Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

[81usaf92]

That is an interesting question. The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor 7 DEC 1941. Germany declared war on the US on 11 DEC 1941. What if he had not.
I think the US would have continued Lend-Lease to the Brits and Soviets (probably by sailing through the South Atlantic to the Indian Ocean to Suez (for the Brits) and Iran (for the Soviets). Hitler might have tried to interdict that using U-boats and that would have, and then the US would be involved in Europe anyway.
Or, alternatively, the US could have sailed right through the North Atlantic and dared the Germans to attack them, which they probably would have done.

I think the bigger issue is when he did and not that he did it. He was already getting reports that Operation Typhoon was being stalled and that they were no closer to winning at Leningrad so it makes zero sense to get the United States directly involved when you are starting to see a far more competent and fiercer Russian resistance than you saw in October starting to emerge outside of Moscow and Leningrad. I think that Hitler was always going to be at war with the Soviets whether he started it or Stalin started so 1941 was probably the best time he could have started it. But there was really no real assurance that the Americans would be directly involved by 1943.

I think with Nazism leading the war that Germany was always doomed to lose, bringing in the United States just fast tracked the date by a couple of years.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Im sure the Turks would be more than willing to escalate a prxy war with Russia into a hot war.

See thats the thing at some point you have to stop letting Russia nibble away at territory. The Turks and Poles probably understand this more than anybody. I for dont think the Russians have the nads to launch a nule knowing it will be the end of their precious Mother Russia.

Someone needs to be their Doc Holliday...

The point is if Russia invades Poland, they'll have all of NATO to deal with. They will lose that unless they resort to nuclear, which, as @Tidewater has shared, the use of which is not their 'last line of defense' but actually part of their war planning.

Again I say - no one wants to see the bad guy win. But a lot of the ideas floated here are either based on irrational fears (Russian invading Poland) or are almost guaranteed to get us into WWIII.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Honestly, I think the EU countries should commit fighting troops to the effort in Ukraine provided that Ukraine conscripts fighting age Ukrainians to the war effort. The US supplies all the war kit and intelligence for the effort.

Aaaaand that's how you start WWIII.

But really, if Europe wants to help Ukraine, maybe stop pumping BILLIONS of dollars into the Russian economy for energy?

If they even can. I guess this is where we insert the clip of the German delegates laughing at Trump when he warned them years ago that their dependence on Russian energy was a bad idea...

I'm sure 1 polish soldier can kill 10 Russians per day.

I suspect this is a vast exaggeration.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I think the bigger issue is when he did and not that he did it. He was already getting reports that Operation Typhoon was being stalled and that they were no closer to winning at Leningrad so it makes zero sense to get the United States directly involved when you are starting to see a far more competent and fiercer Russian resistance than you saw in October starting to emerge outside of Moscow and Leningrad. I think that Hitler was always going to be at war with the Soviets whether he started it or Stalin started so 1941 was probably the best time he could have started it. But there was really no real assurance that the Americans would be directly involved by 1943.

I think with Nazism leading the war that Germany was always doomed to lose, bringing in the United States just fast tracked the date by a couple of years.

I see your point, but would predict a different final outcome.

The first paragraph is absolutely right....assuming Adolf Hitler was a competent and logical strategist. He wasn't. He honestly believed in Aryan / German / Teutonic superiority and thought he could win against any and all other forces, even all of them at the same time. Professional generals knew different, but they reported to Hitler who didn't listen to them.

I agree with Nazism being a major flaw, but think that if the US hadn't been involved, Germany would have won before Nazism's flaws caught up with their execution.

Germany had already overrun essentially all of mainland Europe except Spain and Portugal, neither of which posed a threat. Without having to deal with the American Army Air Corps, their production capability would have continued unhindered (they did a really good job on that anyway, but that's another topic for another thread).

If Germany isn't fighting a two-front war, they might defeat Russia. At a minimum, I think they reach a settlement with lines east of Poland. Then they have Franco protecting their west, Mussolini protecting their south (to the extent that the Italian Army could be considered "protection," and have made peace one way or another with Russia on the east.

Now, they turn their sights on Britain. Without US planes in the air and troops on the ground, I don't see where any amount of Lend-Lease would have saved the Brits.

 

[Tidewater]

I see your point, but would predict a different final outcome.

The first paragraph is absolutely right....assuming Adolf Hitler was a competent and logical strategist. He wasn't. He honestly believed in Aryan / German / Teutonic superiority and thought he could win against any and all other forces, even all of them at the same time. Professional generals knew different, but they reported to Hitler who didn't listen to them.

I agree with Nazism being a major flaw, but think that if the US hadn't been involved, Germany would have won before Nazism's flaws caught up with their execution.

Germany had already overrun essentially all of mainland Europe except Spain and Portugal, neither of which posed a threat. Without having to deal with the American Army Air Corps, their production capability would have continued unhindered (they did a really good job on that anyway, but that's another topic for another thread).

If Germany isn't fighting a two-front war, they might defeat Russia. At a minimum, I think they reach a settlement with lines east of Poland. Then they have Franco protecting their west, Mussolini protecting their south (to the extent that the Italian Army could be considered "protection," and have made peace one way or another with Russia on the east.

Now, they turn their sights on Britain. Without US planes in the air and troops on the ground, I don't see where any amount of Lend-Lease would have saved the Brits.

I see your reasoning, I just doubt Germany could have avoided doing something that would have brought the US into the European war. I could see FDR loading up Liberty ships with ammo and sailing right through the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean to Murmansk while flying a huge American flag from the fantail. How long would Hitler tolerate that?

But yes, I agree that without US involvement in Europe, the Brits would never have been able to get back onto the Continent (except maybe Italy).

I do believe the Soviets were going to defeat the Germans even without the US in the War in Europe.

 

[Bamaro]

The point is if Russia invades Poland, they'll have all of NATO to deal with. They will lose that unless they resort to nuclear, which, as @Tidewater has shared, the use of which is not their 'last line of defense' but actually part of their war planning.

Again I say - no one wants to see the bad guy win. But a lot of the ideas floated here are either based on irrational fears (Russian invading Poland) or are almost guaranteed to get us into WWIII.

So, we should cut and run because Putin is scary.

 

[Tidewater]

So, we should cut and run because Putin is scary.

There is an alternative.
Stop the fighting and hold on until Putin dies then see how things look.
The Ukrainians might get their land back for free.

 

[Its On A Slab]

Interesting take on the Tuirks. I have never quite understood Erdogan's dealings. Weren't the Ukrainians using Turkish drones at the start of the war. And then I saw Erdogan cozying up to Putin.

I do believe that Erdogan has his sights on restoring elements of the Ottoman Empire. Just as Putin wants the Soviet states back in the Russian fold.

 

[JDCrimson]

And how thats how you lose Ukraine then Europe over the span of 30 years. Just let Russia keep nibbling away because the rest of humanity is too weak minded to defend their freedom. Your freedom might survive a nuke attack whereas you are guaranteed to lose it under death by a thousand cuts.

There is no freedom on the other side of invasion by Russia.

Aaaaand that's how you start WWIII.

But really, if Europe wants to help Ukraine, maybe stop pumping BILLIONS of dollars into the Russian economy for energy?

If they even can. I guess this is where we insert the clip of the German delegates laughing at Trump when he warned them years ago that their dependence on Russian energy was a bad idea...


I suspect this is a vast exaggeration.

 

[Tidewater]

And how thats how you lose Ukraine then Europe over the span of 30 years. Just let Russia keep nibbling away because the rest of humanity is too weak minded to defend their freedom. Your freedom might survive a nuke attack whereas you are guaranteed to lose it under death by a thousand cuts.

There is no freedom on the other side of invasion by Russia.

Not sure how I can explain things in a way you will accept.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Romania are members of NATO.
Russia has overtly invaded precisely zero NATO countries because the reaction would be so very different. Europe and the US have poured billion of dollars into a non-NATO Ukraine. Invade a NATO country and the US have promised to treat it like an attack on the US.
Russia cannot overrun Ukraine as it is. They would find Poland a much tougher nut to crack because Poland does not have the corruption and subversion problem Ukraine does and they have just announced the increase in the size of their army to 500,000.

I am not suggesting that Ukraine is the last stand of the West against Russia. It is the first stand and right now, Ukraine, NATO, and even Russia need a ceasefire.

 

[81usaf92]

@JDCrimson in response to #501…

The only way Moscow is destroyed or threatened by nuclear destruction is if the United States is involved. Just because the French and British have nuclear weapons doesn’t mean their nuclear capabilities are any serious threat to Moscow. Without the US involved I don’t think either Britain or France would dare fire on Moscow unless they are under threat of being overrun themselves.

 

[crimsonaudio]

And how thats how you lose Ukraine then Europe over the span of 30 years.

If only there was a treaty with basically the rest of Europe to prevent this.

I'll copy and paste the list of countries @Tidewater has graciously posted of NATO countries Russia has invaded:
.
.
.

That's all of them.

Just let Russia keep nibbling away because the rest of humanity is too weak minded to defend their freedom. Your freedom might survive a nuke attack whereas you are guaranteed to lose it under death by a thousand cuts.

Okay, I'll just ask you - are you going to pick up a rifle and head over there or are you just asking for others to sacrifice their kids so you can be happy the Ukrainians are free?

 

[crimsonaudio]

So, we should cut and run because Putin is scary.

I suppose this is the conclusion you would come to if your view of the world is black and white.

 

[JDCrimson]

Hence the reason Russia will continually test the resolve of the NATO alliance with its continued subversive tactics. If Russia can get the US to walkaway from NATO, then i believe its Katy bar the door for Europe.

@JDCrimson in response to #501…

The only way Moscow is destroyed or threatened by nuclear destruction is if the United States is involved. Just because the French and British have nuclear weapons doesn’t mean their nuclear capabilities are any serious threat to Moscow. Without the US involved I don’t think either Britain or France would dare fire on Moscow unless they are under threat of being overrun themselves.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/world/ukraine-us-talks-saudi-arabia-intl?cid=ios_app

US will ‘immediately lift’ pause on intel sharing and military aid to Ukraine after meeting in Jeddah.

….
Kyiv also “expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the statement said.

 

[Its On A Slab]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/world/ukraine-us-talks-saudi-arabia-intl?cid=ios_app

US will ‘immediately lift’ pause on intel sharing and military aid to Ukraine after meeting in Jeddah.

….
Kyiv also “expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the statement said.

I am sure Zelenskyy was able to calm his fee-fees.

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[Tidewater]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/world/ukraine-us-talks-saudi-arabia-intl?cid=ios_app

US will ‘immediately lift’ pause on intel sharing and military aid to Ukraine after meeting in Jeddah.

….
Kyiv also “expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the statement said.

Four months ago, nobody was talking about a ceasefire.
Now, it is a real possibility.
Now, let's see the details of any long-term agreement.

 

[Tidewater]

Hence the reason Russia will continually test the resolve of the NATO alliance with its continued subversive tactics. If Russia can get the US to walkaway from NATO, then i believe its Katy bar the door for Europe.

I have spent the better part of ten years studying Russian hybrid warfare.
Sure, the Russians will try to pursue their interests in and against NATO countries, but without having to deal with overt military presence, it is an order of magnitude easier than what Ukraine (and Georgia, and Moldova, and Belarus) faced.
NATO has decided that the primary agency for countering Russian hybrid threats is the member nation state. NATO can assist if asked (and with NAC approval), but primarily, the agent to counter Russian hybrid threats in Germany is the German government.
The hard part is getting Ministry of Interior to talk to intel agencies, and diplomats, and public media outlets, and central bankers, etc.

 

[Bazza]

View attachment 49749

Ukraine accepts deal, says Rubio: 'We'll take this to the Russians'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine has accepted the U.S. 30-day ceasefire proposal and now Washington will take it to Russia which it will 'hopefully' accept before more negotiations can begin.

www.foxnews.com

In response to Kyiv's willingness to accept Washington's hard-fought preliminary proposal, President Donald Trump agreed to lift the pause on U.S. security assistance to Ukraine "effective immediately" and renewed U.S. intelligence sharing.

Rubio said if and once Moscow agrees to this preliminary agreement, the real negotiations can commence.

"This is very serious. Today people will die in this war. They died yesterday, and sadly, unless there's a ceasefire tonight, they'll die tomorrow," Rubio said. "The president wants that to stop."