Pate's Bama Win-Loss prediction 2024 (video)

Bamabuzzard

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I agree that UGA probably isn't what they were a couple years ago, but if we beat them by double digits this year Kirby may pull an Urban and fake a heart attack.

That would be just terrible.
After watching our Oline take them to school in the SECCG I know this year's Oline (which is supposed to be better) has the potential to do the same thing. Especially if their DL isn't upgraded from last season. I just wish our OL had performed all season how they did in that game.
 

mlh

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I'm still not convinced that UGA is "all that" this year. I think they'll drop a couple of games and I would not be surprised if one of those is in T-town. I think CKD's offense will give them fits.
 

MikeInBama

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We were a hair's breath from being 9-3 last year and likely to be the first Saban team not to win at least 10 since 2007. The sack stat must and I believe will improve but the defense can't take a step back.
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gtgilbert

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If we can beat UGA this coming season, we have a great chance to beat anyone, so it really doesn't matter how we beat them if we can beat them.

Same thinking applied to our opponents over the last 15 years.

I don't think many if any of the opponents we faced who got the rare win over us did much hand-wringing over stats...other than the final score.

Beat the best teams we play in whatever way we can.

But from your response, I take it that you'd still be upset with Milroe if we beat UGA this coming season exactly like we did last year.
That got me thinking, so I went and watched this:

which has all the plays from Milroe in the SECCG.

after watching that, I wouldn't use the word upset, but I certainly wouldn't be happy about the level of play from the QB position. Other than the last drive to kill the clock, that was a pretty subpar performance. We barely had over 300 yards for the entire game. There were lots of WRs running open, throws not being made, holding the ball too long and generally just not being on schedule.

After watching our Oline take them to school in the SECCG I know this year's Oline (which is supposed to be better) has the potential to do the same thing. Especially if their DL isn't upgraded from last season. I just wish our OL had performed all season how they did in that game.
After looking at the game stats and the plays from the video above, I'm not so sure the OL did as well as we would like to think. 306 total yards and barely over 100 rushing in total just isn't really that great. We averaged under 3 yards per carry. 4 sacks given up also isn't great, although some of that had to do with holding the ball too long so not 100% on the OL and there was one just total bust in pass pro from Proctor that looked like he either completely executed wrong, or an adjustment was not called to correct the pass pro after the rusher shifted over to the edge.
 

tusks_n_raider

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That got me thinking, so I went and watched this:

which has all the plays from Milroe in the SECCG.

after watching that, I wouldn't use the word upset, but I certainly wouldn't be happy about the level of play from the QB position. Other than the last drive to kill the clock, that was a pretty subpar performance. We barely had over 300 yards for the entire game. There were lots of WRs running open, throws not being made, holding the ball too long and generally just not being on schedule.



After looking at the game stats and the plays from the video above, I'm not so sure the OL did as well as we would like to think. 306 total yards and barely over 100 rushing in total just isn't really that great. We averaged under 3 yards per carry. 4 sacks given up also isn't great, although some of that had to do with holding the ball too long so not 100% on the OL and there was one just total bust in pass pro from Proctor that looked like he either completely executed wrong, or an adjustment was not called to correct the pass pro after the rusher shifted over to the edge.
Sub-par is being kind imo.

His 2 best throws were the TD’s.

The Flare-Out/Wheel route to Jam was on time and accurate and the Throw to Burton in the EZ was Perfect.

The rest was a HOT Mess.

Late throws, High Throws, Under throws, bailed out on some throws, Bad TFL, Bad Sacks.

It’s all last year though and we’ve beat it to death but yeah I’ll be disappointed if we can’t improve the QB play from that game.
 

gtgilbert

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I keep reminding myself that JM hasn't had an established QB coach in previous seasons. Lotsa talent, I'm hoping with real coaching we'll see him approach his ceiling.
JM has done work with private QB coaches every off-season period since he finished his senior season in HS. With BOB it's pretty hard to tell. he'd worked with some excellent QBs over time, but it's not clear how much of that was them already being good versus him developing them. I was actually pretty impressed with what CTR was doing, or at least was trying to do. He made a lot of changes that aren't completely obvious just watching casually.
 

crimsonaudio

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JM has done work with private QB coaches every off-season period since he finished his senior season in HS. With BOB it's pretty hard to tell. he'd worked with some excellent QBs over time, but it's not clear how much of that was them already being good versus him developing them. I was actually pretty impressed with what CTR was doing, or at least was trying to do. He made a lot of changes that aren't completely obvious just watching casually.
I get it - I've been pretty vocal about my feelings about JM.

But at this point, with an all-new staff, he appears to be the current forerunner, which makes me wonder.

I'm an eternal optimist, so that factors in...
 

gtgilbert

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Means Bama won in spite of him, and the defense totally shut Beck down.

Also means Georgia had several turnovers, and Alabama immediately turned one into a NOT.

Means the receivers made several plays on 50/50 balls because Kirby tries to take what you do best away from you. That would be, until shown otherwise, the deep ball.
let's not forget:
  • Bowers was very, very limited in that game due to injury and didn't play that much
  • McKonkey was even more limited with an injury, and barely played at all
  • Another starting WR was completely out for the game
UGA's entire offense was based around Bowers and all the other route concepts were based off what he did b/c UGA knew he was going to get extra attention.

It's like missing JAMO and Metchie down the stretch in the playoffs...
 

gtgilbert

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I get it - I've been pretty vocal about my feelings about JM.

But at this point, with an all-new staff, he appears to be the current forerunner, which makes me wonder.

I'm an eternal optimist, so that factors in...
gotcha - and it was reported that last weekend JM was hitting a lot of short and intermediate routes in 7v7. That's a really good sign and I'm hopeful that means the coaches were only calling route concepts with the short and intermediate stuff to force him to continue to develop there.
 

Bamabuzzard

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That got me thinking, so I went and watched this:

which has all the plays from Milroe in the SECCG.

after watching that, I wouldn't use the word upset, but I certainly wouldn't be happy about the level of play from the QB position. Other than the last drive to kill the clock, that was a pretty subpar performance. We barely had over 300 yards for the entire game. There were lots of WRs running open, throws not being made, holding the ball too long and generally just not being on schedule.



After looking at the game stats and the plays from the video above, I'm not so sure the OL did as well as we would like to think. 306 total yards and barely over 100 rushing in total just isn't really that great. We averaged under 3 yards per carry. 4 sacks given up also isn't great, although some of that had to do with holding the ball too long so not 100% on the OL and there was one just total bust in pass pro from Proctor that looked like he either completely executed wrong, or an adjustment was not called to correct the pass pro after the rusher shifted over to the edge.
If I remember correctly we held a double-digit lead for a big part of that game. I've watched the game since watching it live and honestly, outside of a few moments, that game never felt in question. The main reason I saw was that when we had to move the ball and move their DL, we did. That is winning football. It's not perfect every snap, but throughout the game, if your team can get first downs when it needs to, score when it needs to, and keep a double-digit lead for the bulk of the game, they've done their job. A successful outing isn't always going to be 200+ yards rushing and 400+ yards passing. But it does what is most important and that's win football games. Was our line perfect? No. But when they had to move UGA, they did and they did that the entire game with several times laying pancake blocks all over the right side of the OL.
 
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davefrat

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If I remember correctly we held a double-digit lead for a big part of that game. I've watched the game since watching it live and honestly, outside of a few moments, that game never felt in question. The main reason I saw was that when we had to move the ball and move their DL, we did. That is winning football. It's not perfect every snap, but throughout the game, if your team can get first downs when it needs to, score when it needs to, and keep a double-digit lead for the bulk of the game, they've done their job. A successful outing isn't always going to be 200+ yards rushing and 400+ yards passing. But it does what is most important and that's win football games. Was our line perfect? No. But when they had to move UGA, they did and they did that the entire game with several times laying pancake blocks all over the right side of the OL.
Were we perfect? No.

Was Milroe perfect? Far from it.

Was there room for improvement by the team and the QB? Absolutely.

Did we win an SEC championship against a very very good team that was the two time defending national champion? Yes.

Will I be happy if we beat UGA this coming season in similar fashion? Absolutely.

Will I be kicking rocks and moaning about how we could have beaten them by 20 because our QB should have had 400 yards passing and 5 TDs? Absolutely not.
 

colbysullivan

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Were we perfect? No.

Was Milroe perfect? Far from it.

Was there room for improvement by the team and the QB? Absolutely.

Did we win an SEC championship against a very very good team that was the two time defending national champion? Yes.

Will I be happy if we beat UGA this coming season in similar fashion? Absolutely.

Will I be kicking rocks and moaning about how we could have beaten them by 20 because our QB should have had 400 yards passing and 5 TDs? Absolutely not.
Had me in the first half ngl
 

gtgilbert

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If I remember correctly we held a double-digit lead for a big part of that game. I've watched the game since watching it live and honestly, outside of a few moments, that game never felt in question. The main reason I saw was that when we had to move the ball and move their DL, we did. That is winning football. It's not perfect every snap, but throughout the game, if your team can get first downs when it needs to, score when it needs to, and keep a double-digit lead for the bulk of the game, they've done their job. A successful outing isn't always going to be 200+ yards rushing and 400+ yards passing. But it does what is most important and that's win football games. Was our line perfect? No. But when they had to move UGA, they did and they did that the entire game with several times laying pancake blocks all over the right side of the OL.
Were we perfect? No.

Was Milroe perfect? Far from it.

Was there room for improvement by the team and the QB? Absolutely.

Did we win an SEC championship against a very very good team that was the two time defending national champion? Yes.

Will I be happy if we beat UGA this coming season in similar fashion? Absolutely.

Will I be kicking rocks and moaning about how we could have beaten them by 20 because our QB should have had 400 yards passing and 5 TDs? Absolutely not.
We had 11 drives in that game.

4 of them were three and outs and another was 4 plays for 1 yard, but thankfully the 4th play was FG (this was off the recovered fumble). Net, just under half of the drives went NOWHERE.

Taking out kicks, and the 2 kneel downs at the end of the game, we ran 64 plays. 25 plays were for 1 yard or less and another 9 went for only for 2 or 3. That's 39% percent of plays going for 1 yard or less and 53% of plays being 3 or less. that's also being generous giving us credit for positive plays that were the result of a penalty.

There were 38 plays that were either passes or Milroe runs. 20 of them went for 3 or fewer yards. that's 52%+ of the time that we didn't get a positive play.

Now, do I think we should score on every drive? No, not at all, but we should hope to have very, very few 3 and outs. We need to at least get 1-2 first downs per drive to continue to win the field position battle, especially against the better teams we play.

Are we going to get 4 yards on every play? Of course not, but when over half your plays are 3 or less, that means you're playing behind on down and distance very often, and making the defenses job a good bit easier. With close to 40% of the plays being 1 yard or less, that's really, really behind the sticks on down and distance.

Two things can be true at once. I can be really happy that we beat UGA, and also be realistic about JM not playing that well overall. The team, and JM (give credit where it's due), rallied across the last two drives to seal the deal, but UGA really had all the momentum in the second half until we scored the last TD.

Remember, 1 starting WR was out, another was very limited, and Bowers was very limited due to injuries. Realistically, that's why we won. Their entire passing game was built around Bowers and how him just being out there and full speed dictates what the D does and opened up other stuff. It's just like JAMO and Metchie being out for us.