Potential final ranking prognostication

[NoNC4Tubs]

Bottom line: If we beat jawja we are in, otherwise we are out...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Bottom line: If we beat jawja we are in, otherwise we are out...

I'm not certain this is true, but I understand the sentiment.

 

[Saban4Ever]

Bama will be ranked 9 tomorrow ahead of Notre Dame I think. They can justify it by saying we are #1 team in the SEC regular season. According to Vegas, we will be ranked higher and are a lock for the playoffs. They are usually right … hopefully the committee does the right thing.

 

[BhamToTexas]

Like I say we should jump ND.

They would maybe or probably jump us over OU via the SEC Championship and since both teams would have 2 losses.

11-2 Bama SEC Chsmps vs 10-2 OU they might give us the nod despite h-t-h

We’d 100% jump UGA. Same record and we’d have swept them 2-0

That gets us to #7

Not a single other team would have a record worse than 11-1 or 12-1

If BYU upset TTU then maybe we could get to the 6th Seed but that’s absolutely as far as we can go.

This committee doesn’t hold the SEC or Alabama on some kind of pedestal like I think many are hoping for.

They just don’t.

Nor do they truly try and judge teams objectively and take all the metrics fully into account.

They are mostly trying to reward every conference to some degree in equal measure including the lowly G5 teams.

They don’t see any one conference as superior.

They think the B1G and ACC is just as difficult as the SEC…

I mean these idiots are laughably bad at what they are doing.

They literally have ND ahead of us and said it’s because they run da bawl better.

That’s their tiebreaker when ND hasn’t beat a soul with a pulse.

If I end up being wrong I’ll own up to it but I’m honestly trying to prevent many from having a rug yanked out from under them and being mad about it on selection Sunday.

Already walking it back. Good to see.

 

[Cruloc]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1995669553645588787

 

[Power Eye]

If we do get to 9 tomorrow, then yes, I think we are a lock for the playoff. If it really happens, then I will be very interested in how the committee spins it given that not much has changed between the two teams’ resume with the exception that the SEC did acknowledge we are the 1 seed in the conference final standings for purposes of determining the championship game. To me, that’s where Sankey and company did us a solid.

I do wonder if it’s Oklahoma that gets moved behind us and not ND.

 

[81usaf92]

Alabama just moved to -1800 odds to make the playoffs. There is a belief that someone has leaked the committee’s rankings like they did last year and we are potentially getting rewarded for being the regular season champs and possibly jumping nd tomorrow.

Idk but Vegas seems more confident that Alabama makes the field than ND and Miami right now.

 

[81usaf92]

Bottom line: If we beat jawja we are in, otherwise we are out...

If BYU wins then it gets dicey but if TTU wins i think we are a near lock either way.

 

[Toddrn]

I'm not certain this is true, but I understand the sentiment.

I don't trust the playoff committee anymore than I trust out O-line.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Already walking it back. Good to see.

I’m clarifying with specific reasons of why I have the viewpoint that I do.

I trying to show what I feel are best and worst case scenarios based on how things look right now.

If anyone else feels differently then they are free to equally explain their reasoning as well.

I can have a civil discussion that way.

I’m not a fan of one line jabs however after trying to meet halfway.

 

[64 Grad]

Notre Dame is in so there is only one spot available to either Miami, Alabama or Texas. Alabama is in if we win the SEC game. Miami is in if we lose. Texas is out period. If we lose Miami will be chosen over Alabama and Texas because they beat Notre Dame. This is my opinion on what the committee will ends up doing. If it comes down to Alabama and Texas they will take Alabama since Texas losing to Florida is as bad as Alabama losing to FSU.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

The ESPN Playoff predictor finally updated but it’s basically useless now without you having to do the rest of the math on your own because they removed the option for you to pick CG winners and losers and how that affects the odds.

Why are they so non transparent?

They have us at 67% which I can only take to mean an average of the two possible outcomes.

Before the update if we beat UGA or if the opponent had been A&M our odds became 99.9% in with a win.

So if they have us with an average of 67% that means we have a 33% chance of making it as the SECCG Runner Up.

I want to say before this update when you could actually pick us to be the runner up it was around those same odds so nothing has really changed.

I swear though the closer it gets to the actual selection they really fill the room with a lot of fog to obfuscate things.

 

[64 Grad]

If Miami is the ACC rep in play off's then Alabama (win or lose) and Texas could both get in. If they chose another team Alabama will probably get the nod over Texas.

 

[GrayTide]

Simple, we beat UGA we are in, lose to UGA and we get some crappy bowl.