Tell me about Washington
- Thread starter bamaslammer
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NFL scouts...you seen how most of these teams draft?
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OK, I've compiled my numbers and cross checked them. I've been trying to develop a predictive model for the final four of college football via stats the last few years (sort of a Nate Silver attempt in my own ineptitude). So far, it has had very good results, and if I had just been willing to believe what the numbers kicked out last year, it would have been closer to correct. I began combing through the numbers prior to the Notre Dame game in 2013. Here's how this has worked so far:
It correctly predicted an Alabama wipeout of the Fighting Irish (and Spencer Tillman called it). The predicted score was 28-7.
It had Ohio St-Alabama as a toss-up.
I used it for the Seattle-New England Super Bowl and literally was going to have it dead on right....until Pete Carroll channeled his inner Les Miles.
It projected Alabama over Michigan State, 31-10, but I fudged the score to 31-17 because I couldn't believe it. And I had us beating Clemson, 27-13. (Well, I said 13 points and it was 12 until the final seconds..)
It had Carolina beating Denver last year, but even I thought Denver's defense was better than the model suggested. (This one WAS very close, though). I'm going to get clobbered, but I am man enough to lay my cards on the table and let's see what happens.
The number on the far left is what Washington's offense scored against the other team's defense. The other numbers are the defensive average PPG surrendered followed by a 'corrected ppg,' where both the game in question and other games that skew the numbers (like Arizona drilling 68 points against Texas Tech). I cut out the numbers not listed for each team. Note that it's always possible I missed something like, say, one of the TDs was a pick six but I've done my best to remove all of those. If I only missed one, it isn't going to substantially affect the overall analysis.
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
Washington offense scores 44.5 (40.9)
(35) Arizona – gives up 38.3 (38.6)
(44) Stanford – gives up 20.2 (18.0)
(70) Oregon – gives up 42.6 (40.1)
(41) Oregon St – gives up 30.5 (29.5)
(24) Utah – gives up 23.9 (23.2)
(66) Cal – gives up 42.6 (40.4)
(13) USC – gives up 22.2 (23.0, minus Alabama rout is 19.4)
(44) Arizona State gives up 39.8 (36.1)
(45) Washington State gives up 26.4 (24.7)
(34) Colorado – gives up 20.5 (20.5)
OBSERVATIONS ON OFFENSE
Washington has run up these numbers playing FIVE of the worst THIRTEEN defenses in the country (Rutgers, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona St, Cal) – including 3 of the five worst. Even if you eliminate the points Washington drilled into these teams, they are STILL 5 of the 13 worst. Seven of their 12 opponents (not including Portland State) are ranked 51st or higher in scoring defense.
Two teams – Utah and Arizona – essentially held Washington to the defensive average surrendered. The Huskies beat Arizona in overtime (indeed, they only had 28 in regulation from a team that normally gave up 38.3 in regulation) and Utah on a punt return in the fourth quarter that netted them the differential that won the game. USC held Washington a full nine points below their season average (and a TD below their average if one wishes to eliminate the Alabama 52-point onslaught as a mulligan). With a corrected offensive PPG average of 40.9, the Huskies still scored 40 points or more SIX times in the games that we’re counting to analyze them. The reality is that only one team, USC, really stopped Washington while two others held them at an expected performance but lost on anomalies. In short, it doesn’t seem to matter who the Huskies are playing, they do score points. USC, Colorado, and Stanford are about the same level of defense and Washington blew past two of them and lost to the third one. Washington averages 10.4 ppg ABOVE what the opposing defense surrenders. This would mean – all things being equal – the Huskies could expect to score 21 points against Alabama’s tenacious defense.
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE (remember - numbers on far right are CORRECTED for anomalies)
Washington defense surrenders 17.2 (19.3)
(17) Washington State – 38.2 (40.1)
(10) Colorado – 32.8 (31.5)
(24) Utah – 29.8 (30.3)
(28) Arizona – 24.8 (24.5)
(27) Cal – 37.1 (38.0)
(21) Oregon – 35.4 (37.2)
(18) Arizona State – 33.3 (24.3 – they hung 68 on Texas Tech)
(26) USC – 32.9 (35.9, removing the 6-point Alabama anomaly as well)
(17) Oregon State – 26.2 (25.2)
OBSERVATIONS
The best offense Washington played was the Washington State Cougars, and they more than handled them. Washington played seven of the top 42 offenses in college football and held ALL of them BELOW their season averages. In fact, Washington held all of their evaluated opponents except Arizona below their season averages, often substantially. On average, the Huskies held their opponents an average of 9.5 ppg below their season averages. Given that Alabama’s corrected offensive PPG is 32.9 then the Huskies IF ALL THINGS WERE EQUAL could be expected to hold Alabama to around 24 points.
ALABAMA
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
(45) USC – gives up 22.2 (19.4)
(27) Ole Miss – 34.0 (32.7)
(27) Kentucky – 31.2 (30.9)
(42) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.1 – inflated by Auburn’s 56-point deluge)
(42) Tennessee – 29.3 (27.5)
(26) Texas A/M – 24.5 (23.7)
(10) LSU – 16.4 (17.0)
(51) MSU – 31.8 (30.2)
(30) Auburn – 15.6 (14.2)
(41) Florida – 17.9 (14.6)
OBSERVATIONS
It is truly bizarre that the ‘worst offensive performances’ of the season for Alabama came against Ole Miss and Kentucky. In fact in the Ole Miss game, the defense and special teams scored nearly as many points (21) as the offense did, and the offense actually gave up 7 points as well. One must not go overboard, however, in reading too much into the Ole Miss game – Mississippi State hung 55 points on the Rebels. Does anyone seriously think MSU was even in the same zip code as Alabama (51-3 anyone)? And then remember that Kentucky still managed to beat Louisville. In short, Alabama’s offense averaged about 10 ppg ABOVE what opponents usually allow, and in the final three games the numbers were very impressive: 21, 16, and 27 points. Alabama hit their stride in the season’s home stretch. This suggests that if all things were equal then Alabama could expect to score 29 points against Washington. If Alabama does continue the trend of playing based on the competition, a final points total of 39 is not out of the question.
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE
(6) USC – 32.9 (35.9)
(37) Ole Miss – 32.6 (31.0 – numbers again fell when Kelly left for season)
(6) Kentucky – 31.0 (28.3)
(30) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.8)
(10) Tennessee – 36.3 (25.3 – inflated by 55 points vs Tenn Tech)
(14) Texas A/M – 34.8 (31.8, but numbers fell once Knight was gone)
(0) LSU – 28.3 (27.7)
(3) MSU – 30.4 (26.5)
(12) Auburn – 32.2 (20.8 – Ark St, ULM, Alabama AM and even Ark inflate numbers)
(14) Florida – 23.4 (22.6)
OBSERVATIONS
To put it mildly, it’s one hell of a defense. Washington's defense is very good, Alabama's is even better.
Even including the teams I chose to leave out – UTC, WKU, and Kent State – Alabama has played 13 games and the defense has not only held 11 of the teams below point averages……they’ve held TEN opponents TWENTY POINTS BELOW expected averages (the 2012 team had most teams around 10 points below; I never examined 2011). One was eight points below (Florida), one tied (Arky), and Ole Miss yet again was the anomaly. The data suggests that all things being equal, Alabama should be able to hold Washington to around 20 points.
Based on numerical evaluations of the offense and defense individually, we surmise:
Alabama has a mean points range of 24-29 while Washington has a mean points range of 20-21 points. Thus, if all things were considered equal based on the numbers test, a predictive score of Alabama winning by 27-20 would seem about right. This bare bones approach also suggests that if Washington could gain a non-offensive TD with their excellent turnover ratio, it might be enough to flip the final score.
COMMON OPPONENTS
The two teams share one common opponent, USC, and it’s very difficult to derive much useful information from the games because it is almost as though two entirely different teams took the field wearing red and gold. Based on Sagarin rankings, Alabama has played a substantially tougher schedule than Washington, beating six teams in the top 30 while the Huskies are at a respectable 4-1.
But there's a catch to all this as well......when you go BELOW the top 30 Sagarin opponents....
Alabama beat - Tennessee (36), Arkansas (47), MSU (50), Ole Miss (61), Kentucky (62)
Washington beat - Cal (53), Oregon St (66), Oregon (69), Idaho (82), Ariz St (83)
In short, even below the top 30, Alabama played FIVE MORE opponents ranked higher than all but one of Washington's opponents. This weights heavily in Alabama's favor as well.
CROSS COMMON OPPONENTS
This is where two opponents of the two teams in the game played the same team. For example, even though they’re stripped out of the evaluation, Idaho played App State, who also played Tennessee. To give a few examples, Stanford beat Kansas State who beat Texas A/M. Of course, ATM scored more points (28) than did Stanford, but they also surrendered more.
Washington drilled Colorado as did Michigan. Michigan survived Wisconsin, who barely beat LSU (and in all honesty should have lost)
MISCELLANOUS POINTS
Alabama played one team with a higher PPG output (WKU) and held them well below their average (a full 35 points in fact). Washington played no offenses better than Alabama.
Alabama played five rushing offenses better than Washington and obliterated all five of them, holding each to a fraction of their normal output. Washington played no teams with a better rushing offense than Alabama. Their best rushing opponent, Arizona, well exceeded their per game average and gave the Huskies their biggest scare apart from the USC loss. The second best rushing team, Oregon, had numbers inflated by the fact they began rushing almost every play after falling behind by 28 points, presumably in an attempt to avoid embarrassment (they failed in that task, too). The third best rushing opponent Washington played was Stanford, and they did extremely well, holding the Cardinal to 29 yards on 30 attempts. Utah came within a single yard of their per game average and lost on a special teams play. The Huskies also did well halting USC’s rushing game, losing via the pass. The problem, of course, was Washington only had 17 yards rushing themselves. They also did very well against a decent running team in Colorado.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The question when looking at the numbers is how big of a gap is there between the two sets of opponents or – more precisely – IS there any gap? Much is made of the fact that the SEC does not have a team other than Alabama with fewer than four losses, a true observation but one that begs context. Part of the reason for that unusual phenomenon has been the fact that several teams – LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss and ATM – were completely different teams at different times of the season. Auburn probably lost the Georgia game due to injuries while LSU was three plays from being 10-1 and in the national title discussion. (Indeed, with their #11 Sagarin ranked schedule, a serious argument could have been made for LSU’s inclusion over Washington had the Tigers made the two comeback plays against Florida and Wisconsin and snapped the ball just a hair quicker against Auburn. (And Les Miles would still be the head coach there, too).
In the Pac 12, USC was a totally different team than Alabama played, and Huskies fans are correct that Alabama would not beat USC by a 52-6 score nowadays. Of course, they fail to consider that USC still wouldn’t beat Alabama by a 26-13 score, either.
Based on consistency, Alabama is far more likely to hold Washington to 13 points than Washington is to hang 40 on Alabama. The losses of Alabama in the secondary, particularly Eddie Jackson, present a challenge as well. It should be an Alabama home crowd given the proximity of the Georgia Dome to the Heart of Dixie. Washington will likely score a ‘cheap’ (or easy seeming anyway) touchdown early. The Tide likely turns the ball over at least with a margin of negative one. It hasn’t hurt the team thus far. Look for a close battle for the first half and the Crimson and White to pull away in the mid-third to late fourth quarter. Statistics do not play football games, but they do show that within the confines of numbers, Washington does well.
Alabama 30 Washington 16
And if I'm wrong on the details, well, so what?
It correctly predicted an Alabama wipeout of the Fighting Irish (and Spencer Tillman called it). The predicted score was 28-7.
It had Ohio St-Alabama as a toss-up.
I used it for the Seattle-New England Super Bowl and literally was going to have it dead on right....until Pete Carroll channeled his inner Les Miles.
It projected Alabama over Michigan State, 31-10, but I fudged the score to 31-17 because I couldn't believe it. And I had us beating Clemson, 27-13. (Well, I said 13 points and it was 12 until the final seconds..)
It had Carolina beating Denver last year, but even I thought Denver's defense was better than the model suggested. (This one WAS very close, though). I'm going to get clobbered, but I am man enough to lay my cards on the table and let's see what happens.
The number on the far left is what Washington's offense scored against the other team's defense. The other numbers are the defensive average PPG surrendered followed by a 'corrected ppg,' where both the game in question and other games that skew the numbers (like Arizona drilling 68 points against Texas Tech). I cut out the numbers not listed for each team. Note that it's always possible I missed something like, say, one of the TDs was a pick six but I've done my best to remove all of those. If I only missed one, it isn't going to substantially affect the overall analysis.
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
Washington offense scores 44.5 (40.9)
(35) Arizona – gives up 38.3 (38.6)
(44) Stanford – gives up 20.2 (18.0)
(70) Oregon – gives up 42.6 (40.1)
(41) Oregon St – gives up 30.5 (29.5)
(24) Utah – gives up 23.9 (23.2)
(66) Cal – gives up 42.6 (40.4)
(13) USC – gives up 22.2 (23.0, minus Alabama rout is 19.4)
(44) Arizona State gives up 39.8 (36.1)
(45) Washington State gives up 26.4 (24.7)
(34) Colorado – gives up 20.5 (20.5)
OBSERVATIONS ON OFFENSE
Washington has run up these numbers playing FIVE of the worst THIRTEEN defenses in the country (Rutgers, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona St, Cal) – including 3 of the five worst. Even if you eliminate the points Washington drilled into these teams, they are STILL 5 of the 13 worst. Seven of their 12 opponents (not including Portland State) are ranked 51st or higher in scoring defense.
Two teams – Utah and Arizona – essentially held Washington to the defensive average surrendered. The Huskies beat Arizona in overtime (indeed, they only had 28 in regulation from a team that normally gave up 38.3 in regulation) and Utah on a punt return in the fourth quarter that netted them the differential that won the game. USC held Washington a full nine points below their season average (and a TD below their average if one wishes to eliminate the Alabama 52-point onslaught as a mulligan). With a corrected offensive PPG average of 40.9, the Huskies still scored 40 points or more SIX times in the games that we’re counting to analyze them. The reality is that only one team, USC, really stopped Washington while two others held them at an expected performance but lost on anomalies. In short, it doesn’t seem to matter who the Huskies are playing, they do score points. USC, Colorado, and Stanford are about the same level of defense and Washington blew past two of them and lost to the third one. Washington averages 10.4 ppg ABOVE what the opposing defense surrenders. This would mean – all things being equal – the Huskies could expect to score 21 points against Alabama’s tenacious defense.
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE (remember - numbers on far right are CORRECTED for anomalies)
Washington defense surrenders 17.2 (19.3)
(17) Washington State – 38.2 (40.1)
(10) Colorado – 32.8 (31.5)
(24) Utah – 29.8 (30.3)
(28) Arizona – 24.8 (24.5)
(27) Cal – 37.1 (38.0)
(21) Oregon – 35.4 (37.2)
(18) Arizona State – 33.3 (24.3 – they hung 68 on Texas Tech)
(26) USC – 32.9 (35.9, removing the 6-point Alabama anomaly as well)
(17) Oregon State – 26.2 (25.2)
OBSERVATIONS
The best offense Washington played was the Washington State Cougars, and they more than handled them. Washington played seven of the top 42 offenses in college football and held ALL of them BELOW their season averages. In fact, Washington held all of their evaluated opponents except Arizona below their season averages, often substantially. On average, the Huskies held their opponents an average of 9.5 ppg below their season averages. Given that Alabama’s corrected offensive PPG is 32.9 then the Huskies IF ALL THINGS WERE EQUAL could be expected to hold Alabama to around 24 points.
ALABAMA
OFFENSE VERSUS DEFENSE
(45) USC – gives up 22.2 (19.4)
(27) Ole Miss – 34.0 (32.7)
(27) Kentucky – 31.2 (30.9)
(42) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.1 – inflated by Auburn’s 56-point deluge)
(42) Tennessee – 29.3 (27.5)
(26) Texas A/M – 24.5 (23.7)
(10) LSU – 16.4 (17.0)
(51) MSU – 31.8 (30.2)
(30) Auburn – 15.6 (14.2)
(41) Florida – 17.9 (14.6)
OBSERVATIONS
It is truly bizarre that the ‘worst offensive performances’ of the season for Alabama came against Ole Miss and Kentucky. In fact in the Ole Miss game, the defense and special teams scored nearly as many points (21) as the offense did, and the offense actually gave up 7 points as well. One must not go overboard, however, in reading too much into the Ole Miss game – Mississippi State hung 55 points on the Rebels. Does anyone seriously think MSU was even in the same zip code as Alabama (51-3 anyone)? And then remember that Kentucky still managed to beat Louisville. In short, Alabama’s offense averaged about 10 ppg ABOVE what opponents usually allow, and in the final three games the numbers were very impressive: 21, 16, and 27 points. Alabama hit their stride in the season’s home stretch. This suggests that if all things were equal then Alabama could expect to score 29 points against Washington. If Alabama does continue the trend of playing based on the competition, a final points total of 39 is not out of the question.
DEFENSE VERSUS OFFENSE
(6) USC – 32.9 (35.9)
(37) Ole Miss – 32.6 (31.0 – numbers again fell when Kelly left for season)
(6) Kentucky – 31.0 (28.3)
(30) Arkansas – 30.8 (29.8)
(10) Tennessee – 36.3 (25.3 – inflated by 55 points vs Tenn Tech)
(14) Texas A/M – 34.8 (31.8, but numbers fell once Knight was gone)
(0) LSU – 28.3 (27.7)
(3) MSU – 30.4 (26.5)
(12) Auburn – 32.2 (20.8 – Ark St, ULM, Alabama AM and even Ark inflate numbers)
(14) Florida – 23.4 (22.6)
OBSERVATIONS
To put it mildly, it’s one hell of a defense. Washington's defense is very good, Alabama's is even better.
Even including the teams I chose to leave out – UTC, WKU, and Kent State – Alabama has played 13 games and the defense has not only held 11 of the teams below point averages……they’ve held TEN opponents TWENTY POINTS BELOW expected averages (the 2012 team had most teams around 10 points below; I never examined 2011). One was eight points below (Florida), one tied (Arky), and Ole Miss yet again was the anomaly. The data suggests that all things being equal, Alabama should be able to hold Washington to around 20 points.
Based on numerical evaluations of the offense and defense individually, we surmise:
Alabama has a mean points range of 24-29 while Washington has a mean points range of 20-21 points. Thus, if all things were considered equal based on the numbers test, a predictive score of Alabama winning by 27-20 would seem about right. This bare bones approach also suggests that if Washington could gain a non-offensive TD with their excellent turnover ratio, it might be enough to flip the final score.
COMMON OPPONENTS
The two teams share one common opponent, USC, and it’s very difficult to derive much useful information from the games because it is almost as though two entirely different teams took the field wearing red and gold. Based on Sagarin rankings, Alabama has played a substantially tougher schedule than Washington, beating six teams in the top 30 while the Huskies are at a respectable 4-1.
But there's a catch to all this as well......when you go BELOW the top 30 Sagarin opponents....
Alabama beat - Tennessee (36), Arkansas (47), MSU (50), Ole Miss (61), Kentucky (62)
Washington beat - Cal (53), Oregon St (66), Oregon (69), Idaho (82), Ariz St (83)
In short, even below the top 30, Alabama played FIVE MORE opponents ranked higher than all but one of Washington's opponents. This weights heavily in Alabama's favor as well.
CROSS COMMON OPPONENTS
This is where two opponents of the two teams in the game played the same team. For example, even though they’re stripped out of the evaluation, Idaho played App State, who also played Tennessee. To give a few examples, Stanford beat Kansas State who beat Texas A/M. Of course, ATM scored more points (28) than did Stanford, but they also surrendered more.
Washington drilled Colorado as did Michigan. Michigan survived Wisconsin, who barely beat LSU (and in all honesty should have lost)
MISCELLANOUS POINTS
Alabama played one team with a higher PPG output (WKU) and held them well below their average (a full 35 points in fact). Washington played no offenses better than Alabama.
Alabama played five rushing offenses better than Washington and obliterated all five of them, holding each to a fraction of their normal output. Washington played no teams with a better rushing offense than Alabama. Their best rushing opponent, Arizona, well exceeded their per game average and gave the Huskies their biggest scare apart from the USC loss. The second best rushing team, Oregon, had numbers inflated by the fact they began rushing almost every play after falling behind by 28 points, presumably in an attempt to avoid embarrassment (they failed in that task, too). The third best rushing opponent Washington played was Stanford, and they did extremely well, holding the Cardinal to 29 yards on 30 attempts. Utah came within a single yard of their per game average and lost on a special teams play. The Huskies also did well halting USC’s rushing game, losing via the pass. The problem, of course, was Washington only had 17 yards rushing themselves. They also did very well against a decent running team in Colorado.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The question when looking at the numbers is how big of a gap is there between the two sets of opponents or – more precisely – IS there any gap? Much is made of the fact that the SEC does not have a team other than Alabama with fewer than four losses, a true observation but one that begs context. Part of the reason for that unusual phenomenon has been the fact that several teams – LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss and ATM – were completely different teams at different times of the season. Auburn probably lost the Georgia game due to injuries while LSU was three plays from being 10-1 and in the national title discussion. (Indeed, with their #11 Sagarin ranked schedule, a serious argument could have been made for LSU’s inclusion over Washington had the Tigers made the two comeback plays against Florida and Wisconsin and snapped the ball just a hair quicker against Auburn. (And Les Miles would still be the head coach there, too).
In the Pac 12, USC was a totally different team than Alabama played, and Huskies fans are correct that Alabama would not beat USC by a 52-6 score nowadays. Of course, they fail to consider that USC still wouldn’t beat Alabama by a 26-13 score, either.
Based on consistency, Alabama is far more likely to hold Washington to 13 points than Washington is to hang 40 on Alabama. The losses of Alabama in the secondary, particularly Eddie Jackson, present a challenge as well. It should be an Alabama home crowd given the proximity of the Georgia Dome to the Heart of Dixie. Washington will likely score a ‘cheap’ (or easy seeming anyway) touchdown early. The Tide likely turns the ball over at least with a margin of negative one. It hasn’t hurt the team thus far. Look for a close battle for the first half and the Crimson and White to pull away in the mid-third to late fourth quarter. Statistics do not play football games, but they do show that within the confines of numbers, Washington does well.
Alabama 30 Washington 16
And if I'm wrong on the details, well, so what?
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Probably thinking:
Vita
Qualls
Jones
Baker
Gaines
King
Though honestly, only Jones is a sure thing. Budda is probably a little small in the Honey Badger mold and I'm thinking 2nd. Qualls was listed as #12 prospect on Kiper's big board a month or so ago. Vita just posted a 34" vert at 330 pounds or so, and he'll put up bonker numbers at the combine. King is a solid cover corner and scouts will like what they see when they look at his tape.
I will say this, the betting patterns on this game are a little odd. Based on what I'm reading from the wiseguy press. the pros are betting on Washington to cover, and also betting the money line at 650. The joe blow gamblers are going hard Bama, but the pros gamblers are siding with Washington to at least cover (Venetian group has taken a number of 5 figure money line bets on Washington). Spread jumped to 17 with all the "they'll blow them out" Bama press, but once the casinos opened up the 5+ figure bets, the pros tended to lean more Washington to bring it back down.
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Here's the part I have yet to understand....why do people keep referring to "this guy is gonna play in the NFL?" Why does anyone assume that makes his TEAM as a whole better?
How many times have you seen a guy who was GREAT in college and awful in the NFL?
Trent Richardson
Johnny Manziel
Ryan Leaf
Mike Rozier
How many times have you seen a guy who was GREAT in the NFL and no great shakes in college?
Walter Payton
Jerry Rice
Richard Dent
Kurt Warner
Two arguments that never impress me:
1) "They've got a bunch of five stars" (yeah, remember when Notre Dame won the recruiting title every year prior to about 2003......and had a bunch of mediocre seasons?)
2) "They've got a bunch of NFL players on that team" (doesn't do much good right now)
Further to the point, these guys aren't all 1st rounders this year. Even for the ones who can go out this year, he's still projecting. The ones who aren't draft eligible after the season he's even projecting further. It is a dumb argument. If he said "better talent than people realize and ideal scheme for stopping Bama's offense" then cool...he watches a lot of ball, I respect that.
From what I've seen, Alabama can do a lot of things that bothered UDub in their closest games. And he's underrating that Alabama probably has upward 6 or more future first rounders on offense. We are significantly better than them on the perimeter of the line of scrimmage which is where we like to run anyway...we just need the guards to not olé.
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Tom Brady pick 199 and 7th qb taken is enough to show you how reliable a NFL scout is at picking players.
The real successful NFL teams have head coaches that have the knowledge of what the team, the individual, and the back office needs to succeed and to know which should be fed when and how in specific situations. Jimmie Johnson, and Bill Belichick are probably the best in the last 25 years at forming teams that are built with real NFL potential.
Pro talent is a decent proxy for college talent. Sure, you'll get outliers, but outliers don't disprove the general rule. I don't think it is a coincidence that the great UW team ever (91) had 11 players drafted the same year we won it (including the #1 overrall pick and 2 first rounders). Heck, it favors you guys, as you undoubtely have more NFL talent than we do.
With that said, Oregon has a buttload of 5 stars and pros, and we boat roaced them, so there's that...
With that said, Oregon has a buttload of 5 stars and pros, and we boat roaced them, so there's that...
That scout needs to stick to the NFL. Bama is MUCH more talented than UW.
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Alabama is inarguably more talented in that matchup. The question is whether their more veteran, NFL-talent-filled secondary can bait a true freshman QB into bad throws. They like sitting in zone and baiting bad throws from the QBs. Ideally, I'd love to see us abuse them off-tackle with the tailbacks and force them to get out of their comfort "zone" coverages.
Peterson can develop players. Same can't be said for Oregon's recently fired coach. You can have all the talent in the world but without someone to continue their development and to bring out their best on the field you end up with Oregon, Tennessee, and Notre Dame this year.
Oregon also doesn't have a natural base and has never been above 13th in the 247 Composite Rankings in this 5-year cycle (2012-2016). They've usually finished in the 20s. Washington has always had the better natural recruiting base despite the Seattle metro not necessarily being Houston metro or Los Angeles metro in HS football. Oregon has done better than Washington but not very much more which is telling considering Oregon's success over the time period. We're only 2 seasons removed of Oregon being the 2-seed in the first playoffs. Washington has basically been playing for bowl season over the time period until this season.
Washington went the "developmental program" route much like Oregon when they hired Petersen. Oregon went down in flames because they finally lost their ability to develop a quarterback that had been consistent for the better part of 20 years. The difference between Petersen and the Oregon regime is that he develops a program where the QB isn't so central to the team's success.
Washington went the "developmental program" route much like Oregon when they hired Petersen. Oregon went down in flames because they finally lost their ability to develop a quarterback that had been consistent for the better part of 20 years. The difference between Petersen and the Oregon regime is that he develops a program where the QB isn't so central to the team's success.
Can't disagree with much you've said here, though Oregon has been able to take the top players out of the State of Washington, but Sark helped slow that down (US started with Jonathan Stewart, the current Carolina RB who is from Washington). But you make fair points.
I miss the DJ years though. Though not an exact science back in those days (Blue Chips, Lemming, etc.), but he'd bring in top 10 classes frequently, and get players from Texas, Virginia and Florida from time to time.
Petersen has established something, so I imagine he's gonna start pulling kids out of California. I think Petersen did some work in Texas and Florida while at Boise too.
I don't like the predicted outcome, but wow, this is good stuff. Thanks for posting.
Remember that MINE is STRICTLY by numbers. I actually disagree up to a certain point that the SEC schedule that Alabama faced as a whole is other worldly better than the Pac 12. And what I see here, basically, is a game that's probably about 20-17 Alabama mid to late in the third quarter. One other observation is that both teams TEND to be 'front runners' - Washington has not yet trailed by more than seven points all year long. That is the one scenario I could see them imploding - let's say Alabama takes the opening kickoff down for a TD, Washington does a three and out, Alabama scores a quick one to go up 14-0 and then gets a pick six....and we're still in the first quarter. I don't think that's what will happen, but that's the one way I could see UW collapsing under the weight of the game pressure.
In other words, if one team is penalized more than normal or turns the ball over more than normal...my numbers go to pot. If Washington opened up a quick 21-0 lead against Alabama, it is far less guaranteed that 'well, this one looks to be over.' The Tide, though, has only had two second half deficits all year long. We got behind Ole Miss, 24-3, in the second quarter and trailed at the half and then ATM took the lead in the third quarter. Mike Greenberg noted on Twitter that Alabama's first quarter performance was so dominant that they should have been up about 31-6.
You guys have some talented players and a very good team - and maybe 2-3 years from now we're talking Huskies favored in a rematch, who knows?
But that prediction is close enough that 2 turnovers by us could greatly flip it. Keep in mind that my final score assumes Alabama does NOT get a devastating NOT (non-offensive touchdown). But what frustrates teams is games like Florida. Alabama had minus seven yards of offense for the entire quarter, the defense surrendered its first touchdown in 18 quarters......and the Tide had 16 points on the scoreboard, pretty much enough to have won the game right then.
And we do that a lot. Even some of the opponent TDs have NOTHING to do with our defense letting up or giving up a drive. Alabama has only surrendered 15 TDs all year while the defense/special teams have scored 13. Ole Miss got a TD on a fumble return for touchdown and Tennessee got their only TD because of a missed block where Hurts got pancaked and fumbled at his own 11. WKU's touchdown came on an absolutely horrific hot Southern day (high humidity, high temp, fans passing out) against our 'scrubs.'
But when I looked into the numbers, Washington was more impressive than I thought they would be. While it is true that the Huskies ran up some huge numbers against the lower rungs of the nation's defenses, their performance against BETTER Pac 12 defenses was just as good save for USC. That's why I caution Tide fans not to read too much into the USC game and Huskies fans not to think the Ole Miss game is representative of Alabama, either.
Colorado getting creamed by Okie State did not make the Pac 12 look any better but...the SEC's 1-5 bowl record hasn't exactly made Alabama's schedule gauntlet look nearly as imposing, either. I mean, the Big 12 was no great shakes this year and manages to blow out the Pac 12 runner-up.
Maybe UGA-TCU will provide some more illumination on the conference strengths.
