Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

[Tidewater]

I am not well versed in this but I do believe that there are fewer and fewer Russians and North Koreas desiring to die in Ukraine and this has manifested itself in overall ineffectiveness and massive loss of Russian equipment in the battlefield.

The whole Russian military is predicated on the principle that Mother Russia does not care whether you love her, want to protect her, and want to achieve gloriously in her defense. The Russian army is predicated on throwing numbers at the problem. Been that way for centuries. A disproportionate amount of "Russian" soldiers are Tatars, Bashkirs, Buryats, Kumyks, etc.
It could well be that Great Russians are seething under Putin's oppressions and ready for a change in government, but we won't know that for sure until the bubble bursts and everyone jumps ship.

I do interpret, perhaps wrongly, the the number of "suicides" by oligarcs in Russia is and indication of Putin's war not being seen as conducive to their business interest.

That could be true. It could also be true that Oligarch A covets Oligarch B's business empire and plants some evidence and then rats him out to The Boss.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I am having a hard time understanding how you can believe both statements. They are contradictory. Putin does not want “some territory”. He wants all of Ukraine (at least East & Central).

You do understand that with your Quote N1, but you keep contradicting yourself with the Quote N2.
What is happening right now? Ukraine is slowly pulling back, inflicting heavy losses on the Russian Army. The situation has been getting worse over the last several months, partially due to limiting US support.

There is no ceasefire offer from Putin to “give Russia some territory”. He offers to give him the entire Eastern Ukraine:

"Zelenskyy said Putin wants the remaining 9,000 square kilometers (3,500 square miles) of Donetsk under Kyiv’s control, where the war’s toughest battles are grinding on, as part of a ceasefire plan, in a press briefing on Tuesday in Kyiv.”
( https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/...kraines-donetsk-region-as-part-of-a-ceasefire )

Here are Russia gains in 2025( https://www.understandingwar.org/ )

• January 2025: Approximately 496 square kilometers were gained.
• February 2025: An estimated 313 square kilometers were added.
• March 2025: Russian forces seized roughly 601 square kilometers.
• April 2025: Around 217 square kilometers were captured.
• May 2025: 498.53 square kilometers were gained.
• June 2025: 466.71 square kilometers were added.

There could be a bit more in July & August, but the total is still under ~4000 sq. km.
Why would you give up an additional 9000 sq km of your best defensive positions that you’ve invested millions of dollars to build for a promise of “ceasefire” that Putin, again, as you wrote, “wants to continue to take over Ukraine” won’t hold for long.

I am genuinely puzzled why you don’t see the doublethink in your quotes.

Fair questions.

The distinction is between what’s best for the US vs. what’s best for Ukraine.

Putin doesn’t care what anybody thinks, not even his own people. He doesn’t care how much he hurts anybody, not even his own people.

In that sense, the best outcome for the USA is for Putin to grind Ukraine into dust over several more years — because that process will also grind Russia into dust. That will either eliminate Russia’s ability to mount another invasion, or greatly reduce it.

But that’s not the best available outcome for Ukraine — unless you believe total annihilation is better than survival. Or you believe that any NATO nation will put active combatants into the war — in which case, Ukraine might actually have a chance of recovering its occupied territory.

I don’t see that as a viable alternative. So the choice for Ukraine is almost certain defeat, or a compromise and a peacekeeping force.

 

[some_al_fan]

Fair questions.

The distinction is between what’s best for the US vs. what’s best for Ukraine.

Putin doesn’t care what anybody thinks, not even his own people. He doesn’t care how much he hurts anybody, not even his own people.

In that sense, the best outcome for the USA is for Putin to grind Ukraine into dust over several more years — because that process will also grind Russia into dust. That will either eliminate Russia’s ability to mount another invasion, or greatly reduce it.

But that’s not the best available outcome for Ukraine — unless you believe total annihilation is better than survival. Or you believe that any NATO nation will put active combatants into the war — in which case, Ukraine might actually have a chance of recovering its occupied territory.

I don’t see that as a viable alternative. So the choice for Ukraine is almost certain defeat, or a compromise and a peacekeeping force.

Can you please share a link that peacekeeping force is on the table?
AFAIK, Putin has clearly stated that he wouldn't allow it.
You keep continue to miss the point that there are only 2 options on the table for Ukraine right now:
1. Fight and potentially die, but with a chance to inflict enough damage on Russia to make it stop

2. Obey and surrender (and then potentially being tortured by Russians)

There is no third option on the table.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Can you please share a link that peacekeeping force is on the table?
AFAIK, Putin has clearly stated that he wouldn't allow it.
You keep continue to miss the point that there are only 2 options on the table for Ukraine right now:
1. Fight and potentially die, but with a chance to inflict enough damage on Russia to make it stop

2. Obey and surrender (and then potentially being tortured by Russians)

There is no third option on the table.

The fact that Putin says that’s off the table doesn’t mean it really is. I can’t imagine Ukraine or the NATO countries accepting Putin’s word on a cease-fire with no tangible enforcement.

If Putin really won’t budge from the status quo, and assuming the west won’t commit active combat troops, the choice does boil down to your two options: (1) Ukraine surrenders to Russian occupation, with all that entails, or (2) Ukraine as a nation adopts the kamikaze mentality. It assumes itself already dead and its remaining goal consists of taking as many of the bad guys with it as possible.

You believe there are only two options, and have already chosen #2 — for the Ukrainians. Who, having more skin in the game, might or might not agree with you. I’m not yet of a mind that the options are binary.

 

[JDCrimson]

I suspect that if Putin takes all of Ukraine there will be a genocide of Ukranians in the offing. He will practically dare NATO to come in to stop their eradication. And Hungary will be the holdout vote in NATO preventing it from moving in unison to stop Putin.

 

[some_al_fan]

The fact that Putin says that’s off the table doesn’t mean it really is. I can’t imagine Ukraine or the NATO countries accepting Putin’s word on a cease-fire with no tangible enforcement.

And they are not accepting it. The concern is that Trump can accept it without them and then use US military help and weapons sale to pressure them.

We have a history of Trump siding with Putin.

If Putin really won’t budge from the status quo, and assuming the west won’t commit active combat troops, the choice does boil down to your two options: (1) Ukraine surrenders to Russian occupation, with all that entails, or (2) Ukraine as a nation adopts the kamikaze mentality. It assumes itself already dead and its remaining goal consists of taking as many of the bad guys with it as possible.

You believe there are only two options, and have already chosen #2 — for the Ukrainians. Who, having more skin in the game, might or might not agree with you. I’m not yet of a mind that the options are binary.

What is the third option?

 

[some_al_fan]

On a positive note, Ukrainians have shot down Su 30 today.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

And they are not accepting it. The concern is that Trump can accept it without them and then use US military help and weapons sale to pressure them.

We have a history of Trump siding with Putin.



What is the third option?

One that you've discounted, but that I think is still viable: A negotiated settlement whereby Ukraine gives up territory, especially in the east, and there are peacekeeping forces going forward to maintain the new borders.

 

[some_al_fan]

One that you've discounted, but that I think is still viable: A negotiated settlement whereby Ukraine gives up territory, especially in the east, and there are peacekeeping forces going forward to maintain the new borders.

I’ve discounted it because Putin has made it clear that he won’t accept it:

Russia responds to plan for peacekeepers in Ukraine

A Russian deputy foreign minister accused French President Emmanuel Macron of offering up his soldiers to distract from domestic issues.

www.newsweek.com

 

[CrimsonJazz]

NEW - HILLARY CLINTON: "If Donald Trump negotiates an end to Putin's war on Ukraine without Ukraine having to cede territory, I'll nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize myself."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1956361508075491743

 

[Bamaro]

We have two huge pathological liars meeting today and the winner will be the one that pulls off the biggest whopper.

 

[Tidewater]

NEW - HILLARY CLINTON: "If Donald Trump negotiates an end to Putin's war on Ukraine without Ukraine having to cede territory, I'll nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize myself."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1956361508075491743

If Hillary could negotiate a deal in which Russia leaves Ukraine entirely and Ukraine goes back to her 2013 borders, I'd nominate her for the Nobel Peace Prize.
And she would deserve it.

 

[Bazza]

We have two huge pathological liars meeting today and the winner will be the one that pulls off the biggest whopper.

I can see the headline now....

"Trump shoots Putin along with his Foreign Minister. War comes to a sudden end."

 

[some_al_fan]

Putin ' s foreign Minister came to the meeting in the USSR shirt:

Putin’s foreign minister trolls Ukraine by wearing USSR sweatshirt to high-stakes summit between Trump, Putin

Sergei Lavrov was seen wearing a gray sweatshirt emblazoned with the Russian letters for USSR, and a black puffer vest as he entered the site of the talks in Anchorage.

nypost.com

 

[Bazza]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1956191505934069769

 

[some_al_fan]

Latest Pew poll: Americans want to send more support to Ukraine. Big increase since Feb:



Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...n-making-us-policy-toward-russia-ukraine-war/

 

[jthomas666]

It was the exact opposite. Does he have any military advisors at all?

He does, but you must remember that competency in a given field is not a requirement.

 

[Bamaro]

Does anybody care what the people who live in the 'disputed' areas prefer?

 

[92tide]

Does anybody care what the people who live in the 'disputed' areas prefer?

no

 

[some_al_fan]

Does anybody care what the people who live in the 'disputed' areas prefer?

Are you referring to a specific place?
The majority has been evacuated.

For example, here is how Pokrovsk looks like right now:


It is a random online picture, but frontline cities are currently in ruins, so it depends on how far the city is from the current frontline.