JessN: LSU preview: No hype too big for battle of juggernauts

[colbysullivan]

There was a discussion about this stat in another thread a few weeks back. What's interesting to me about it is that at first glance, you'd assume the opponent attempted fewer passes because they had sustained success running the football. But for the most part that wasn't the case. Only LSU in 2010 had appreciable success running the football. However, each of those four teams were very effective and efficient in their downfield passing games. The only tried and true method to consistently beat a talented, healthy Nick Saban defense is efficient downfield passing. Games where quarterbacks throw multiple TD passes, have completion percentages of 60% or higher, and average upwards of 14 yards per completion.

The money question is: does LSU have the horses to pull that off against this Alabama defense? We'll find out Saturday night.

Lattimore ran all over us. He only had 93 yards, but had 2 TDs. We couldn't stop him in short yardage.

 

[NativeTider]

Alabama was 10th in rushing defense in 2010 giving up 110.15 yds/game. We are #1 this year yielding only 44.88 yds/game.

That is a big, big difference. I just don't see LSU running the ball on us this year with any consistent success.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Noticed your user name. Have you requested that it be changed to #14?

I'll be happy to accommodate him...

 

[NationalTitles18]

I'll be happy to accommodate him...

I'm hoping to have to bug you AGAIN soon!!!

 

[Fishhead]

Why is that, Fish?

Because Les Miles?? Seriously, I have no idea. But I wouldn't doubt for a minute it's because Jasper (30) could be confused as someone else, then go in there and rip of a 30 yd run on a fake...because he was very athletic. But it's probably just because Miles is a strange dude.

 

[magnanga_boy]

Hello people! I know I am completely off topic here, but please redirect me to the right thread (if one exists on this topic). But I will be coming down to T-town tomorrow and will ge spending the next four days there, not just to visit my brothers (Arie and Cyrus Kouandjio) but also to have a good time and enjoy the game on Saturday. The question is, who's actually going to the game and who will be tailgating? I would like to crash a couple of tailgating parties (if invited). You can inbox me if you want. Thanks and sorry for breaking this thread.

 

[Johnwants#15]

I'll be happy to accommodate him...

Should have done it sooner but haven't took time to send a PM ,,, hopefully it will be a short lived moniker.
Hit me Earle.
Thank you sir.

 

[Johnwants#15]

Hello people! I know I am completely off topic here, but please redirect me to the right thread (if one exists on this topic). But I will be coming down to T-town tomorrow and will ge spending the next four days there, not just to visit my brothers (Arie and Cyrus Kouandjio) but also to have a good time and enjoy the game on Saturday. The question is, who's actually going to the game and who will be tailgating? I would like to crash a couple of tailgating parties (if invited). You can inbox me if you want. Thanks and sorry for breaking this thread.

We tailgate at Central Tuscaloosa High School which is a little outa the way,, but we put out some major food..
You are welcome to come by and hang out... PM me if you wanna get directions and my cell.

 

[markenk]

I'm with Jess on this one. I see us as the underdog in this game. While we lead in most statistical categories, this is football not baseball.

The one thing that must happen in this game for us to win is the crowd factor. This has to be THE LOUDEST game ever in the BD, period. Or else I don't see us winning at all.

Hopefully not too many fans get too drunk by the game time, and be able to put their game face on and play a HUGE part in team's success. We have to take the advantage of the home field, or else it might be a long night for us.

 

[JessN]

Just wanted to add my 2 cents to this, since we got nine pages of copy between the time I posted the article and the time I could get back to the computer to address comments.

1) Brad Wing - What I call a "2 a.m. mistake." Because of the jersey number similarity, I just scanned over from my number on the stat sheet and entered the wrong name. Around lunch today, I caught myself thinking that I didn't recall mentioning Wing's name. I just couldn't do anything about it at that point until I got home.

2) How will LSU score 20? Because it's not that hard for a team with a decent offense to do, especially if they get set up in plus-territory thanks to an interception or long return, and LSU has shown to be plenty capable this year of generating both. I usually don't get irked by fan comments, as fans are just being fans, but one of the perils of having a team with a great defense is that you begin to think you're invincible after awhile. Holding a team to teens or single digits is not easy to do.

3) Why pick LSU? As someone noted, the preseason articles had Alabama losing this game. I tend not to deviate from those articles unless a team has proven to be better or worse once the season gets going. Neither LSU nor Alabama has surprised anyone, really. Both teams are who we thought they were, two cents to Denny Green.

4) Honey Badger: I noticed a couple of posters complaining that Mathieu is more effective as a nickel back than as a corner. That's exactly what I wrote in the DB section of the preview. I do wonder sometimes if people read the whole thing, or just read the intro and the summary and then start posting.

Other than that, I expect blowback any time I write anything short of 38-0 Bama. I'm used to it.

 

[buzzincuzzin]

Thank you for answering my question with the logic included. As a fan I'm still not convinced they can get out of the teens but,,, I'm sure we will be out-punted all night. Shorter field =3-6pts would push it up around 20-or-so.

 

[Perrett4Bama]

I still think LSU's undisciplined play on defense is gonna come back to hurt them.

34 to17 Bama.........

 

[TideEngineer08]

3) Why pick LSU? As someone noted, the preseason articles had Alabama losing this game. I tend not to deviate from those articles unless a team has proven to be better or worse once the season gets going. Neither LSU nor Alabama has surprised anyone, really. Both teams are who we thought they were, two cents to Denny Green.

I need to go back and read your preseason article. Alabama has impressed me a great deal this year, much more than I expected. I'm not shocked we're 8-0, I'm fairly shocked we've dominated every single team we've played. I don't remember that ever happening this deep into the season. Of course, that may say a good bit more about our opponent's strength, or lack thereof, than Alabama's. Alabama has looked a good bit more impressive than LSU. Alabama doesn't have a 19-6 win over an average MSU team on its resume, or giving up over 500 yards to anyone on its resume. LSU still won those two games without much of a struggle, but I don't see anything but one half of bad football against Tennessee on Alabama's slate, which was promptly overcome by a 15 minute blitzkrieg which buried Tennessee under an avalanche of points.

Having said all of that, your prediction doesn't shock me. You did this in 2009 as well, vs. Florida. You're more right than wrong by a good margin for a reason. But I certainly hope you're proven wrong this weekend, as I'm sure you hope as well.

 

[TheAccountant]

Other than that, I expect blowback any time I write anything short of 38-0 Bama. I'm used to it.

It's certainly understandable when you pick 'Bama to lose at home in one of the biggest games in program history. Granted, historically in this series home field hasn't been much of an advantage but in the past couple of years with both teams evenly matched it has.

I just can't imagine walking into the stadium before the game believing we will lose.

 

[JessN]

It's certainly understandable when you pick 'Bama to lose at home in one of the biggest games in program history. Granted, historically in this series home field hasn't been much of an advantage but in the past couple of years with both teams evenly matched it has.

I just can't imagine walking into the stadium before the game believing we will lose.

And even if it's "understandable," I don't care. My job is to analyze the game, not lead the cheerleaders onto the field. I don't understand why people get angry over it. Nothing any analyst says is going to have an effect on the game.

It's like when my mother would forget to wear her lucky earrings to a game. "Mom," I told her, "the team is not looking up into the stands saying, 'NO! Mrs. Nicholas forgot to wear her silver elephants! We're all gonna die now!'."

When I stop being able to divorce my fanhood from the work is the day I need to quit.

 

[Crimson Cat]

Although I disagree, I'm not surprised at all with Jess' prediction, I expected him to pick LSU.
The only real edge I'd give LSU over Bama really is in special teams (kicking game/field position) which may or may not be the difference...but I truly believe Bama's overall defense is better than LSU's as is our running game with the TR/EL/JF combo with a solid oline, and that will be the difference in the game for Bama.
I expect LSU to totally prepared and Les to pull a trick play or two in this one to try and get an early edge but I don't think it will be enough. Typically Bama has taken the opponents best shot early in the 1st-2nd qtr and then CNS & staff makes adjustments and Bama takes control of the game from there. But then again as we all know this isn't a typical game for either team. Still think Bama wins it.

 

[TheAccountant]

And even if it's "understandable," I don't care. My job is to analyze the game, not lead the cheerleaders onto the field. I don't understand why people get angry over it. Nothing any analyst says is going to have an effect on the game.

It's like when my mother would forget to wear her lucky earrings to a game. "Mom," I told her, "the team is not looking up into the stands saying, 'NO! Mrs. Nicholas forgot to wear her silver elephants! We're all gonna die now!'."

When I stop being able to divorce my fanhood from the work is the day I need to quit.

If you know "blowback" is coming I don't understand why you seem to be defensive about it. I don't see anyone angry over it, just voicing their disagreement same as you are.

Honestly, I think you are slow playing us so you can break out the hyperbole hammer when we win.

 

[bnhonest]

I aint mad at you, Jess! When I coach my kid's little league team, I am harder on him than I am the other kids. I do it to avoid being percieved as partial to my own kid. Ive been following you since 2003. Sometimes I think you do the same in your prognostications. I get it. But sometimes I think its ok to treat your own like the studs they really are.

I feel ya on your prediction. Im hoping youre wrong, though.

 

[redrock]

I'm not angry, upset, outraged, or ticked off. I respect Jess' opinion and that is what it is, an opinion based on analysis and study of personnel on both sides.

That being said, I respectfully disagree with LSU winning this one.

1. One team has a legit Heisman candidate - That would be us, Richardson.
2. One team has three players on the Lombardi award list - That would be us, Hightower, BJ, and Upshaw. LSU has zero.
3. One team has two on the Outland trophy watch list - That would be us, BJ and Vlachos. LSU has zero.
If LSU has this overpowering, super power d-line, where are the accolades? Why aren't their team stats on defense against rushing #1 in the nation? Why don't they lead the nation in sacks? Who have they played that has a o-line like ours?
4. One team has two players on the Butkus award list - That would be us, Hightower and Upshaw. LSU has zero.
Hightower and Upshaw are hybrid linebackers and DE. So, you can count their skill sets for both LB and DL. They both at times will put a hand down and add that quick DL component to the line. When you add their talents to the DL who wins the DL rating? Answer = Bama.
5. One team has two players on the Jim Thorpe award list - That would be us, Kirkpatrick and Barron. LSU has one, Claiborne.

In matching up personnel, it is my opinion that both sides of our line win the game in the trenches. Richardson and his buddies will stomp a mudhole in much of the LSU vaunted defense. LSU will get hit in the mouth and do like I've seen LSU do a number of times over the past few years, when they get matched against a bigger badder bully they start getting injured and are dragged off the field in regular intervals in the second half.

I do think we have a home field advantage. The noise that is going to be produced at this game will effect the best of QB's and will be a factor.

Our team will be more angry, upset, outraged, ticked off, motivated and talented than LSU. Bama wins this one.

 

[Jazzman]

Jess, I've respected your opinions for many years now and still do, but I humbly disagree with this one. I think our defense, as a group is better. I also think our offense, as a group is better. I believe it will be a close battle with Alabama wearing them out in the fourth quarter. We may not win by much, but I truly believe we will win on Saturday night.