The Decline of the DNC II

selmaborntidefan

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As I mentioned over on the reading thread, I'm going through the new Jonathan Allen and Amie Parmes book "Fight" that was released yesterday and purports to be the inside story of the Democrats' 2024 disaster of replacing Biden with Harris. Most of the shock value things have been - unsurprisingly - reported and in many cases oversold by clickbait headlines and media. Furthermore, I don't think there's been anything in the book so far that would "really" surprise anyone who knows how the movers and shakers all talk to and about one another.

I'm at page 90 of a 317-page book of text (it's about 400 with all the hub-bub), and so far:

- there was a noticeable shift in Biden's "acting foggy" in the spring of 2024*
- the time Biden asked for a dead GOP Congresswoman was a flash point for his side.
- Ds went full meltdown and one freshman seeking reelection in Michigan posted in an online chat that she was for "Governor Whitmer"
- this caused the Congressional Black Caucus to blow their stacks and basically say "if Biden withdraws, we will accept no replacement besides Harris"
- the black vs white scenario unfolded before Biden ever even left Atlanta (where the debate was)

- Harris was in LA and had to try to salvage something in the post-debate spin, something virtually nobody in her orbit thought she could do given her repeated fluffs in the VP role
- Harris, however, did a good job of framing it as "a choice in November about the future" and conceded it was not Biden's best night but didn't turn on him
- they set up a conference at 1230 AM after the debate and all hell broke loose
- they decided their spin would be that Biden started slowly but finished strong, which caused one of their wealthiest donors to tell them they were "living in a bleeping alternative universe" if they said it
- at 1 AM, a Biden spokesperson made it worse by sending a text message to several members of the press that said, "Of course he's not dropping out."

- this text had the effect of telling the media they were even talking about that concept
- Biden was old school and knew he had won in 2020 by not doing everything his new school consultants kept telling him to do, so his stubborn streak was sort of, "Hey, I won last time when you didn't think it would work"
- in 2023, the DNC began gameplanning scenarios for replacing him if necessary or what to do if Harris was suddenly thrust into the Oval Office**
- Harris would only be seen as a legitimate President if Biden DIED; if they removed him, she would be seen as a puppet
- they had a listing prepared and given to two different people of REPUBLICAN judges not appointed by Trump in every state in the country in case lightning struck; the idea was that a Republican judge administering the oath to Harris would be seen as more legitimate if it happened

- less than 48 hours after the debate, Biden was at a fundraiser in Jersey with some rich bigwigs; the fact he had to look at a fluorescent strips on the floor to walk to his place didn't help matters
- one rich donor said he was going to ask Biden if he was staying in the race and was told that was fine but at least have the courtesy to do so privately
- the fact Biden had a TelePrompTer set up in a small room to talk to these folks didn't help, either
- you would think Trump would be happy but - of course he wasn't. He wanted credit for "destroying" Biden and "showing strength" and all he was reading was how bad BIDEN had been, no credit

- remember when Trump vanished from the news for about 11 days? Well, he didn't want that, and he spent all that time whining about how he was no longer the story.
- Speaker Johnson then made a royal mistake by calling for Biden's removal, which was the last thing the GOP consultants wanted.
- let them figure it out, if they replace him there's less time, if they don't, it helps us
- the ONE THING the GOP feared was Harris in the White House running as the new President
- Morning Joe called for him to step aside as did a number of lefties
- when his manager (Jennifer O'Malley Dillon) tried to persuade donors, she looked like a hostage video
- Clyburn and Jefferies decided they were sticking with Biden and would not give up the black woman's place in line without a fight
- Lloyd Doggett called for him to step down; he could since he wasn't running for reelection
- Biden appeared to have caught a break when he went home for July 4, this too would pass

* - a lifelong "Reagan Democratic" friend of mine who admits to not being a medical person has long theorized Biden suffered a minor stroke somewhere between October 2023 and April 2024, not overly serious but serious enough for a person his age with his medical history (3 aneurysms in 1988) to reduce function even more. He's not a conspiracy theorist nor is he hostile to the Democrats, but he noticed a difference even before it became pronounced and said "It looks like something happened to him."

** - I doubt they really waited until 2023 to do this. This is smart preparation regardless, I just think don't want it to get out and sound like, "Hey, we were planning on replacing this guy - or him dying - from day one!"
 

selmaborntidefan

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- Bill Clinton knew any answer he gave would cause him problems, so he hid out
- Hillary declared she was voting for Biden in November
- Obama VAGUELY endorsed Biden but - key point - did not do the Hillary-type endorsement
- Obama's aides were throwing dirt on the still living Biden at every turn

- a Wall Street billionaire then made it clear: he wasn't given Biden another dime nor the Dems
- this wasn't an issue in July but it would be in September for the fall sprint
- this was where the DNC treasurer made the point that the only candidate who could legally use Biden's already raised funds was VP Harris; this was said both as advice AND as a warning
- almost every big-time donor hated Harris, which is why the warning shot was fired by the treasurer
- only one person could persuade Joe to withdraw - and Jill wasn't having it
- Pelosi then went on Jen Psaki's show and toyed with whether this was an "episode" or "condition"
- Former Sen. Landrieu (LA), whose brother was handling fundraising sent out a two word email: It's over

- the Dems knew they were stuck: for 3 years the GOP had said this guy wasn't all there and now they'd been caught redhanded lying about his mental capacity. How in the world could they now replace him except admit they'd been lying all this time?
- Obama's aides (Axelrod the loudest) were jumping on Biden; Obama wasn't, but he also wasn't telling his underlings to back off, either
- But Obama had his own choice to replace Biden: MI Governor Whitmer, but he also felt any person who got it would need the validation of some sort of voting primary
- Whitmer and Harris were the final 2 considerations in 2020 and didn't care for each other
- the donors wanted Whitmer, but she knew there was no upside to this
- if she undercut Biden/Harris and lost, her career was over
- if she won, she might split the party and goodbye 2028
- Whitmer thus announced she was unavailable, designed to assure everyone; after all, she might be squaring off against Harris in a primary in 2028

- Biden felt everything was typical liberal overreaction. After all, they'd pulled their hair repeatedly and pronounced his Covid relief bill, infrastructure, UAW labor contract and climate change bill "dead" - and he had passed every single one of them in a narrowly divided legislature in both houses
- on July 1, Biden caught a break when SCOTUS largely gave Trump immunity, delaying his cases
- this was where the Ds REALLY freaked out: what if Trump wins and can't be prosecuted in a second term?
- Biden gave a fiery speech about how he wouldn't violate his oath...but failed to say whether he was still in the race or not
- Tim Ryan, Nancy Pelosi and Lloyd Doggett all took to the shows to get Biden out
- Pelosi also wanted Harris - whom she'd known for years (San Fran) - gone
- the fog inside the D party worked in Biden's favor since the longer it went, the better for him
- Obama wanted Biden replaced but not by Harris, whom he didn't regard as able to win
- the legal team then let them know there was a deadline: August 7 and the Ohio ballot
- so the field operatives ran a poll

- the polling showed general things like Biden winning by 5 in districts he'd carried by 12
- this was the worst thing possible: dangerous to leave him on, dangerous to replace him
- the hope was it would show either it didn't matter or it was over
- in a conference call with the D governors, they unloaded on Biden
- most kept making references to "democracy"
- after biting her lip awhile, Harris weighed in that there were more important things than this democracy argument, everything the left loves from abortion to taxes
- six days later, Biden told them all he was staying on the ticket
- the problem? He couldn't convince the donor class

- on July 5, Biden self-immolated on an interview with Stephanopolous, who asked him if he'd gone back and watched the debate: "I don't think I did, no." (He didn't know if he'd done something in the last eight days???????)
- Biden kept saying he'd had a "bad night" but he looked no better here
 

selmaborntidefan

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The Democrat Party Just Hit a New LOW: 21% Approval!

I guess Cory Booker’s legendary filibuster really moved the needle…

In the wrong direction.

No reflection on you BUT.......

I've been told for ten years now that polls are all wrong and all fake.

So why should I suddenly believe this one? I was watching the GOP meltdown on Twitter last night over the Wisconsin court seat and they kept quoting that poll you cite. THESE SAME PEOPLE dismiss any poll showing anything bad about Trump as "fake polls," just like they dismiss elections as "rigged" if they don't like the outcome.
 
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selmaborntidefan

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- Biden thought if he could get the CA and NY delegations to endorse him, it would be over
- the loudest voice behind the scenes was Chuck Schumer, who wanted him gone
- Schumer felt the Ds could hold the Senate but not with Biden heading the ticket
- Biden viewed the House as "a hyperactive little brother" but yes, the Senate worried him
- on July 7, he announced he was going on "Morning Joe" - he made it worse when he CALLED in and was not seen on camera, a tactic that had both Ds and Rs saying he was "hiding"
- he challenged "the elites in our party" and basically dared them to run against him at the Convention

- Biden appealed in a letter to the officeholders that their priority HAD to be to "beat Trump"
- this set them off as they were already mad at him for calling them "elites" on TV
- after all, Biden had been in DC almost nonstop his whole life and was richer than most of them
- his party resented being told by the "most elite guy on the planet" that THEY were elites, and more than one noted that "he's the old grandpa who can't drive any longer but refuses to give up the keys"
- the same lawmaker said the longer it went, the better for Biden and then it was to make the best of it

- July 9, the Ds in the House have a meeting for two hours, some sneaking in the back way to not be seen by cameras. Knowing anything they said would leak, few said anything and it broke up with no consensus
- at the exact same time, the Senate gathered and only 6 favored keeping Biden (out of 51)
- Fetterman took up big time for Biden, noting his own recovery from a stroke
- Tester (MT) and Brown (OH) were convinced Biden on the ticket would cost them their Senate seats
- Biden opened a NATO conference that same night and fear was he would drop the medal he was giving
- the donor class essentially decided they weren't giving Biden any money - PERIOD

- ahe war was on. Repeatedly, Biden's camp warned all the donors that if they replaced him, it would be with Harris - and NOBODY else, a threat designed to keep him on the ticket
- they would then cite polls showing Harris was going to do worse than Biden
- it was at this point that Pelosi turned into Brutus and pulled off the mob hit
 

selmaborntidefan

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- Biden and Pelosi, born 75 miles apart, were Dem soulmates, both viewing themselves as Saviors
- Nancy's hope was to keep the House; she didn't "really" care about Trump except as secondary
- she appeared on Morning Joe and, much like Brutus in the name of saving the Republic, stuck the knife into Biden slowly and carefully
- asked if the supported Biden, she dodged with "it's up to the President to decide"
- word hit Wilmington and the response was "You know the word you, Nancy!"
- the campaign laughed at Pelosi's pretentiousness she was "on his side" with a smarmy smile all while undercutting him with her refusal to stick with him


- Pelosi's sellout increased the number of donors who weren't going to help them with Biden
- Biden then went over to the AFL-CIO, who said as always they had his back
- the union then questioned him privately and was about to release a statement when (gasp!) the story leaked and they demanded all union members put their phones out for checking to see who was texting which reporters; they never applied this loyalty test but still......
- the bigger question now was - even if we replace him....HOW?????

- Pelosi ran a yarn about their "deep bench" but also said "if he goes, she goes"
- her dislike of Harris was well-known, and she was not in the mood to elevate Kamala to the top
- everyone who wanted him gone had no idea: a) HOW and b) WHOM
- although Biden had only lost 1-2 points nationally, he was in serious trouble in the swing states
- Biden summoned Pelosi to a meeting, at which she promptly went with "I was misinterpreted"
- She pulled the old trick of "my colleagues" say, which was spinning an old DC pol
- they got an advance copy of a George Clooney NYT editorial that was going to savage Biden
- they tried to talk Clooney out of it, but it ran which made Biden's problems worse
- nobody knows most politicians; Clooney was known by millions
- there was another truth left unsaid: A LOT OF UNION GUYS LIKE TRUMP

- there was also the problem of Michigan, where the Hamas-Israel conflict threatened the Ds
- Biden had beaten Trump by only about 154K votes (<3 points) and lost 100K in the recent primary
- the UAW Prez (Fain) demanded Biden take his call - or else they were withdrawing endorsement
- he told Debbie Dingell, who advised him to wait until after an upcoming Biden visit
- but the fact was the UAW didn't have the votes to withdraw the endorsement
- Dingell wanted Biden gone but had sympathy; Pelosi had essentially stolen the Speakership from her late husband (John Dingell) using this same tactic, so she was less than fond of this tactic
- Dingell declared Pelosi is more ruthless than even most politicians......but she was right this time.




And then everything changed when on July 13, an assassin attempted to change the race even more.
 

selmaborntidefan

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- Susie Wiles (the daughter of Pat Summerall) had been hired and fired by Trump multiple times
- she helped engineer his comeback and turned him into a victim of Biden trying to DQ him
- in early May she texted her fear that if they couldn't get him this way, "they" might just kill Trump
-Trump didn't fear death, what he feared was prison so....win or go to jail
- most of his advisors had the same motivation to avoid the iron hotel

- Trump liked outdoor venues because they were cheap to rent; his advisors not so much because they were much more dangerous than securing an arena
- a nursing home aide named Thomas Crooks had been stalking Trump for a bit
- he told his colleagues he was taking Saturday off and his parents actually reported him missing
- after searching the area with a drone, he put 2 explosive devices in his car and bought 50 rounds
- an hour before the rally, a countersniper noticed him and took two pictures of him
- the counter watched Crooks nonstop for the next 18 minutes
- he even noticed Crooks had a "range finder" and was pointing it at the the podium area
- minutes later, he lost sight of Crooks and notified the SS
- at 602pm - after losing sight of him for 26 minutes - a sniper noticed Crooks with a backpack apparently moving between two buildings towards a local gas station
- two minutes later, Crooks scaled an AC unit a little over 100 yard away and then moved from roof to roof to get closer
- at 609pm, an LEO saw Crooks on one of the buildings briefly
- nobody had alerted SS....because they were on a different channel
- an officer got to the roof and was no more than six feet from Crooks, rifle pointed at the officer
- the officer released his grip and fell to the ground and informed all on radio "he's got a gun!"
- he also said Crooks was laying down and it was "a long gun"
- Trump actually jumped the gun with his illegal immigration chart and his team had placed it on the wrong screen - the one on Trump's right instead of his left
- 22 seconds later, three shots came out of the weapon with a pause followed by five more
- SS ordered him to get down, Trump losing his shoes and his MAGA hat falling off
- a Butler (PA) cop saw the smoke from the muzzle and Crooks got off one more shot
- the cop fired one round and the sniper told his team "I got him" - one shot only, Crooks dead in his sights
- Corey Comperatore, 51, was killed by a bullet
- seeing he had survived, Trump jumped up and shouted "fight! fight! fight!"
- twice more he gestured before being put into the safety van

- when Trump arrived at the Butler hospital, there were no other patients to be seen
- all had moved and cleared for the President
- he had been hit in the ear - and said he didn't know there was that much blood in an ear
- 20 minutes later, they were satisfied Trump had not been hit anywhere else
- Melania called and told Trump he wasn't going to Florida, he was going back to Bedminster
- this meant clearing the club of golfers and diners, delaying his return
- Trump began fielding calls, including one from President Biden
- Biden was at Mass when Trump was shot (622pm EDT)
- Schumer was on his way to see Biden.....he was going to have to get out of the race.




The United States of America came within an inch or so of having not one but BOTH leading candidates for President eliminated from the race on the same day, less than four months before the election.
 

AWRTR

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No reflection on you BUT.......

I've been told for ten years now that polls are all wrong and all fake.

So why should I suddenly believe this one? I was watching the GOP meltdown on Twitter last night over the Wisconsin court seat and they kept quoting that poll you cite. THESE SAME PEOPLE dismiss any poll showing anything bad about Trump as "fake polls," just like they dismiss elections as "rigged" if they don't like the outcome.
That's not a fair estimation of the situation. Just because there are some people that want to discount analysis doesn't mean you dismiss it out of hand. The polls really aren't bad at getting it pretty close to right. Trump has tended to out perform his polling historically, but he's an outlier and the pollsters tend to be within their margins of error. There are bad polling firms that we should take with a grain of salt, but the polling averages tend to be pretty spot on.

The Dems are in a hole and their only hope at this point is for Trump to fail on the economy. His other policies are viewed pretty positively. If these tariffs begin to weight the economy down he will have to back off quickly or he will sink himself. I'm 50/50 on which way he will go. I can see him going down with the ship due to stubbornness.
 

selmaborntidefan

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That's not a fair estimation of the situation.
This whole thing is my fault for not using the blue font.


Just because there are some people that want to discount analysis doesn't mean you dismiss it out of hand. The polls really aren't bad at getting it pretty close to right. Trump has tended to out perform his polling historically, but he's an outlier and the pollsters tend to be within their margins of error. There are bad polling firms that we should take with a grain of salt, but the polling averages tend to be pretty spot on.
I agree with all of this. But given the Trump advocates' propensity for the "over the top not connected with reality" comment, I tend to meet such with the same, mostly to demonstrate how ridiculous the people who parrot Trump's standard lines actually sound in everyday conversation.

"Fake news!"
"They're terrible!"
"He's a Dis-AS-ter!"

Wanna have fun? Quote a Trump voter back to themselves in the same tone they use.
They get really angry about it.

The Dems are in a hole and their only hope at this point is for Trump to fail on the economy.
A guy with six business bankruptcies who already cratered the economy once and who destroyed a football league with the same blind devotion to bad ideas is a pretty safe bet to mess it all up for everyone.

His other policies are viewed pretty positively. If these tariffs begin to weight the economy down he will have to back off quickly or he will sink himself. I'm 50/50 on which way he will go. I can see him going down with the ship due to stubbornness.
Trump's entire life has been:
1) borrow
2) spend
3) crash
4) declare bankruptcy

And it's not that he did this once like Vince McMahon, he's done this over and over and over and over again.

Trump has zero coattails in an election (seriously - name five candidates in the last ten years who wouldn't have won anyway). He's a disaster on the ballot for everyone else, and he's 0-for-every-election that doesn't involve him. Plus, it looks like the GOP knives are now aimed at each other.

===========================

Granted, the Democrats have insane case of "Stuck On Stupid."

Their slavish devotion to bad arguments that ultimately allow biological males to compete in female sports is the most tone deaf, out of touch with reality, goes against even a number of public LGBT personalities (most notably Martina Navratilova, a lesbian who once had transgender tennis player Renee Richards as her coach, hardly someone to dismiss as a "bigot") I've ever seen. Jon Tester found courage on this issue on Bill Maher as did Seth Moulton, right after the election. And let's be honest: Trump destroyed them on "let's throw open the border and oh sanctuary cities!" And the whole world saw, "wait, we didn't mean you could actually send them here, you meanies in Texas and Florida."


Btw - let me tell you what this book is informing me that I always knew: for all of the "Republicans need to stand up courageously against Trump", there weren't ANY Democrats willing to show that level of courage when it was "we need to replace the head of the ticket." Don't ever talk to me about how "the other party should take a stand for what's right" when you're not even willing to take a stand likely to have FAR FEWER consequences.
 
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Bazza

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The Democrat Party Just Hit a New LOW: 21% Approval!

I guess Cory Booker’s legendary filibuster really moved the needle…

In the wrong direction.

Yeah - I don't really get the whole Cory Booker thing. Was that him just trying to be relevant in some way?

And more importantly.......who can go 24 hours without a bathroom break?

Was he wearing Depends?

This is what should be reported on !!! :)
 
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selmaborntidefan

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If the election were held today, Republicans would lose big time in the House and probably the Senate.

Republicans know that. And they can either stand up to the circus, or watch it burn the country down.
True: timing is everything.

Reagan runs in November 1981/82/83/87, he probably loses.
Clinton runs in 94, he loses.

But yeah, this whole "okay, nobody gets nothing but here's a match" is revolting.
 

CrimsonJazz

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Lol, doubling down on the 20% (or less) of another 80/20 issue...

Georgia House Democrats walk out of the chamber en masse in protest of a Republican-backed bill to block taxpayer funds from being used to pay for gender-affirming care for state prison inmates.

Idiocy like this makes me want to run for public office as a Dem. The obvious difference is that I wouldn't change a single outlook that I have now and I would likely win in a landslide. It's mind-boggling to me that one can win an election in this country simply by not acting like a lunatic.
 
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dtgreg

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As I mentioned over on the reading thread, I'm going through the new Jonathan Allen and Amie Parmes book "Fight" that was released yesterday and purports to be the inside story of the Democrats' 2024 disaster of replacing Biden with Harris. Most of the shock value things have been - unsurprisingly - reported and in many cases oversold by clickbait headlines and media. Furthermore, I don't think there's been anything in the book so far that would "really" surprise anyone who knows how the movers and shakers all talk to and about one another.

I'm at page 90 of a 317-page book of text (it's about 400 with all the hub-bub), and so far:

- there was a noticeable shift in Biden's "acting foggy" in the spring of 2024*
- the time Biden asked for a dead GOP Congresswoman was a flash point for his side.
- Ds went full meltdown and one freshman seeking reelection in Michigan posted in an online chat that she was for "Governor Whitmer"
- this caused the Congressional Black Caucus to blow their stacks and basically say "if Biden withdraws, we will accept no replacement besides Harris"
- the black vs white scenario unfolded before Biden ever even left Atlanta (where the debate was)

- Harris was in LA and had to try to salvage something in the post-debate spin, something virtually nobody in her orbit thought she could do given her repeated fluffs in the VP role
- Harris, however, did a good job of framing it as "a choice in November about the future" and conceded it was not Biden's best night but didn't turn on him
- they set up a conference at 1230 AM after the debate and all hell broke loose
- they decided their spin would be that Biden started slowly but finished strong, which caused one of their wealthiest donors to tell them they were "living in a bleeping alternative universe" if they said it
- at 1 AM, a Biden spokesperson made it worse by sending a text message to several members of the press that said, "Of course he's not dropping out."

- this text had the effect of telling the media they were even talking about that concept
- Biden was old school and knew he had won in 2020 by not doing everything his new school consultants kept telling him to do, so his stubborn streak was sort of, "Hey, I won last time when you didn't think it would work"
- in 2023, the DNC began gameplanning scenarios for replacing him if necessary or what to do if Harris was suddenly thrust into the Oval Office**
- Harris would only be seen as a legitimate President if Biden DIED; if they removed him, she would be seen as a puppet
- they had a listing prepared and given to two different people of REPUBLICAN judges not appointed by Trump in every state in the country in case lightning struck; the idea was that a Republican judge administering the oath to Harris would be seen as more legitimate if it happened

- less than 48 hours after the debate, Biden was at a fundraiser in Jersey with some rich bigwigs; the fact he had to look at a fluorescent strips on the floor to walk to his place didn't help matters
- one rich donor said he was going to ask Biden if he was staying in the race and was told that was fine but at least have the courtesy to do so privately
- the fact Biden had a TelePrompTer set up in a small room to talk to these folks didn't help, either
- you would think Trump would be happy but - of course he wasn't. He wanted credit for "destroying" Biden and "showing strength" and all he was reading was how bad BIDEN had been, no credit

- remember when Trump vanished from the news for about 11 days? Well, he didn't want that, and he spent all that time whining about how he was no longer the story.
- Speaker Johnson then made a royal mistake by calling for Biden's removal, which was the last thing the GOP consultants wanted.
- let them figure it out, if they replace him there's less time, if they don't, it helps us
- the ONE THING the GOP feared was Harris in the White House running as the new President
- Morning Joe called for him to step aside as did a number of lefties
- when his manager (Jennifer O'Malley Dillon) tried to persuade donors, she looked like a hostage video
- Clyburn and Jefferies decided they were sticking with Biden and would not give up the black woman's place in line without a fight
- Lloyd Doggett called for him to step down; he could since he wasn't running for reelection
- Biden appeared to have caught a break when he went home for July 4, this too would pass

* - a lifelong "Reagan Democratic" friend of mine who admits to not being a medical person has long theorized Biden suffered a minor stroke somewhere between October 2023 and April 2024, not overly serious but serious enough for a person his age with his medical history (3 aneurysms in 1988) to reduce function even more. He's not a conspiracy theorist nor is he hostile to the Democrats, but he noticed a difference even before it became pronounced and said "It looks like something happened to him."

** - I doubt they really waited until 2023 to do this. This is smart preparation regardless, I just think don't want it to get out and sound like, "Hey, we were planning on replacing this guy - or him dying - from day one!"
"Joe Scarborough and other lefties". This is my only critique. Do you see what has happened?
 

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