Saban speaks on Analytics

He’s so right. Not getting it kills momentum like a turnover. The energy a team gets from a 4th down stop is huge In a close game. I’m all for going for it in certain narrow situations, but so many games I’m yelling no at the tv as teams go for it in dumb situations. a punt isn’t always a bad thing.
 
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He’s so right. Not getting it kills momentum like a turnover. The energy a team gets from a 4th down stop is huge In a close game. I’m all for going for it in certain narrow situations, but so many games I’m yelling no at the tv as teams go for it in dumb situations. a pint isn’t always a bad thing.
I need a pint every time my team goes for it on 4th and doesn't make it.
 
On the Pat McAfee Show Saban gave his opinion on analytics, specifically going for it on 4th down. I must say I was very glad to see we have a coach who hasn't bought into all the numbers suggesting to go for it. I hope coaches like Dan Lanning and Lane Kiffin were watching.

I think Kiffin is a gambler at heart. It's apparantly inscribed in his DNA.
 
With most Good HC’s it comes down more to how well you trust your Offense to convert and how much you trust your Defense if you do not convert.

It felt like Shula NEVER went for it on 4th down and most of the time he might have been right but there were also a lot of times he should have gone for it but didn’t.

CNS has gone for it on 4th down a LOT in comparison and he’s mostly right with it.

There’s only been a few times where he didn’t roll the dice when maybe he could have.

Somewhat related to this it seems like CNS has gone for 2 after TD’s in regulation more than any previous Bama coach that I remember and he’s also not gone for it a couple times when he should have.

TLDR: I’m basically saying CNS is pretty aggressive on this stuff but it always feels like he’s going with intuition and not statistics.
 
I love coach. But he's wrong on this one. Most models do in fact tell you what happens if you don't make it. And I'm sure some look at specific teams too. Now in the NFL there is a lot more parody so they probably are generally more accurate for NFL decisions.

I don't think they're perfect. But they're not nearly as simplistic as he seems to imply here.
 
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Never coached a game in my life. But I never like the idea of going for it outside the 50. If you've got a QB that can take snaps under center and it's like a foot I'd maybe think about it inside of 60.

At least make 'em have to drive 40 if you don't get it. Anything inside of that they are already in FG range and it's like giving away points.
 
Never coached a game in my life. But I never like the idea of going for it outside the 50. If you've got a QB that can take snaps under center and it's like a foot I'd maybe think about it inside of 60.

At least make 'em have to drive 40 if you don't get it. Anything inside of that they are already in FG range and it's like giving away points.

I would have gone for it almost every time around the 50 or better with the 2020 Offense.

Though they didn't face many 4th downs..lol

They were like 5 for 9 on 4th down conversions.

They were also 86 for 146 on 3rd down at 58.90 % which led the NCAA.

So that's about 50 times we either punted or scored on 3rd down via TD or FG.

But it seemed like if we ever had a 4th and manageable with that bunch we went for it.
 
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Part of the issue is that in the college game, the margin for error is really, really low. For instance in the NFL, if you win 75% of your games, you're doing great. In college? You could actually lose your job depending on where you are.

So analytics does a fantastic job of showing you things to do provided you accept the downside. The problem is for instance you are winning a game, you take a risk because analytics says to, that goes wrong and you lose. Does it matter it was a high chance of success if it costs you the game?

In the NFL that's acceptable because it sorts itself out over time and you will succeed more than you fail, so on so forth. But to reiterate, you're not really allowed to fail in the college game. To put it in another context, heavy reliance on the pass also works better in the NFL than in college. I can rattle off a lot of successful college coaches, who won a lot of games airing things out but never won a title in part because high risk high reward works enough to be very successful, but it's another thing to work enough to win a title.
 
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The component missing in "analytics" is the human component that exists in the moment and the individuality of "your" team. Sure, the analytics may give a highly favorable percentage in "going for it" in a given situation. But what the analytics doesn't factor in, is how bad a team looked getting to that point on the field, which also was assisted by defensive penalties, and oh btw, we've struggled with missing blocks on the OL and just for good measure we have a center who way too frequently likes to hike the ball over the qb's head. But hey, let's trust the analytics more than what our eyes have observed on the field THAT DAY.
 
Analytics looks at the odds of winning if you punt it, kick a field goal, go for it on fourth and make it, and go for it on fourth and make it. And then you make a decision based on that. The good models are also more detailed than that.

I think a lot of people assume there is no risk to kicking a field goal or punting but that's not true. I also think people misunderstand what analytics is doing
 
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Analytics has its place and its benefits, but they aren't the magazine Biff stole out of Marty's Delorean that many have come to treat them.
I don't think that's how people treat them at all. I think people see them as a slight edge it can give you in a game that is often referred to "a game of inches." Analytics is just one way to give your team a small edge. That doesn't mean its predicting the future or guaranteeing a win.
 
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I don't think that's how people treat them at all. I think people see them as a slight edge it can give you in a game that is often referred to "a game of inches." Analytics is just one way to give your team a small edge. That doesn't mean its predicting the future or guaranteeing a win.

People, coaches, and organizations treat analytics differently, so I don't think we can make a general assessment of how the majority treat them. There are some people who let analytics basically "coach the team", especially in baseball. Then others, as you say, use them as a tool to get an edge. I've encountered both.
 
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Analytics gives you data on probable outcomes. But if you are an opponent playing Alabama who is perennially a top 5 team would you want test the analytics against them? Analytics unless deeply detailed doesn't tell you the probabilities against quality opponents. High 4th conversions against sorry teams doesn't translate to high conversions against good teams.
 
Analytics gives you data on probable outcomes. But if you are an opponent playing Alabama who is perennially a top 5 team would you want test the analytics against them? Analytics unless deeply detailed doesn't tell you the probabilities against quality opponents. High 4th conversions against sorry teams doesn't translate to high conversions against good teams.

They also don't factor in if your left tackle and right guard are having a bad day blocking either. LOL!
 
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