Let me just say on Wilson that his interest in Florida is well documented at this point. He's been open about that, and if he did end up signing with Florida, it couldn't be considered a surprise.
Having said that, one of the reasons for ongoing optimism for 'Bama here is that Wilson continues to keep saying, in sum and substance, "Well, in the two or three days before NSD, me and my family will sit down and figure out what's best for me." And it's precisely those kind of situations, where you hash it out with family, that kids often stay closer to home. As a general rule of thumb, if you're recruiting a kid from a pretty good distance and you don't have him locked in as you enter the final hours, you are rarely going to win the last-minute toss-up with the family against the close-to-home school.