It's official - Russia enters Crimea

[TIDE-HSV]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

The report that Boris Nemtsov was preparing when he was murdered has been published.
The editors had a hard time finding someone to publish the book in Russia. Publishing houses feared reprisals. One publishing house finally agreed, as long as they could do so anonymously.
The book is called Путин. Война. ("Putin. War.")
I would not recommend trying to download the Russian version, due to virus/worm concerns.
Here, however, is an analysis written by a Russian dissident in Moscow:
Pavel Felgenhauer
It seems around 150 Russian soldiers were killed in fighting in Ukraine in August when the separatists were about to lose it all and Putin would not allow them to lose, and another 70 in fighting in and around Debaltsevo just after the Minsk cease fire was signed, as the separatists wanted to seize the town of Debaltsevo so they could connect two large Russian-held towns of Donetsk and Lugansk by road and railroad.


The authors of the report found the graves of the Russian soldiers (carried back to Russia for burial) and spoke with families and surviving Russian soldiers themselves. This report is at least part of the reason Putin wanted Nemtsov killed.

I think the final result is going to be partition. These ventures where a majority tries permanently suppress a substantial ethnic minority just lead to decades of trouble. Witness the Turks and Kurds, for example. The Turks won't even admit that there are "Kurds." They call them "Mountain Turks."

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I think the final result is going to be partition. These ventures where a majority tries permanently suppress a substantial ethnic minority just lead to decades of trouble. Witness the Turks and Kurds, for example. The Turks won't even admit that there are "Kurds." They call them "Mountain Turks."

I agree. If I was to advise the Ukrainian President, I would recommend amputation of Donetsk and Lugansk. Amputate the diseased limb to save the body. Of course, amputating these Russian-majority regions would cause a massive lurch to the West on the part of what is left of Ukraine: application for EU membership, application for NATO membership. Ironically, Putin's actions may bring NATO to within 750 km of Moscow and artillery range of Rostov-na-Donu.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I agree. If I was to advise the Ukrainian President, I would recommend amputation of Donetsk and Lugansk. Amputate the diseased limb to save the body. Of course, amputating these Russian-majority regions would cause a massive lurch to the West on the part of what is left of Ukraine: application for EU membership, application for NATO membership. Ironically, Putin's actions may bring NATO to within 750 km of Moscow and artillery range of Rostov-na-Donu.

Exactly! I've said all along that Putin was come up with a much more undesirable result, once those Russian-speaking folks were gone from Ukraine. It's also one of the reason that I've said all along that he's a tactician - and a good one - but he's no strategist. He's a gambler with the gambler's addiction. Thus, it's on to the Baltic. Then we'll see if he's pushed the West too far. All three of those countries are NATO members and they all have substantial non-integrated Russian minorities, although many have departed for Russia, following the fall of the USSR. There's no doubt they are discriminated against - made to learn the local language* - whereas their Russian had been an advantage and they had no reason to learn the endemic language. This is the sort of thing that gets up the back of Putin's Russian pride...

*(Estonian is a bear to learn - distant kin only to Finnish, Sami, Hungarian and Turkish in Europe.)

 

[mittman]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I agree. If I was to advise the Ukrainian President, I would recommend amputation of Donetsk and Lugansk. Amputate the diseased limb to save the body. Of course, amputating these Russian-majority regions would cause a massive lurch to the West on the part of what is left of Ukraine: application for EU membership, application for NATO membership. Ironically, Putin's actions may bring NATO to within 750 km of Moscow and artillery range of Rostov-na-Donu.

I am not sure the west has the political will to accept a Ukrainian membership into NATO at this time. Our bluffs keep getting called and Putin's (if he is bluffing) don't. Kerry's trip IMO a good example. For once CNN pretty much summed up my feelings. It was pointless diplomacy ( using the word diplomacy for this is probably too kind) :

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/13/opinions/aron-kerry-russia-meeting/

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I am not sure the west has the political will to accept a Ukrainian membership into NATO at this time. Our bluffs keep getting called and Putin's (if he is bluffing) don't. Kerry's trip IMO a good example. For once CNN pretty much summed up my feelings. It was pointless diplomacy ( using the word diplomacy for this is probably too kind) :

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/13/opinions/aron-kerry-russia-meeting/

Yeah, I don't think anyone wants Ukraine in NATO. I certainly don't. I'm not willing to send young Americans to die for Kharkov.
My only point is that Putin's hyper-aggressiveness will make that more likely than it was two years ago. Two years ago, I'm not sure most Ukrainians wanted into NATO. Today, I'd bet a lot more of them do. I'm fairly certain that most Ukrainians want into the EU now.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Exactly! I've said all along that Putin was come up with a much more undesirable result, once those Russian-speaking folks were gone from Ukraine. It's also one of the reason that I've said all along that he's a tactician - and a good one - but he's no strategist. He's a gambler with the gambler's addiction. Thus, it's on to the Baltic. Then we'll see if he's pushed the West too far. All three of those countries are NATO members and they all have substantial non-integrated Russian minorities, although many have departed for Russia, following the fall of the USSR. There's no doubt they are discriminated against - made to learn the local language* - whereas their Russian had been an advantage and they had no reason to learn the endemic language. This is the sort of thing that gets up the back of Putin's Russian pride...

*(Estonian is a bear to learn - distant kin only to Finnish, Sami, Hungarian and Turkish in Europe.)

I am reading a book on the Baltic Revolutions (I bought it used from, interestingly, the Richard M. Scrushy Library in Vestavia Hills). One thing that surprised me is that Latvian nationalist parties in the early 1990s, pointed out that the Geneva Convention IV, Article 49 forbids military occupying powers from moving in citizens of their own country into occupied territory (I checked the Geneva Convention Art. 49, and it does forbid that). Calling the Soviet era a military occupation means that in 1994 the very presence Russians in Latvia is illegal. Of course, ethnic Russians in Latvia took a very dim view of such pronouncements. Western liberal countries in NATO & the EU have told Latvians to cool it, and they have. Still, at the back of the mind of ethnic Russians in Latvia has got to be the memory that Latvian nationalists once threatened to evict them.
Lithuania is about 8% Russian, but is also about 5.6% Polish, and Lithuanian Poles, ironically, speak Russian and vote with the Russian party
Latvia is 26% Russian.
Estonia is 25% Russian.
In both of the latter two, there are localities with substantial Russian majorities.

 

[mittman]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Yeah, I don't think anyone wants Ukraine in NATO. I certainly don't. I'm not willing to send young Americans to die for Kharkov.
My only point is that Putin's hyper-aggressiveness will make that more likely than it was two years ago. Two years ago, I'm not sure most Ukrainians wanted into NATO. Today, I'd bet a lot more of them do. I'm fairly certain that most Ukrainians want into the EU now.

An interesting read I remembered and dug up on this is here:

http://www.spiegel.de/international...ings-between-europe-and-russia-a-1004706.html

 

[mittman]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I am reading a book on the Baltic Revolutions (I bought it used from, interestingly, the Richard M. Scrushy Library in Vestavia Hills). One thing that surprised me is that Latvian nationalist parties in the early 1990s, pointed out that the Geneva Convention IV, Article 49 forbids military occupying powers from moving in citizens of their own country into occupied territory (I checked the Geneva Convention Art. 49, and it does forbid that). Calling the Soviet era a military occupation means that in 1994 the very presence Russians in Latvia is illegal. Of course, ethnic Russians in Latvia took a very dim view of such pronouncements. Western liberal countries in NATO & the EU have told Latvians to cool it, and they have. Still, at the back of the mind of ethnic Russians in Latvia has got to be the memory that Latvian nationalists once threatened to evict them.
Lithuania is about 8% Russian, but is also about 5.6% Polish, and Lithuanian Poles, ironically, speak Russian and vote with the Russian party
Latvia is 26% Russian.
Estonia is 25% Russian.
In both of the latter two, there are localities with substantial Russian majorities.

Evictions of Germans in Kaliningrad come to mind. They did a more thorough job evicting and replacing the population in that area than the others. I read an interesting take comparing the Oblast to Putin's argument on Crimea awhile back.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

An interesting read I remembered and dug up on this is here:

http://www.spiegel.de/international...ings-between-europe-and-russia-a-1004706.html

I'm not sure the EU "lost" Russia. Putin and Pan-Russists have always argued that Russia is not the West, nor the East, but something in between. Still, Neo-Cold War was not inevitable,

I read an article by Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. He is a Offensive Realist. He said the Donbass War is the Wests fault, because Ukraine is obviously in Moscow's sphere.
I take a different view. Ukraine may be in Russia's neighbor and their interests in Ukraine are more intense that Europe's interests, but Mearsheimer's position sounds apologetic or exculpatory. I do not excuse Putin for invading a foreign country (twice) and killing thousands of citizens of a foreign country. I think that was a crappy thing to do.

 

[mittman]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I'm not sure the EU "lost" Russia. Putin and Pan-Russists have always argued that Russia is not the West, nor the East, but something in between. Still, Neo-Cold War was not inevitable,

I read an article by Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. He is a Offensive Realist. He said the Donbass War is the Wests fault, because Ukraine is obviously in Moscow's sphere.
I take a different view. Ukraine may be in Russia's neighbor and their interests in Ukraine are more intense that Europe's interests, but Mearsheimer's position sounds apologetic or exculpatory. I do not excuse Putin for invading a foreign country (twice) and killing thousands of citizens of a foreign country. I think that was a crappy thing to do.

I agree.

The title does not do the article much justice. From what I gathered in the article's timeline (I will have to go back and read it again myself) the Tymoshenko issue stalled the talks and when Putin realized that they were actually getting close enough on everything else he tanked them.

Even if what would be left of Ukraine wanted to go back to the table without all of the bluster and requirements for ridiculously large IMF loan guarantees (a big IF IMO), and if the EU wanted to talk (not as big IMO but another big IF), are they scared enough of Putin's Russia for it to stop them?

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

I agree.

The title does not do the article much justice. From what I gathered in the article's timeline (I will have to go back and read it again myself) the Tymoshenko issue stalled the talks and when Putin realized that they were actually getting close enough on everything else he tanked them.

Even if what would be left of Ukraine wanted to go back to the table without all of the bluster and requirements for ridiculously large IMF loan guarantees (a big IF IMO), and if the EU wanted to talk (not as big IMO but another big IF), are they scared enough of Putin's Russia for it to stop them?

From talking to colleagues (Polish colleagues, so consider the source), the Ukrainians have a reputation of being country bumpkins who are too lazy or disorganized to fix their own country. Ukraine is run by oligarchs, according to the Poles (and, ironically, the Russians).
The general opinion of citizens of other EU countries is that the Ukrainians only want in the EU so they can sit back and enjoy the international dole, much like Greece and Spain. That does not sit well with north Europeans, especially the Germans. "There are enough people in the hammock already."

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Ukrainians capture wounded Russian Spetsnaz (Специальные Назначения or Special Purpose) soldiers outside Shchastya (40 some-odd kms inside Ukraine).

Ukraine says they will put these guys on trial.

This will be interesting.
The Russians, of course, deny that these dudes were still in the Russian armed forces.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin's War in Ukraine
I discovered this today.
Using the Russian version of Facebook (VKontakt), geolocating/getagging and crater analysis proves what everyone knew all along: Putin has ordered Russian troops into the fighting in Ukraine.
For political reasons, the Russians have denied that the Spetsnaz soldiers the Ukrainians have captured are in fact Russia soldiers on active duty. They are "retired" the Kremlin says. Nice, order them into harm's way, and when they get caught, like Mission Impossible, disavow all knowledge of the captured soldiers.
What I found truly appalling in this report was that the Russian government has denied that Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were even there. The report examines three Russian soldiers, two of whom were killed in action. The bodies are brought home (away from Moscow) and the Russian government tells the family they died "doing their duty." One soldiers was married, the other engaged. In one case, once journalists (there are still a few of those in Russia) started asking questions, the government removed the soldier's name from his headstone and told the family to shut up.
It is one thing to send young men to risk their lives, but it absolutely burns me up that the government that sent them would turn around and deny that they died pursuant to those orders. That's low, even for Russians.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

This helps: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32913929

 

[mittman]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

The problem with discovering something everyone already knows is nothing really changes. It may push Putin to just say something like, "Well if you are going to accuse me of it I might as well do it."

What I find interesting is how well Ukraine seems to be holding up.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

The problem with discovering something everyone already knows is nothing really changes. It may push Putin to just say something like, "Well if you are going to accuse me of it I might as well do it."

What I find interesting is how well Ukraine seems to be holding up.

Breedlove's Bellicosity: Berlin Alarmed by Aggressive NATO Stance on Ukraine

Breedlove, though, repeatedly made inexact, contradictory or even flat-out inaccurate statements. On Nov. 18, 2014, he told the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that there were "regular Russian army units in eastern Ukraine." One day later, he told the website of the German newsmagazine Stern that they weren't fighting units, but "mostly trainers and advisors." He initially said there were "between 250 and 300" of them, and then "between 300 and 500."

I do not understand what Der Spiegel is up to here, whether they just have a bias or whether they are just too stupid to understand what an inexact science intelligence is.
Then there's this gem:

Berlin sources also say that it has become conspicuous that Breedlove's controversial statements are often made just as a step forward has been made in the difficult negotiations aimed at a political resolution. Berlin sources say that Germany should be able to depend on its allies to support its efforts at peace.

Diplomacy is a means to an end, just like military power, informational power and economic sanctions. Diplomacy is not an end in itself to which policy should be sacrificed. I believe western policy should be to get the Russians out of Ukraine, not to deliberately ignore their presence so negotiations can continue.
Der Spiegel's self-stultification here is amazing.

 

[mittman]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Breedlove's Bellicosity: Berlin Alarmed by Aggressive NATO Stance on Ukraine


I do not understand what Der Spiegel is up to here, whether they just have a bias or whether they are just too stupid to understand what an inexact science intelligence is.
Then there's this gem:

Diplomacy is a means to an end, just like military power, informational power and economic sanctions. Diplomacy is not an end in itself to which policy should be sacrificed. I believe western policy should be to get the Russians out of Ukraine, not to deliberately ignore their presence so negotiations can continue.
Der Spiegel's self-stultification here is amazing.

Fascinating read. Inaccurate intelligence is a given. Almost always it is a best guess and inexact interpretation of data and images. I don't think Breedlove and Nuland are really helping things with some of their statements though. The Russian numbers do not have to really matter. They are there whether they have 20,000 or 40,000. They could make their points just using what the intelligence agencies can agree upon.

IMO when there is an agreed upon cease fire, diplomacy must take center stage. When the other side appears to be just doing it to solidify their positions, one must call them on it diplomatically and solidify their own positions.

"доверяй но проверяй."

When you say out of Ukraine, do you mean the Crimea as well? I am not sure if that is something anyone is going to expect to accomplish.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Fascinating read. Inaccurate intelligence is a given. Almost always it is a best guess and inexact interpretation of data and images. I don't think Breedlove and Nuland are really helping things with some of their statements though. The Russian numbers do not have to really matter. They are there whether they have 20,000 or 40,000. They could make their points just using what the intelligence agencies can agree upon.

Good point. If a single Russian soldier is in Ukraine, it is illegal. I am just struck by the extent to which Der Spiegel is looking for a distraction from the heart of the matter that there are Russian soldiers in Ukraine. It appears to me that there was a big spike in August when the separatists were about to lose, so Putin sent Russian units in, and late January/early February when Putin wanted to grab Debaltsevo so he could connect Donetsk and Lugansk.

IMO when there is an agreed upon cease fire, diplomacy must take center stage. When the other side appears to be just doing it to solidify their positions, one must call them on it diplomatically and solidify their own positions.

We don't have negotiations for the sake of having negotiations. We talk to achieve policy objectives without resorting to shooting. Der Spiegel seems to be on the cusp of clapping their hands over their eyes and saying, "Hey, I don't see any Russian soldiers here at all. Problem solved."

"доверяй но проверяй."

Indeed.

When you say out of Ukraine, do you mean the Crimea as well? I am not sure if that is something anyone is going to expect to accomplish.

The Ukrainian position is that even Crimea is still part of Ukraine, but I agree, that ship has probably sailed. I see the two as separate (and separateable) issues. I would even recommend to the Ukrainians that they let the DPR and LPR territory go. They are a fatal bait and letting them go would result in Ukraine taking a giant lurch westward.
Still, getting rewarded for invading a neighboring country sticks in my craw a bit.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Russian army moves mobile crematoria to Ukrainian border to be ready to burn bodies of Russian KIAs.
This is not a good sign.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Re: It's official - Russian enter Crimea

Call me superstitious, but anytime a country begins 'surreptitiously cremating' folks I get a little weirded out...