I think one thing people are overlooking is that Arkansas's last 3 games have been at home. This one is on the road where, even including the A&M neutral site game they won, Arkansas has a negative 12 point scoring differential. Their biggest road win is 5 points over Ole Miss(who LSU just annihilated at their place). They've scored at least 38 in every home game this year, so i'm not really sure there little hot streak is more than having 3 straight home games.
I think Death Valley makes all the difference. Not saying LSU covers the 14 points spread, but I do believe they win, because Arkansas isn't really a good road team with all the slow starts. The third quarter has been LSU's best this year, and if they do have a slow start against LSU, it could get ugly. Not sure I see it getting ugly, but it's possible.