JessN: Ole Miss preview: Bama will find out whether Rebels are for real

[fundytide]

I agree my friend. We always seem to play up or down to the level of our competition. We will win this game not from the kicking game but because we haven't shown everything offensively. We know Drake is going to be pumped for this game and I expect a few wrinkles will be added to get him in space in ways we haven't seen yet. I also think that OJ Howard gets a few more seam looks this week. Jess makes many good points but playing two cupcakes at home doesn't prepare you for Bama on the road. One major concern is Coker throwing picks but hopefully CLK will work on ways to minimize his limitations. It was good seeing Coker climb in the pocket a few times against MTSU. I think he may have to do that a lot more often in this upcoming game. Chad Kelly has looked very impressive but I want to see how he handles a hostile road environment under the lights on primetime. I wouldn't mind seeing Allen get about three sacks! I concur with my brother, fundytide, HAVE FAITH.

I agree that Kiffin hasn't shown everything offensively- not even close- and that Chad Kelly is a potential meltdown in waiting, given his lacklustre history with impulse control.

In evaluating match-ups I find myself returning again and again to the same three principles: run the ball, defend the run and be positive in net turnovers. I think we can control the pace of the game much more than Ole Miss has been accustomed to so far this year and force them to execute on offense and defense repeatedly, under pressure. It will very likely be a tough, close game but like our chances.

 

[bamanix]

this is a critical game this early. home advantage will make a difference. I look to the offensive line doing their job for our backs, and protecting the qbs. our defense, needs to watch those corner plays rush and pass. we need a good rush at times, and hitting Kelly will make him think more. he feeds on his success. we need to place doubt. kicking game needs to begin the season with this game. how in the world can vegas make us a 8 and a half point favorite? I am looking at a field goal victory.

 

[RobK]

Throw out the results of both teams for the first two games. We could hang 70 on UT-Martin and Fresno, as likely could Wisconsin.

I think the intangibles favor us heavily (which is why I think Jess picked us despite favoring them in so many categories):

*Overall talent level
*Playing at BDS
*Revenge factor
*Coaching
*Unleashing the whole playbook

Ole Miss does put more experience and upperclassmen on the field (as a result of fewer turning pro early) and is seeing their two-year run of stud recruiting classes hit their prime.

I see only three things that could make this game close or beat us: if our secondary has a bad day, if we have no FG kicking success whatsoever, or we commit a bunch of turnovers.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

not flaming any posters, but some really read too much into Jess game breakdown.
the game is play on the field. we know what Alabama has done up to this point, Wisconsin and MTSU are solid teams.
Fresno St allowed 4 tds numerous times last season and loss to Wyoming at home by 4 TDs last year! despite what Jess said about the bulldogs being scrappy and all, they are not the same team as they were under their former coach. UT Martin is a bad FCS team. period.
its funny that some football fans get enamored with high scoring offenses, Hugh Freeze still has the same "show off high school football coach" mentality who happens to get paid at a D1 school. he runs up the score on lowly teams as if to try to impress and intimidate future opponents! this is not high school football man.

I expect a tough battle at BDS, but we have better players all over the field. this game has been on the minds of our players since that bitter loss, they will come ready and we win at home.

 

[davefrat]

we play our game and we smash them, we play around with them and it's too close to call, we play sloppy and we lose by a touchdown or more.

I think we play around with them and narrowly escape with a win, the board nearly explodes, Earl has to threaten to expel half the members and then we turn our attention to freaking out about how we are going to fair against GA in two weeks.

 

[TideMom2Boys]

Or Bama will find out if Bama is real...:wink:

This is the biggest thing. I think this game is more about Bama than Ole Miss. It should answer some questions on if we are ready for the rest of our schedule.

 

[92tide]

Throw out the results of both teams for the first two games. We could hang 70 on UT-Martin and Fresno, as likely could Wisconsin.

I think the intangibles favor us heavily (which is why I think Jess picked us despite favoring them in so many categories):

*Overall talent level
*Playing at BDS
*Revenge factor
*Coaching
*Unleashing the whole playbook

Ole Miss does put more experience and upperclassmen on the field (as a result of fewer turning pro early) and is seeing their two-year run of stud recruiting classes hit their prime.

I see only three things that could make this game close or beat us: if our secondary has a bad day, if we have no FG kicking success whatsoever, or we commit a bunch of turnovers.

hell, we could have easily put 50+ on whisky had we not pulled our foot off of the gas midway through the third quarter

 

[Lost in TN]

hell, we could have easily put 50+ on whisky had we not pulled our foot off of the gas midway through the third quarter

Don't forget the two missed field goals that would have put our number at 41 even with us pulling our foot off the gas.

 

[rgw]

I think JessN is spot on with this analysis and like I pointed out above I don't think our DL win is possibility a big deal. We've struggled with pass protection and Ole Miss is a great pass rushing front. They don't run the ball well and we're mostly built to start with the run game first as a DL. So position v. position in terms of talent and depth, you could argue we are superior on the DL but I tend to believe that Ole Miss has the DL that could make the biggest impact on the game when you compare the O v. D matchups. Ole Miss has a heckuvalot of talent in their top 22 to 40 players, we're deeper but they've got some studs at critical positions, a bit more experience, and some scheme advantages with the tempo and spread against our more traditional pro-style defensive personnel.

I think the real question is how JessN still picked Bama after that assessment.


I'm hopeful that our DL is a bit more capable of affecting the QB this season and the CBs hold up well enough that the pressure can get there for negative plays. Right now, we haven't seen a ton to demonstrate the supposed off-season change. But a run-heavy opponent followed by a "sleepy" performance against MTSU doesn't really tell us much about that anyway. This is the game where all the talk about a change in down linemen can be put to the test. I'm also pretty optimistic that maybe Kelly had it come to him a bit too easy in the first two weeks so the speed of an SEC game will overwhelm him or lead to stupid throws where he underestimates the quality of the athletes on defense.

People forget that Ole Miss was Alabama's first big road test with Blake Sims and I think the environment and their defensive speed kinda got to him a bit. Maybe we can return the favor to them?

 

[92tide]

Don't forget the two missed field goals that would have put our number at 41 even with us pulling our foot off the gas.

i had forgotten those

 

[MOAN]

JessN picked Bama to win, Moan picks Bama to win. Ole Miss won last season in Oxford, Bama won the SEC championship. Could that scenario reverse this season? Possibly if JessN is correct with his analysis.

 

[teamplayer]

This is hilarious. I was leaning towards picking a 28-27 game, and I was undecided on who I would pick to win. I was leaning towards Ole Miss, but then I started thinking about home field and Saban and revenge games. I think I will now pick 28-27 Bama. Ok, I'm off to the pick the score thread.

 

[JessN]

Again, to reiterate the end summary graph -- the LB category is a tough call because OM has played the backups more than the starters thus far. It's really a tossup. If this was Week 6 we'd have a clearer picture of what's going on there but the LB group more than any other has so many question marks around it on the OM side. In the end, I went with experience and factored in the problems Alabama continues to have in pass defense at the LB spot. There is a grand debate every year over who is "the best Saban player at Alabama" but there is no debate in my mind over who is missed the most -- LB C.J. Mosley. While he as at UA you didn't have to worry about coverage from the linebackers.

Flip the LB pick and it's 5-3 for an opponent that does not typically fare well at Bryant-Denny. The OL group for OM has issues as well. What this come down to for me, and I don't typically say this, is the QB battle, Coker vs. Kelly. I'm usually looking in the LOS for the key matchup but that's not where it's at for this game, IMO. It's under center. It's going to be the guy who sticks with the plan the best and doesn't get rattled.

p.s.: My 24-point prediction for UA includes a made FG. Just don't ask me who makes it. (g)

 

[BubbaOne]

Jess as always your analysis brings us all back to earth.

My issue is Saban has all the #1 recruiting classes yet Ole Miss about beats us in every category.
This will sting but development of talent is on the coaches. I have my question about several.

My concern is Saban has yet to really stop these fast paced offenses. OK I have heard the Boa Constrictor theory
but when I watch all is see is fast runs around our ends and quick passes that allows the opposition to move right down the field

Until we can stop HUNH and get off the field on third down (Alabama has to be the worst 3rd down team in America)

Another concern our OL could not stop MTSU or Wisconsin I suspect Ole Miss is more talented that either.
Until the OL can block for the run and protect the pass rush our offense will stall.
Coker shows flashes but he is too prone for the home run and let's be honest he has strength to make the long ball
just lacks the accuracy. Bateman runs around better but has his own issues.
Amazes me that Morris was in lead in late camp with steadiness but must lack something that puts Coker or Bateman ahead.
If those two flub I would play Morris and if that fails might as well put Barnett out there.

My real fear is Ole Miss will exploit their up-tempo knowing CNS has trouble with it then. Our vaunted DL is not set up to stop HUNH
so if our QB's are off or Henry cannot get thru the line we could be in for a real disappointing loss.

I always think 'Bama rises to the challenge and this will be one. So I still pull for my Tide to win.

 

[kat4bama]

My gut tells me we win by 14. RTR!!!

 

[fundytide]

Jess as always your analysis brings us all back to earth.

My issue is Saban has all the #1 recruiting classes yet Ole Miss about beats us in every category.
This will sting but development of talent is on the coaches. I have my question about several.

My concern is Saban has yet to really stop these fast paced offenses. OK I have heard the Boa Constrictor theory
but when I watch all is see is fast runs around our ends and quick passes that allows the opposition to move right down the field

Until we can stop HUNH and get off the field on third down (Alabama has to be the worst 3rd down team in America)

Another concern our OL could not stop MTSU or Wisconsin I suspect Ole Miss is more talented that either.
Until the OL can block for the run and protect the pass rush our offense will stall.
Coker shows flashes but he is too prone for the home run and let's be honest he has strength to make the long ball
just lacks the accuracy. Bateman runs around better but has his own issues.
Amazes me that Morris was in lead in late camp with steadiness but must lack something that puts Coker or Bateman ahead.
If those two flub I would play Morris and if that fails might as well put Barnett out there.

My real fear is Ole Miss will exploit their up-tempo knowing CNS has trouble with it then. Our vaunted DL is not set up to stop HUNH
so if our QB's are off or Henry cannot get thru the line we could be in for a real disappointing loss.

I always think 'Bama rises to the challenge and this will be one. So I still pull for my Tide to win.

Maybe the category ratings reflect the inaccuracy of recruiting rankings, not a lack of development by the coaching staff. That said, Ole Miss has recruited really well over the past few years. And two games into the season, there isn't enough information just yet to be definitive on that. This game will be the litmus test for both teams.

I don't think anyone has yet stopped these kind of offenses but Alabama has slowed them down. We didn't have the personnel last year to seal the edge the way we needed to and when we did that successfully, we often gave up big runs up the middle (especially by the QB)- again due to personnel limitations. I think we are much better suited in the 'front seven' to seal the edge and plug the middle against spread offenses than we were last year. We have more depth up front and more range and speed at linebacker. I haven't seen opposing receivers with much YAC this year and that's really important against spread teams.

I think this week we will see Bama using the same approach as we did last year against Missouri in the SECCG- the best way to dull a speed rush from the DL is to run right at them. I think we'll see that in combination with designed QB roll-outs. I'll bet we'll see more runs with a guard pulling as well. Ole Miss is going to get a full dose of power football and downhill running and the dividends for that are paid in the second half. I think this game will be won in the fourth quarter by the team that has the mental and physical stamina to finish.

As for the QBs, they are still developing- as expected- but I for one am glad that we are more diverse in our passing game than we were last year. Ole Miss can't key on just one guy but our QB has to make the right reads on those critical passing plays. I do believe Coach Kiffin has some wrinkles in store for Ole Miss to keep them from stacking the box. Personally, I'd like to see how they do against 2 TE sets where we can run or throw.

As for the DL, we have the depth this year to platoon but I think we are going to be in nickel and probably dime packages for a lot of this game unless and until Ole Miss proves that they can run the ball.

I think this is going to be a wild and exciting game to watch and the team that is on the plus side in turnovers wins the game. Our RBs need to run downhill and hold onto the ball and our young DBs need to show their ballhawking skills on Saturday. I believe they will, too.

 

[rgw]

Again, to reiterate the end summary graph -- the LB category is a tough call because OM has played the backups more than the starters thus far. It's really a tossup. If this was Week 6 we'd have a clearer picture of what's going on there but the LB group more than any other has so many question marks around it on the OM side. In the end, I went with experience and factored in the problems Alabama continues to have in pass defense at the LB spot. There is a grand debate every year over who is "the best Saban player at Alabama" but there is no debate in my mind over who is missed the most -- LB C.J. Mosley. While he as at UA you didn't have to worry about coverage from the linebackers.

Flip the LB pick and it's 5-3 for an opponent that does not typically fare well at Bryant-Denny. The OL group for OM has issues as well. What this come down to for me, and I don't typically say this, is the QB battle, Coker vs. Kelly. I'm usually looking in the LOS for the key matchup but that's not where it's at for this game, IMO. It's under center. It's going to be the guy who sticks with the plan the best and doesn't get rattled.

p.s.: My 24-point prediction for UA includes a made FG. Just don't ask me who makes it. (g)

The nice thing for Ole Miss LBs is that their front four can cover them up despite really being a group that most teams with a good interior OL group would love to grind on all day in the run game. I'm interested to see what the run game plan is for their front 6/7. I tend to believe it will be predicated on using the DL aggression against them to get their front creased for Henry v. LB/Safety opportunities.

 

[92tide]

The nice thing for Ole Miss LBs is that their front four can cover them up despite really being a group that most teams with a good interior OL group would love to grind on all day in the run game. I'm interested to see what the run game plan is for their front 6/7. I tend to believe it will be predicated on using the DL aggression against them to get their front creased for Henry v. LB/Safety opportunities.

i think we will see a lot of drake too

 

[capnfrog]

I look for Ol Miss to stack the box, knowing we will be run heavy. If Coker gets hot it will open up the run game. My worries are that,
#1. they stop the run all day and force us to pass
#2. We continue to have problems stopping the long ball
#3. we continue our struggles with field goals.

 

[twofbyc]

Again, to reiterate the end summary graph -- the LB category is a tough call because OM has played the backups more than the starters thus far. It's really a tossup. If this was Week 6 we'd have a clearer picture of what's going on there but the LB group more than any other has so many question marks around it on the OM side. In the end, I went with experience and factored in the problems Alabama continues to have in pass defense at the LB spot. There is a grand debate every year over who is "the best Saban player at Alabama" but there is no debate in my mind over who is missed the most -- LB C.J. Mosley. While he as at UA you didn't have to worry about coverage from the linebackers.

Flip the LB pick and it's 5-3 for an opponent that does not typically fare well at Bryant-Denny. The OL group for OM has issues as well. What this come down to for me, and I don't typically say this, is the QB battle, Coker vs. Kelly. I'm usually looking in the LOS for the key matchup but that's not where it's at for this game, IMO. It's under center. It's going to be the guy who sticks with the plan the best and doesn't get rattled.

p.s.: My 24-point prediction for UA includes a made FG. Just don't ask me who makes it. (g)

I think Kelly gets sacked 4 times, maybe 5 if Tunsil doesn't play. Bama's D line is going to abuse Ol' Spit.