There is a weird scenario in which Bama,aTm, and UGA win out and the matchup is Georgia and aTm. It requires Florida and Kentucky to win this weekend
SECCG Tiebreaker scenario mess
- Thread starter Cruloc
- Start date
There is a weird scenario in which Bama,aTm, and UGA win out and the matchup is Georgia and aTm. It requires Florida and Kentucky to win this weekend
Kentucky and Florida win out. And all favorites other than them win out
I think eeyores are fighting other eeyores over the title of king eeyore ever since Coach Jeff went on an extended vacation
I just want to beat Auburn, get to the SECCG and have a shot to win the conference. We aren't very likely to win the national title given our in game issues......would be difficult to beat ATM too. But, I think we can win the conference. ATM has played the bottom half of the conference to get to where they are.
If we win out, go 10-2, and then beat undefeated A&M in the SECCG, we'll get one of the top four seeds due to SOS. No way the commitee takes the SOS doesn't count route again. They already know what's coming if that happens. Georgia wins out they, deservedly, get in the top 4. The winner of the Bama/A&M scenario above gets in the top 4.
It seems like some of these posts are assuming we are gonna lose to the barn. So glad you aren't suiting up!
Also, some of you are conflating the loss to FSU as impacting the SEC race. It has nothing at all to do with who goes to ATL. I see no info/tie break rules about games outside of the conference impacting who goes to the SECCG.
Also, remember when it comes to Georgia, we have the head to head win that puts us in before them in a tie-break situation between them and us.
I think where it probably gets weird is how Ole Miss gets in above us and Georgia assuming they win out and we get into the wierd wacky weeds tie breakers. To be sure OM has the longest road and worse odds to get to the SEC game as things currently stand.
Right now, ATM controls their own destiny - beat UTa and they are in, no questions. It would get weird if TAMU losses - according to a 247 article: "...if the Aggies lose, the odds of them making it to Atlanta are pretty long given the fact that Auburn has to beat Alabama and Mississippi State would have to beat Ole Miss."
The following assumes TAMU beats UT:
Alabama - beat the barn and we...unless we get in weird 3 way tie with Georgia AND OM.
Georgia - is in if we lose to the barn.
OM - needs TAMU and Bamu to lose their last SEC games OR they need a 3 way tie with us and Geogia. They have the longest odds.
Basically...if it goes "as expected" and TAMU and Bama win (and there are no other weird upsets, it'll be TAMU vs. Bama in the SEC championship
I'll include a portion of an article from CBS that explains these situations below:
Also, some of you are conflating the loss to FSU as impacting the SEC race. It has nothing at all to do with who goes to ATL. I see no info/tie break rules about games outside of the conference impacting who goes to the SECCG.
Also, remember when it comes to Georgia, we have the head to head win that puts us in before them in a tie-break situation between them and us.
I think where it probably gets weird is how Ole Miss gets in above us and Georgia assuming they win out and we get into the wierd wacky weeds tie breakers. To be sure OM has the longest road and worse odds to get to the SEC game as things currently stand.
Right now, ATM controls their own destiny - beat UTa and they are in, no questions. It would get weird if TAMU losses - according to a 247 article: "...if the Aggies lose, the odds of them making it to Atlanta are pretty long given the fact that Auburn has to beat Alabama and Mississippi State would have to beat Ole Miss."
The following assumes TAMU beats UT:
Alabama - beat the barn and we...unless we get in weird 3 way tie with Georgia AND OM.
Georgia - is in if we lose to the barn.
OM - needs TAMU and Bamu to lose their last SEC games OR they need a 3 way tie with us and Geogia. They have the longest odds.
Basically...if it goes "as expected" and TAMU and Bama win (and there are no other weird upsets, it'll be TAMU vs. Bama in the SEC championship
I'll include a portion of an article from CBS that explains these situations below:
Texas A&M reaches SEC Championship if ...
- Beat Texas OR
- Auburn beats Alabama, Mississippi State beats Ole Miss
Alabama reaches SEC Championship if ...
- Beat Auburn, Texas beats Texas A&M OR
- Beat Auburn, Mississippi State beats Ole Miss OR
- Beat Auburn; Alabama wins three-way tie with Ole Miss/Georgia based on SEC opponent winning percentage
Georgia reaches SEC Championship if ...
- Auburn beats Alabama OR
- Texas beats Texas A&M OR
- Ole Miss beats Mississippi State; Georgia wins three-way tie with Alabama/Ole Miss based on SEC opponent winning percentage
Ole Miss reaches SEC Championship if ...
- Beat Mississippi State, Texas beats Texas A&M, Auburn beats Alabama
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Simply......if Vandy beats Kentucky this weekend.....AND....we beat Auburn next weekend.....we are in Atlanta.
No we have to beat Auburn but as long as our opponents (TN/Vandy) win vs UGA opponents (Kentucky/Florida) we hold the three way tiebreaker.
Seems like we would win a 3-way tie with UGA and OM. first tie breaker is head to head. Within the group Bama is 1-0, OM is 0-1 and UGA is 1-1. Not sure if that is how they do it but seems simple so they probably do it different. I don't think Bama will get a first round bye no matter what happen. We are behind both OM OU and UGA and possibly A&M. Winning the SEC wouldn't jump the 1 loss teams. To me best case is getting a first round home game and lining up with Indiana for the second round.
A 3-way tie between Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama would not come into play and the tiebreaker process would move to the next step.
www.secsports.com
SEC Football Tie-Breaking Process - Southeastern Conference
Comprehensive coverage of SEC football, basketball, baseball and more, including live games, scores, schedules, standings and news
www.secsports.com
That has nothing to do with itBecause of one loss overall versus two and ranked higher...
Based on all my button pushing on that site it seems like the most important game to us, other than the obvious Auburn game, is a Vandy win. I couldn’t find any scenarios that had anyone other than us and Aggies or us and UGA in the game with the combination of Vandy beating Kentucky and Bama beating the Barn.
If Vandy loses this weekend and Florida beats Tennessee we would have to rely on Texas beating the Aggies or Missouri beating Arkansas & Vandy beating Tennessee.
If Vandy loses this weekend but UT beats Florida we still will have to rely on Texas, Mizzou, or Vandy to win next weekend.
As much as it pains me to root for Manziel Jr - this weekend it’s Anchor Down - Go ‘Dores!
Of course all of this is cyphered assuming Kiffin’s situation doesn’t blow up the Rebel Bears and cause them to fall apart and lose the Egg Bowl. If that happens the only thing that keeps us out of the game is a loss to the Barn.
If Vandy loses this weekend and Florida beats Tennessee we would have to rely on Texas beating the Aggies or Missouri beating Arkansas & Vandy beating Tennessee.
If Vandy loses this weekend but UT beats Florida we still will have to rely on Texas, Mizzou, or Vandy to win next weekend.
As much as it pains me to root for Manziel Jr - this weekend it’s Anchor Down - Go ‘Dores!
Of course all of this is cyphered assuming Kiffin’s situation doesn’t blow up the Rebel Bears and cause them to fall apart and lose the Egg Bowl. If that happens the only thing that keeps us out of the game is a loss to the Barn.
Right now the most likely scenario is if we beat Auburn, we’re in. Georgia needs some specific games to go their way to pass us in opponent winning percentage.
The question to me is, if we make it to the SEC Championship game and lose, do we make it to the playoffs? I’m not so sure. If we don’t make it to the Championship game, do we have a better chance at getting in with 2 losses instead of 3? That’s were we are with playoff football!
We beat the barn we are in the championship game, I don't trust this committee with three losses, they have the golden somerset ahead of us even though we have 4 quality wins to their 1, forget the loss at Florida State
Jmo
10-2 and we are 100% in
10-3 and we maybe have a 15-20% chance based on specific chaos happening.
It would be better to miss the SECCG.
There are a lot of 1-2 loss teams we are lumped in with now.
A 3rd loss virtually knocks us out without a lot of other teams picking up additional losses too.
If they start striking teams based on losing their conference championship... That will be the end of those games. Which no longer have a place in any case... I say get rid of them and just have a 16 team playoff. Can continue with bowl games or a loser bracket for the rest of the teams that don't make it in.
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