.

They want either Bama vs ND or Bama vs PSU because it will draw major ratings.

 

[statgrad96]

If they leave SMU in with a Clemson victory, then that would be 3 ACC teams (I know, but I consider ND as a De Facto ACC team since they are in the ACC in every sport except football). I can't imagine that the ACC would have the same number of playoff teams as the SEC...

 

[teamplayer]

One thing that I find curious is that no one questions Notre Dame. Yes, they are 11-1, but they have not beaten a ranked opponent and have arguably the worst loss of any school in contention (Northern Illinois).

I mean, they don't even compare well to Indiana...

With very few exceptions, Notre Dame has been overrated for the last 50 years.

 

[KrAzY3]

Every single fan "disgusted with this new coaching staff" will extend immediate forgiveness if it ends in a national title, just like Saban was off the hook for the 2017 Iron Bowl loss just weeks later.

I've had my share of complaints but I'd take it one step further. I'd be willing to help go build his statue.

As far as this playoff in general (not necessarily responding to you), I hate this thing but the last thing I want to see is it expand even further.

The logical step to me is would be two things. Remove the auto-byes entirely. Make it the top 4. Remove one 5 conference champs automatic inclusion and reduce is 4. The Big 12 is not a power conference anymore anyway, just make it the top 4 ranked conference champs. I'd do away with that entirely but this would clean things up considerably. So, the bracket doesn't have that insanity with the byes and we wouldn't be talking about a Big 12 team knocking off the #12 team right now.

Finally, I'm hoping for a bit of chaos in part because I just don't like the fact that the committee exists. As you've pointed out they generally get it right, but they flirt with getting it wrong and do unnecessarily dumb stuff along the way. So if Georgia wins, Oregon wins, UNLV wins for instance, that creates a mess of two loss teams.

Do they try not to move Boise State down? I think not. Does Penn State with two losses stay ahead of the Ohio State team that beat them? Does their magic head to head matter more than playing in a conference championship game? I'd kind of like their job to be made difficult, but even then I still want SMU to win, heh. I more so than anything just want Alabama to have a shot.

 

[DawgAlum2054]

They spout nonsense every single year and more times than not completely disregard anything they've said in previous weeks when they actually make the final selection that counts.

They get away with it because they never really get challenged about it.

Anyway my point is they can make it sound like CG teams are safe but if SMU loses they will be out.... no doubt about it.

The SECCG and B1GCG teams are the only 4 teams that are safe that are in this position.

If they wanted to have wiggle room to push Bama out they would have put them at 12 or left them at 13.

I'm not arguing that Bama should be in or that they deserve to be in because I don't think either are true but it's clear what the committee's intention are with these rankings.

They want either Bama vs ND or Bama vs PSU because it will draw major ratings.

I’ve said the entire time it will be tv viewership and revenue based on many of these decisions. The committee will never admit that, but we know it

same reason they would love to squeak Miami in if they could

 

[tusks_n_raider]

I’ve said the entire time it will be tv viewership and revenue based on many of these decisions. The committee will never admit that, but we know it

same reason they would love to squeak Miami in if they could

The whole format is dubious and unbalanced too with the Auto Bids and Byes.

I don't have a problem with teams like BSU, SMU, UNLV etc having a bid but because of them being pigeonholed into the Top 4 it's punishing stronger teams.

Oregon is slotted to face Tenn or tOSU for a 2nd time and Texas and UGA will have to play 3 times but the winner from a PSU vs ASU/Bama or ND vs Bama/ASU gets SMU or Boise next.

The whole thing is out of whack.

It's just going to get worse and worse because I already have a problem with 9-3 teams being considered and they will keep expanding until we have 8-4 and 7-5 teams.

I hate all of it.

 

[colbysullivan]

Lots of stress happening.

We are at 11. We likely wont move higher regardless. Like CA suggested above and I mentioned earlier, the B1G wont have more teams than the SEC. You can be assured of that.

so, Bama is likely 11 regardless-of everything else. The ACC deserves 1 team. That’s all they will get. The B12 also deserves 1. The G5 gets one. Notre Dame gets the last.

Clemson losing makes it easier to sell, but I think we are ahead of SMU if they lose. ACC teams have dropped 5-6 spots when they lose. Their SOS is too low.

It’s also important to realize just because Bama is ranked 11, that doesn’t mean they will be SEEDED 11.

 

[BamaInBham]

i don’t disagree with you by any means

the problem is that the committee has said they “will not punish teams for playing in conference championships”

if this is true and Clemson beats smu, then what happens to smu? Does smu stay in the top 12? If they stay in the top 12 then Clemson jumping up and smu staying in the top 12 leads to bama being bumped

regardless of how any of us feel or think of whah should happen, smu is the deciding factor

smu beats Clemson and bama is in. Smu loses to Clemson and things get hairy

That was an informal quote, not part of the criteria and the actual quote was “they wouldn’t unduly punish a team for losing…”. That leaves some wiggle, though IMO, they don’t need it.” What did they do to UGA last year? Lost a 3 point SECCG game, though Bama almost dominated the game. A 3 point game to a team on an 11 game win streak. They dropped out of the playoff, replaced by 2 other one loss teams, one of whom had not played as tough of a schedule.

The bottom line, and I could be wrong, is that the ACC is not going to get 2 bids, especially preventing the SEC from getting its 4th bid. Also, they don’t want to put a team who has not beaten a ranked team all year over a team who has beaten, not just 3 ranked teams, but #s 5, 13, 19 just because they have one fewer loss. The SOS, their first criteria would be meaningless.

All schedules are not equal. The SEC had 7 teams 9-3 or better, 2 8-4 teams. One reason Alabama lost to 2 lesser bowl teams was that they were coming off of big wins the previous week over then #1 UGA and then at ranked LSU. The other team had an off week to better prepare and were at home. SEC teams face this all of the time. The only team that had it worse in the SEC was UGA. What Sankey did to them was criminal. Alabama, Texas and OM all on the road and UT at home. If UGA gets boat-raced by Texas, they better not drop them out, and they won’t.

I don’t think they will drop Alabama out - nor should they no matter how SMU/Clemson goes.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

With all the confusion, illogic, and stupidity of the 12-team format, the only solution is the to go to 16 teams. The only solution to stupidity is to have more of it, right? Who's with me?

You wanna get nuts? Let's get nuts!

OK, let's go nuts.

Expand the playoff to 128 teams. It's only three more rounds and everybody in the FBS is in, so there's no whining about who got left out.

Everybody gets a trophy!

Couldn't decide whether to use blue font or not.