Question: Moving forward…will there be more diversity of teams winning the NCG?

[Tide&True]

Is there starting to be parity in college football due to the portal and NIL?

 

[AlistarWills]

Seriously doubt it. You may have some noise made by those outside the top 4 because of the portal mess but when it comes down to it, I really think the ones currently at the top are there for a reason.

 

[Cruloc]

Well, you've got two questions here.
1. More teams winning the NCG?
- Maybe, but they'll all come from the SEC or Big 10. Its still gonna be the blue bloods.

2. More parity due to the portal and NIL?
- Yeah, simply because big time recruits want fast returns and quick playing time. Talented kids that put the work in though are still gonna beat talented kids that think they can show up and be superman. You'll wind up with more big time recruits flaming out in the SEC and Big 10, but moving to say Syracuse or Wake Forest....or even down further to places like South Alabama or Troy...and really thriving vs the lesser talent filled rosters.

 

[KrAzY3]

That's the goal of all these changes (forced parity), and I think in terms of having a dynasty or one team dominating a few seasons, that's going to be nearly impossible.

The combination of NIL, the portal, and the long slog through the postseason means depth will be severely challenged no matter who you are.

If you're the best team, that's not going to mean much, unless you are also the healthiest team.

The other thing though that will also begin to happen is the Big 10 and the SEC will begin to pull further away from the other teams in college football. There is a big gap in earnings, and this will compound over time.

It won't be instant though, so there might be a period were teams like Oklahoma St., Arizona, Clemson, FSU and so on actually have cakewalks to the playoffs and may be some degree or success because they stay healthy and play a cupcake schedule.

 

[GulfCoastTider]

History shows that the more things change, the more they stay the same. The same small collection of football programs have won the vast majority of championships for many decades. The deck gets reshuffled every few years but they are always the same cards.

The two programs that have produced the teams that play for the title Monday night have been there before. There have been ground-shaking developments since either or both had their days in the sun. Everyone at the times of those changes were convinced that "this is gonna kill college football." But it didn't.

We really want to think it's different this time. That is only because we're the generation witnessing the changes this time. And like every generation before us, "we're special." Nah. Same cards. Same fans.

 

[mlh]

It will be interesting to see when players start "opting out" next year - after game 6 or 7, when it becomes obvious they won't make the playoffs?

 

[Superdad]

Whatever happens, thank you NCAA for ruining the only sport that I have really enjoyed watching in my 55 years on earth.

 

[CrimsonTitles]

I mean, it is two straight years with an obscure team in the natty. Though, Washington isn't that obscure. They just haven't won anything in like 30 years

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Whatever happens, thank you NCAA for ruining the only sport that I have really enjoyed watching in my 55 years on earth.

The NCAA didn't do this.

The NCAA spent 33 years denying teams the right to play games on television (thus increasing the money each school got for TV rights fees) and 61 years doing everything they could to prevent a national championship GAME much less a playoff from happening. Then they got creamed at the Supreme Court on TV, which forced them to back off on other issues - and then got creamed again by NIL.


The NCAA, like the designated hitter, NASCAR Car of Tomorrow, and Buddy Biancalana is a bad idea.

But they actually prevented the schools from cutting off both feet more than once, too, and a lot of folks don't see that. The NCAA was viciously opposed to letting the Fiesta Bowl move to New Year's Day, but their own lawyers told them it was a losing position and accept it - which expanded NYD bowls from 4 to 5. They had bad ideas like TV bans for probation, selective enforcement, and the death penalty.

but they're not to blame for this one. They're just following the inevitable.

 

[denver]

The conference implosion is the wildcard....Mega conferences SEC/B10 should dominate but with the fluidity of what is happening now there is no way to predict what is in store for the CFP

 

[TideEngineer08]

Yes.

NIL and Unthrottled portaling will make it so.

True, there may someday soon be only 2 mega conferences. But the point is the diversity of teams winning a title will grow unless something is done about the wild west infrastructure that is now in place.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

Yes, I think so. The end of college football as we know it is coming. I no longer watch the NFL for three primary reasons. #1 Parity, #2 greedy/selfish players and #3 too many playoff teams making the regular season rather meaningless. I see all 3 of those now coming to college football so I see a day when I start to lose interest in college football.

 

[Power Eye]

The short answer is yes. There will be more teams winning the national title versus what we have seen over the last 25 years. You aren't going to have teams, like us, winning every other year like we did from 2009 - 2017. Even shorter dynasties like Clemson and UGA are going to be next to impossible due to NIL, the portal and a twelve team playoff. With that said, the pool from which a national champion will come from will be smaller than the NFL. There are probably twenty teams, at most, that can realistically win a national title in the next 8 - 10 years.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I mean, it is two straight years with an obscure team in the natty. Though, Washington isn't that obscure. They just haven't won anything in like 30 years

Last year was a fluke that will be eliminated by the 12-team playoff because TCU would have had to play an extra game - because the committee 100% would have dropped them if it wasn't a four-team playoff last year.

Georgia, Michigan, Clemson, and Utah would have gotten byes last year. After those four, your rankings would (I think) be:

5) Kansas State (conference champion - Big 12)
6) Tulane
7) Ohio State
8) TCU (I have a hunch since 8 plays 9, we'd get TCU but they'd get home to avoid criticism)
9) Alabama
10) Tennessee
11) USC or perhaps Washington
12) Penn State

Unless Tulane, Utah, K-State, or TCU won, it would be an expected name. And only Utah would have a bye.

As far as Washington, they've been at the periphery a few times. They PROBABLY should have won the 1984 national championship over BYU, the split one with Miami in 1991 (and having seen them all play, they were probably the best or 2nd best team in the US in 1990), they ended Miami's long winning streak in 1994, they had an argument for inclusion in 2000, and they made the 2016 playoff, so this isn't their first rodeo.

I'm not saying Washington is one or even two steps behind Oklahoma historically, but they've had ebbs and flows, including a couple of legendary coaches (Darrell Royal did one season there before going to become a Texas legend, Jim Owens, and Don James) and an 0-12 season just 15 years ago.

Washington winning it wouldn't be a colossal surprise. And I "get" it's been awhile but they've had some decent teams.

What will 100% NOT happen is a team like Cincinnati or Mississippi State or UCF winning the thing. All 3 of those teams MIGHT make the tourney the same year, but it isn't going to happen. The addition of Texas and OU just made their road to a title even more difficult (MSU), and the others aren't going to start with the week off advantage, either.

I expect virtually all national titles will be won by one of the 29 teams to win one since 1936, and I'd exclude BYU, Minnesota, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Maryland from that list already, knocking it down to 23.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Transfer Portal. It makes a big difference.

 

[B1GTide]

Same teams will win because great coaching is still required, and the teams that can afford to pay the most will be able to attract and KEEP great coaches. I do not just mean head coaches. A complete roster of coaches, coordinators and assistants is required to win at a championship level. Then you add in the cost to pay for recruiting, NIL, infrastructure, facilities, etc.

More teams will make it to the dance, but the same teams will go away with the trophies.

 

[Bruce014]

I think it'll be the same elite programs but we probably won't see back-to-back or 2 out of 3 dominance. It's simply going to be too hard. Look at our past two games. We've had to play back to back # 1 teams and (had we won Monday) we it would've been back-to-back-to-back games against #1 or #2. That's insanely difficult.

 

[Tide&True]

I think it'll be the same elite programs but we probably won't see back-to-back or 2 out of 3 dominance. It's simply going to be too hard. Look at our past two games. We've had to play back to back # 1 teams and (had we won Monday) we it would've been back-to-back-to-back games against #1 or #2. That's insanely difficult.

If you look at the 2024 schedule it doesn’t get any easier.

 

[crimsonaudio]

If you look at the 2024 schedule it doesn’t get any easier.

Yes, but as several posters above have said - the same teams that can win it all now will be those able to do so going forward. Tougher schedules means better recruiting and development will continue to shine.

Even this year isn't a huge anomaly - UM is a blue-blood and UW has been in the playoffs before.

IOW, I suspect the same 10-15 teams that have a 'real shot' at winning the CFP will continue to do so.

 

[Superdad]

The NCAA didn't do this.

The NCAA spent 33 years denying teams the right to play games on television (thus increasing the money each school got for TV rights fees) and 61 years doing everything they could to prevent a national championship GAME much less a playoff from happening. Then they got creamed at the Supreme Court on TV, which forced them to back off on other issues - and then got creamed again by NIL.


The NCAA, like the designated hitter, NASCAR Car of Tomorrow, and Buddy Biancalana is a bad idea.

But they actually prevented the schools from cutting off both feet more than once, too, and a lot of folks don't see that. The NCAA was viciously opposed to letting the Fiesta Bowl move to New Year's Day, but their own lawyers told them it was a losing position and accept it - which expanded NYD bowls from 4 to 5. They had bad ideas like TV bans for probation, selective enforcement, and the death penalty.

but they're not to blame for this one. They're just following the inevitable.

I'll take your word for it. Who should I be thanking?