Saban speaks on Analytics

[crimsonaudio]

We need a course on brevity

Can you get carpal tunnel syndrome from scrolling? Asking for a friend.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Can you get carpal tunnel syndrome from scrolling? Asking for a friend.

Yes. I did sprain an eyeball as well. Not sure if it’s a scanning injury or from one massive eye roll.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I wonder what the analytics are of going for it on fourth and long with a fake punt in your own end of the field in a national championship game.

I'm sure coach would never try that one.....

 

[CajunCrimson]

I think going on 4th when you need to change the momentum is worth discussing.

I also think going for it late in the second quarter knowing you get the kick in the second half is also worth considering.

But, with WR, you kick if you are inside the 35.

 

[KrAzY3]

Just consider analytics another data point for the brain to process. Why wouldn't you want more information to help make the best decision?

My point about turnovers costing you 3.5 is that even Saban clearly uses some analytics in his thought process because he mentioned it in that interview.

I'm not against using analytics, just elaborated on some of the potential issues. If for instance you are really on the fence and don't know what to do, checking some analytics might better inform your choice. If you start to defer to analytics it's easy to be lead astray by information that isn't perfectly modeled for your circumstance.

I didn't get the impression Saban was against analytics either, after all it is just "computational analysis of data or statistics", but he was I think speaking to the pitfalls of the let me pull out this chart and make my choice based on it type of application that we see sometimes.

 

[81usaf92]

I don't really want to get into a long winded argument about this today. I don't have the energy for it.

But I'll respond to this one post and then we'll just have to agree to disagree.



a couple things here. I don't know that we can just make up numbers because the whole point of analytics is the numbers being based on actual data. So this is just a made up situation that idk if it is even accurate thing that would occur. I doubt analytics would tell you to do something that increases your likelihood of success by 1% if you are successful while decreasing your likelihood of success by 10% if you fail. That just doesn't seem like a very analytical conclusion to make.




That's not a counter to analytics when the whole point of analytics is that it takes into account all the possible scenarios. At least the good models do for the most part. Analytics DO consider what happens in worst case scenario. That's frankly the part of what Saban said that makes no sense. It considers what happens if you don't convert.

Also what we are talking about here largely is going for it on 4th down. Which is one of the better modelling we have. Pass vs run is way more up in the air but FWIW analytics tends to tell you to run more in the redzone. Again, Analytics DOES consider things like interceptions.



Sure the model can't know everything. But can a coach know everything? Of course not. Saying a model can't be perfect doesn't really mean much when the alternative is a human decision based on what? gut? Can gut know everything? Or maybe you'll say experience but the overall point still stands.



few things here. 1. Good models consider the teams playing not just generic teams. and also this is why i think its overall probably more effective in the NFL because there is more parody and things are more equal. Idk what data specific people are looking at. 2. The whole point is to win a game not lose a close game. sometimes taking risks mean it might not work out and you might lose by more. But who really cares? the point is to win. This is an extreme example to make a point but if you're down 7 with 1:00 left and you're at the 20 and its 4th down. You could kick a field goal and make the game closer but you're not going to win. Or you could go for it and yes the loss would be a bigger loss but kicking a field goal for a closer win isn't really the point.



By this logic how could you every call any play with Milroe as your QB? You don't know if you'll get good or bad Milroe then might as well never call a passing play? This doesn't make sense to me.



Agreed no model will ever be perfect but if perfect is what we are aiming for we just shouldn't use any information ever. Because no information is ever perfect. The human brain for example is known to be emotional and make decisions based on emotion in high pressure situations. That is why people often recommend having a financial advisor to manage your money. Individual investors often act emotionally and buy when the market it high and sell when the market is low. Which is obviously not a recipe for success.

Ultimately analytics are a tool to be used to HELP make decisions. I don't think anyone should go 100% with what a model says all the time. But I do think it can be an incredible useful tool. Does that mean sometimes you will lose a game by more points? almost definitely. But it also means that if used well I think they will help decrease the margin for error during other parts of the game.

There is also this weird assumption that kicking a field goal or punting has no risk but that's simply not true. If you punt of kick you are giving the other team the ball and with that there is a chance you don't see the ball again for example.

Anyway even Saban in that interview uses some analytics by asking how many points a turnover is worth in a game. I think he says 3.5 or something. Where does that number come from i wonder...

TLDR: No models aren't perfect, Yes sometimes things aren't going to go your way and you might even lose by more points than you would have. But a good model used correctly by a good coach will HELP you make the best decisions you can.

My ultimate point is that Saban is wrong in this interview. The models do consider what happens if you don't convert. That's not something it ignores.

Ultimately the reason it works better in the NFL than college is because there is far more risk if you don’t take a calculated risk if you don’t do it with the talent on teams. Everyone in the nfl has a great offensive and defensive line at the goal line and on 4th down. It’s why you see passes on the the goal line and on 3rd and short.

Also in the NFL there is a speed to the game that there is still not there in the college game. If you fail to score in a one score game with 5 minutes to go in the nfl then there is no guarantee that you will get the ball back. In college that still means that there is probably 3 more possessions left in the game.

I think people way too much look at analytics as Kiffin deciding to go for it 10 million times in the first half on his side of the ball and say the whole thing is hogwash. I’m constantly reminded that sabernomics in baseball had been dismissed for decades over just getting big name players, but now every organization in baseball uses sabernomics.