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Video: Pate's preview and prediction SECCG

Cruloc said:
His model has Georgia by 4.

College Football Nerds model also has Georgia by 4.

View attachment 54561
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This is one instance where the computations can’t tell the whole story.

Both teams are banged up but UGA is missing multiple starters on their OL and our D has improved a lot since the 1st game.

I guess that is also offset some by our Offense not playing as well either.

But still there is also the Kirby factor and how he almost always 2nd or 3rd guesses himself at pivotal moments and it goes our way.
 
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tusks_n_raider said:
This is one instance where the computations can’t tell the whole story.

Both teams are banged up but UGA is missing multiple starters on their OL and our D has improved a lot since the 1st game.

I guess that is also offset some by our Offense not playing as well either.

But still there is also the Kirby factor and how he almost always 2nd or 3rd guesses himself at pivotal moments and it goes our way.
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Their center will be out....ours will either be out or limited.

Yep, both teams are banged up. Missing Cuevas is the biggest to me....he's Ty's safety valve.

Georgia's pass rush has improved.

Our Defense has improved overall.

Georgia's run game has improved.
 
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I would favor UGA, if I'm being neutral. People can cite the stats on rematches and how the game 1 winner wins more often than not in the rematch, but I do not think this favors us against Georgia. We have had their number since 2007. But that can't last forever. Even this inexplicable thing about Kirby brain cramping against us.. that can't last forever. The one time they've beaten us over the last 18 years, was in a rematch.

But I believe in our team. They don't fold. We are beat up, they are beat up, which injuries make the biggest impact?
 
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TideEngineer08 said:
I would favor UGA, if I'm being neutral. People can cite the stats on rematches and how the game 1 winner wins more often than not in the rematch, but I do not think this favors us against Georgia. We have had their number since 2007. But that can't last forever. Even this inexplicable thing about Kirby brain cramping against us.. that can't last forever. The one time they've beaten us over the last 18 years, was in a rematch.

But I believe in our team. They don't fold. We are beat up, they are beat up, which injuries make the biggest impact?
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I think aside from the intangibles that winning a rematch here probably does favor UGA.

They’ve mostly played well since they lost to us except for struggling a bit with Florida and GT.

We’ve rode the struggle bus in about 5 of the last 7 so the teams have been trending in different directions.

I definitely think we can win but I’d probably give them an edge of 55 to 45 going into it.
 
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TideEngineer08 said:
I would favor UGA, if I'm being neutral. People can cite the stats on rematches and how the game 1 winner wins more often than not in the rematch, but I do not think this favors us against Georgia. We have had their number since 2007. But that can't last forever. Even this inexplicable thing about Kirby brain cramping against us.. that can't last forever. The one time they've beaten us over the last 18 years, was in a rematch.

But I believe in our team. They don't fold. We are beat up, they are beat up, which injuries make the biggest impact?
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The thing is we weirdly matchup well vs UGA. I don't think that means we will definitely win but it does mean we can win.

Their defense is phenomenal at stopping the run and preventing explosive pass plays but they don't pressure the QB a ton. Fortunately for us we don't run the ball well or create explosive passing plays and what has killed us the most on offense has been pressure on the QB. Our offense is a short to intermediate passing offense and that's the one thing UGA's defense allows. And if they can't get consistent pressure on Ty? It's an overall good matchup for us all things considered.

They did beat us in a rematch but one in which we lost our 2 best WRs before the 2nd half. Does anyone else remember how pumped the UGA sideline was when Jamo went down? They were literally getting excited once he was out, the commentators pointed it out.
 
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RollTide_HTTR said:
The thing is we weirdly matchup well vs UGA. I don't think that means we will definitely win but it does mean we can win.

Their defense is phenomenal at stopping the run and preventing explosive pass plays but they don't pressure the QB a ton. Fortunately for us we don't run the ball well or create explosive passing plays and what has killed us the most on offense has been pressure on the QB. Our offense is a short to intermediate passing offense and that's the one thing UGA's defense allows. And if they can't get consistent pressure on Ty? It's an overall good matchup for us all things considered.
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If we can somehow win the turnover battle, we will win the game, I think. With us, that is the biggest key. We have to protect the ball, and if we can force a couple ourselves, we will be in great shape.

Either way, I do expect a nailbiter.
 
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Note: Georgia's pass rush has improved in the second half of the season.

We can't stretch the field....we have no vertical passing game. Nothing consistent anyway. Maybe we'll actually connect in this game, but tendencies say otherwise.

We don't run well....

I think we have become predictable.....especially on 1st downs. Watch where the UGA pass rushers line up on 1st down. If its wide, they know we're passing and they are going to get home.

We need to start doing something differently on 1st downs. Screens, draws, slants.....something. Anything long developing is going to get Ty killed.....we've got to break tendencies.
 
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I'm guessing a high consistency score is not good?

If I am reading the model correctly, we will certainly lose if UGA is rushing for 5 yds/carry.
 
Getting a W in Atlanta against UGA is going to be tough. But it is going to be tough for them as well. I think we will see a different Tide Team that we've been seeing the past few games. Bigtime coaches and bigtime players step up in bigtime ballgames and this is a must win for us. No slight against a good dawgs team but I think we have the want-to for a Bama victory on Saturday. Our guys remember the feeling of sitting home last year and we have the power to change our fortunes this season. All else being equal, I like our chances in this one.
 
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CoolBreeze said:
Getting a W in Atlanta against UGA is going to be tough. But it is going to be tough for them as well. I think we will see a different Tide Team that we've been seeing the past few games. Bigtime coaches and bigtime players step up in bigtime ballgames and this is a must win for us. No slight against a good dawgs team but I think we have the want-to for a Bama victory on Saturday. Our guys remember the feeling of sitting home last year and we have the power to change our fortunes this season. All else being equal, I like our chances in this one.
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DeBoer and Co need to instill the narrative we are out of the Playoff with a loss. I mentioned before that I believe this game is 50/50 but some Georgia players may have in the back of their mind that they can lose and still advance.

DawgAlum2054 said:
Georgia is plagued with offensive line injuries

what are the offensive injuries looking like for Alabama?
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Everyone is dinged up. Ty, Jam, some receivers, OL, Cuevas is out.
 
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DawgAlum2054 said:
Georgia is plagued with offensive line injuries

what are the offensive injuries looking like for Alabama?
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Brailsford is playing on one leg (bad hurt ankle but still played last week)
Bernard is playing hurt
Riley is out with broken jaw
Cuevas is out with broken bone in foot
Daniel Hill is dinged up but still playing
Ryan has had hamstring issues for weeks
Danny Lewis is out for the year
Ty has been playing with a nagging back/side injury since the Mizzou game

I personally think our injuries to key positions are a bit more than UGA's except for their Center might be out (Bobo)

I'm not sure which backups are better... ours or UGA's.

It will be a competitive game that either team could win.. it will come down to injuries, turnovers, TOP, and field goals. Hopefully it is Bama who wins!
 
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