Russia Invades Ukraine pt XII

[Tidewater]

Side note on NATO vs. the Russians (or anybody else for that matter):

We have an interesting dilemma. On the one hand, NATO helping Ukraine has highlighted the internal inconsistency of NATO weapons.

The poor Ukrainians are having to learn to operate and maintain German, Polish, French, German and American weapons systems. Yes, I know it’s mostly American, but the point is still valid.

NATO countries are having to create export versions of their weapons systems that don’t give away too much proprietary technology that the developing nations want to keep secret.

So training, maintenance and supply of disparate systems is a real issue.

BUT……

If you standardize NATO weapons systems, you (meaning mainly us…the Americans) necessarily give up proprietary technology. The Abrams MBT and various anti-aircraft systems are the poster children, but there are other systems as well.

How long do you trust the French, Germans, Polish and Brits to not turn that technology on us, or our interests? Conveniently ”mis-place” a tank so it can be reverse-engineered?

Right now, today, it’s not a huge problem. But agendas change and demographics of several of those countries aren’t positive. Will their short-term self-interest outweigh the collective good? What happens if Marine Le Pen (the French analogue to Donald Trump) makes a resurgence?

Not easy questions to answer, with pros, cons, good intentions and unintended consequences all over the place.

We live in interesting times.

NATO standard applies mostly to rounds (9mm, 5.56mm, etc.).
NATO kit is mostly a national issue. In other words, nobody aspires that a German Armored Personnel Carrier will have any parts in common with an American APC. Or a British fighter jet and a French fighter jet.
That is now Ukraine's problem, but a NATO vehicle left on the battlefield because a simple repair part could not get to it in time, so it falls into Russian hands will make reverse-engineering possible.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

In the summer of 1941, the Germans had seized a bridgehead over the upper reaches of the Dniepr at a place called Yelnya Bend. Stalin badly want that bridgehead reduced, so he threw tons of Red Army units at the bridgehead. The Germans badly wanted to keep the bridgehead so they fed lots on men and ammo into the defense. It just became a contest of wills between Stalin and Hitler. Eventually, the Germans blinked and evacuated the bridgehead. It seems they were grinding down good units to nothing trying to hold an almost worthless bridgehead. But the Red Army ground down a bunch of units trying to reduce the bridgehead as well, units they would need when the Germans launched phase II of their summer offensive.
Bakhmut feels a little like that.

I keep reading that many "experts" think that's exactly what the Ukrainians are doing...

Here's a WSJ article quoting Ukrainian commanders as saying exactly that.

WSJ requires a subscription, so if you don't have one, it'll be paywalled.

Ukraine Says Bakhmut Tactics Will Give It Advantages Elsewhere - WSJ

Gist of the article is that the Ukrainian commanders' strategy is to wear down the Russians' best units in Bakhmut. They know it has questionable strategic value. But they want to exploit the Russians' hunger for any sort of victory, and see it as a good killing ground.

The goal is to deplete not just Russian troops, but their best troops, so an offensive south toward the Sea of Azor will be easier.

I'm not sure the Ukrainians (1) are killing the Russians' best troops, or (2) aren't absorbing proportionately greater losses than they're inflicting. But that's the stated strategy.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I think this is the most optimistic forecast I've seen, but his idea of two fronts is intriguing...

Combellick on Medium

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I think this is the most optimistic forecast I've seen, but his idea of two fronts is intriguing...

Combellick on Medium

Wow….he really is optimistic. A lot of that is based on the assumption that Russia continues its thus-far abysmal performance. He further assumes that the Russians will not mount a material response to a two-front offensive.

IOW, he’s assuming (1) that the Russians haven’t learned anything in the last 9 months, or (2) even if they have learned anything, they no longer have the caliber of equipment or personnel needed to execute an effective response.

Combellick is much more informed than I am, and I hope he’s right. But it strikes me as a bit over-optimistic. I’d gladly send him something a lot better than a plate of cookies if he’s accurately predicted the outcome.

 

[crimsonaudio]

he’s assuming (1) that the Russians haven’t learned anything in the last 9 months, or (2) even if they have learned anything, they no longer have the caliber of equipment or personnel needed to execute an effective response.

The Russians have shown that they've basically learned little since the 1970s, so I'm not sure nine extra months is going to make much of a difference.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The Russians have shown that they've basically learned little since the 1970s, so I'm not sure nine extra months is going to make much of a difference.

They're handicapped by a top-down command system, with a KGB spy at the top...

 

[crimsonaudio]

They're handicapped by a top-down command system, with a KGB spy at the top...

And they lack the cash to keep up with US tech.

 

[Bamaro]

And they lack the cash to keep up with US tech.

Except when they or the Chineese or others steal the tech know-how.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Except when they or the Chineese or others steal the tech know-how.

Still hit and miss.

 

[Padreruf]

Bankers convicted of helping Putin's friend

A cellist who is godfather to the Russian leader's daughter deposited huge sums in Swiss accounts.

www.bbc.com

Putin's cellist investing for him!

 

[Padreruf]

Nuclear war a possibility says a Russian Nobel prize winner:

Dmitry Muratov: Nuclear warning from Russia's Nobel-winning journalist

Dmitry Muratov says Russian propaganda is preparing people to think nuclear war isn't a bad thing.

www.bbc.com

 

[TexasBama]

Russia arrests Wall Street Journal reporter on spying charge

Russia’s security service has arrested an American reporter for The Wall Street Journal on espionage charges. It's the first time a U.S. correspondent has been detained on spying accusations since the Cold War. The newspaper denied the allegations and demanded his release. Thirty-one-year-old...

apnews.com

 

[4Q Basket Case]

A WSJ editorial by Karl Rove explaining to the isolationists on the left and right why helping Ukraine is in our moral, strategic and economic interest.

As before, it requires a subscription. If you don’t have one, it’ll be paywalled.

Opinion | Put America First by Aiding Ukraine

Besides being moral, it’s in our strategic and economic interest to help stop Putin.

www.wsj.com

He first makes the moral argument that it’s just the right thing to do. Then points out that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he’s already said he’s on the way to NATO countries which were treaty-bound to defend. Plus, if we do nothing, all the places he conquers will buy all their goods from Russia and China — not us — thereby costing trade and jobs in the US.

It is a more informed version of what I’ve said in the past — Helping Ukraine win is the bargain of the millenium. Why crazies at both ends of the political spectrum refuse to see that is beyond me.

 

[crimsonaudio]

It is a more informed version of what I’ve said in the past — Helping Ukraine win is the bargain of the millenium. Why crazies at both ends of the political spectrum refuse to see that is beyond me.

I hate sending billions for this, but it's an investment that will save dollars (and likely US troops' lives) in the long run. There's little about Putin that makes me believe if we Neville Chamberlain'd this he would stop. Learning from history isn't always fun or easy.

 

[Tidewater]

Vitaly Portnikov, Russian dissident, wrote a piece that included a Kremlin reference to "the treachery of Gorbachev" in the ending of the USSR.
This sounds vaguely like the "stab in the back" myth promulgated by the Nazis after the Great War.

Portnikov continues, “even the peoples of the Russian Federation will get a chance, if not to end their destructive cohabitation with the Russian people, then to at least achieve the transformation of Russia into a real union of equal peoples, where Russians will be just one ethnic group among others and Russian just one language among all the others as well. ... Ukrainians today are fighting for all the oppressed, for all those whom the archaic empire has deceived, humiliated and destroyed for centuries.”

 

[TexasBama]

Turkey approves Finland Nato membership bid

Turkish MPs vote to admit Finland to the West's defensive alliance, after blocking it for months.

www.bbc.com

 

[TexasBama]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641795153965793281

 

[crimsonaudio]

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: The weapon cloud of the Ukrainian Tochka-U strike is consistent with a thermobaric warhead. If it was a thermobaric warhead, every Wagner PMC 'contractor' in the AZOM plant was just killed. 1/4 The fa...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I had to look up what a thermobaric weapon is. For those wondering, it works like a MASSIVELY expanded fuel injection into the ignition chamber of an internal combustion engine.

Essentially, it’s a two-stage munition, though I’m guessing that the stages are fractions of a second apart.

The first stage delivers an explosive that vaporizes, but doesn’t explode….yet. Then the second stage comes in and ignites the vaporized initial stage. Kind of like what happens in a ICE vs. simply setting a match to a like amount of fuel, it results in an exponentially more powerful explosion.

It’s clear the Russians don’t have these….or the ones they do have don’t work. If they had operational versions, they’d have already used them.

Correction: The Russians do have thermobaric weapons. I’m curious as to why they haven’t used them in Ukraine, or, if they have used them, why not in greater volume.

Putin’s reaction will be interesting.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I had to look up what a thermobaric weapon is. For those wondering, it works like a MASSIVELY expanded fuel injection into the ignition chamber of an internal combustion engine.

Essentially, it’s a two-stage munition, though I’m guessing that the stages are fractions of a second apart.

The first stage delivers an explosive that vaporizes, but doesn’t explode….yet. Then the second stage comes in and ignites the vaporized initial stage. Kind of like what happens in a ICE vs. simply setting a match to a like amount of fuel, it results in an exponentially more powerful explosion.

It’s clear the Russians don’t have these….or the ones they do have don’t work. If they had operational versions, they’d have already used them.

Putin’s reaction will be interesting.

Sure they have them. They used them extensively in the Grozny siege over 20 years ago. There were rumors of their using them in Ukraine earlier in the war. I just hope that Ukraine using them doesn't give Putin an excuse for even more barbarity. Does the term "MOAB" tickle your memory?