The way too early discussion on whether Ty Simpson should return next season or enter the draft

[CoolBreeze]

Ty waited patiently for quite a while at Bama. There is a lot of tape on him and he knows how to play the position for winning football. He will play well the rest of the season and, regardless of our fate, he will enter the draft and get paid. No sense in coming back. Too many examples of guys stock dropping like a rock after making a similar mistake to come back.

 

[The Ols]

This is true but stars make way more money on their 2nd contract. Especially QBs. So if coming back increases his odds of a big 2nd contract then it would be worth it.

On the other hand going in gets you a year closer to that second contract…

 

[cdub55]

After reading this entire thread it is safe to say that I am ecstatic that some of you aren't the head football coach at Alabama.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

It depends on the team. If he goes to a team that plans on playing him early he wont have a chance to sit. Most teaams who draft QB's in the first round dont have the patience to let them sit for a full year. They want them on field whether theyre truly ready or not.

Most teams that have a high first round pick are desperate for a very good qb, so theres that...

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I can’t think of a QB that could have a better support system in place than Ty to make such a critical decision.

Yeah, I have to think that he and his dad will be looking at the OL improvements during the off-season before making a final decision...

 

[Tidewater]

After reading this entire thread it is safe to say that I am ecstatic that some of you aren't the head football coach at Alabama.

If Ty does come back, I'll be happy for him. I hope he wins up to his potential and Bama gets O-linemen and RBs and a scheme that wins, together.
I think Ty coming back will cost the program the services of Austin Mack or Russell, or both.
I do wish I could go back to August 2023 and use a crystal ball to show Coach Saban what 2023 and 2024 look like if he did not designate Ty as the starter.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

On the other hand going in gets you a year closer to that second contract…

Yup completely valid. But you are also less likely to make as much money on that contract. Plus I assume money + success in the league is Ty's goal. Not just money

 

[arthurdawg]

If Ty does come back, I'll be happy for him. I hope he wins up to his potential and Bama gets O-linemen and RBs and a scheme that wins, together.
I think Ty coming back will cost the program the services of Austin Mack or Russell, or both.
I do wish I could go back to August 2023 and use a crystal ball to show Coach Saban what 2023 and 2024 look like if he did not designate Ty as the starter.

Yes... Ty was not as ready, but we could have played more game managing and worked the rushing game. Our defense in 2023 was fairly salty for such a strategy. Unfortunately, Milroe's ceiling for flashy plays was high, but his managing of the game was very low.

I really feel we have missed out on a bunch of good talent since 2020 in terms of maximizing it.

 

[RollTide-YNWA]

With these guys making millions in college I would think more decisions would be made outside of the thought of money when deciding whether to come back for another year or go. Look at Ty, he's already a millionaire and if he came back next season he'd be paid more millions. So knowing if everything ended right there he'd be comfortably set for the rest of his life even if he never suited up in the NFL. So being in that position, I would think players like Ty would make the decision on whether to come back or stay based on things like "Do I need another year to develop my game?" not "more money".

Not saying I disagree, but for almost every one of these players, their lifelong dream is to make it to the NFL. Once that is placed in front of them, especially if their name is going to be called on the first day, it's tough to turn down.

 

[RollTide-YNWA]

This is true but stars make way more money on their 2nd contract. Especially QBs. So if coming back increases his odds of a big 2nd contract then it would be worth it.

I get that, but I don't know how many players are coming back to college because of their second pro contract. They're thinking of getting drafted as highly as possible, and if Ty can get drafted highly, I don't know that he stays.

 

[arthurdawg]

I get that, but I don't know how many players are coming back to college because of their second pro contract. They're thinking of getting drafted as highly as possible, and if Ty can get drafted highly, I don't know that he stays.

If he gets top half of the first round rankings and vibes... Needs to make the jump for sure. Probably so if just first round.

Next year is reportedly a tougher class and no guarantee he will improve his stock.

 

[colbysullivan]

Read the post again and take a breath. I said thats what I would tell my kid to do if the current momentum holds. There is an emerging pattern that could mean a loss of draft stock. He should do what’s best for him was the general thought. If he rebounds to his early form I think he goes in the draft and early.

The emerging pattern is his OL sucks. Ty is the main reason our offense has done as well as it has this year.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I get that, but I don't know how many players are coming back to college because of their second pro contract. They're thinking of getting drafted as highly as possible, and if Ty can get drafted highly, I don't know that he stays.

I don't think the 2nd contract is the motivator. I think having a successful career is. The bigger 2nd contract just helps make up for the potential loss of money for staying in college an extra year.

 

[BamaMoon]

I can’t think of a QB that could have a better support system in place than Ty to make such a critical decision.

Great point. While his family isn't into the big time of coaching salaries, Jason Simpson's base pay is $269K at UT Martin. He probably has some incentives that pay him more, but the point is the family is solidly, financially sound. So much that Ty was able to arrange a jet to pick his dad up to fly him to T-town for a recent game. Ty's NIL value is just shy of 1 million this year.

Point being, as you suggest, if he decides to stay OR go, it'll be for all the right reasons, most likely.

 

[BamaMoon]

Ty waited patiently for quite a while at Bama. There is a lot of tape on him and he knows how to play the position for winning football. He will play well the rest of the season and, regardless of our fate, he will enter the draft and get paid. No sense in coming back. Too many examples of guys stock dropping like a rock after making a similar mistake to come back.

I thought the discussion centered on the idea that Ty is a first-round pick.

I know no one can know what will happen if you declare for the draft, BUT no one can know what another season might hold. What if he doesn't play as well OR if he gets hurt?

The point is, if the $$$ seems like a sure thing, it's hard not to take it while it's available. Bird in the hand....you know.

BUT, I'll admit I'm more concerned with the discussion based on what's best for Alabama.

That's an even more difficult thing to predict. Is it better to have Ty back OR move on to Russell? There are a lot of things that we could explore on the pros (no pun intended) and cons of what might be best in the best interests of Alabama football.

 

[cdub55]

One thing that has not been discussed is this...

Alabama is the most talked about and (in)famous college football program in the country. It gets more eyes on it than any other team. Playing at Alabama and winning national championships help make a player, especially a quarterback, very marketable and exponentially increases their "brand" and clout. This can not only help an individual if they have aspirations to play in the NFL, but also for life after football. Greg McElroy is a great example. He was not talented enough to play in the NFL but has spring boarded his career through playing for Alabama and the notoriety, connections, and opportunities it can give you if done correctly. If Ty goes into the NFL draft, he will get much less TV time than if he was returning as the QB at Alabama. It is hard to weigh in this with definitive and accurate numbers, but in today's world of social media, self promotion, and marketing it must be something that a savvy athlete thinks about.

 

[dvldog]

His decision of course. As a fan I’ll be happy for him either way. RTR!

 

[CaliforniaTide]

Setting aside team/system fit and the learning curve, the metric that seems to separate modern successful QBs versus the hyped QBs coming out of college is number of snaps in college. The more snaps a QB plays = the higher likelihood he will perform better in the NFL. I think Ty has the processing, decision-making, accuracy to be successful, but I doubt he has the experience to be successful, even as a backup. Clearly, none of those factors have convinced an NFL owner + GM + coach from drafting a new QB, and if they offer Ty some large contract, it would be hard to turn it down.

If Ty came back, I don't know how that affects the QB room. My guess is that Mack may transfer out first. Who knows.

 

[editder]

Setting aside team/system fit and the learning curve, the metric that seems to separate modern successful QBs versus the hyped QBs coming out of college is number of snaps in college. The more snaps a QB plays = the higher likelihood he will perform better in the NFL. I think Ty has the processing, decision-making, accuracy to be successful, but I doubt he has the experience to be successful, even as a backup. Clearly, none of those factors have convinced an NFL owner + GM + coach from drafting a new QB, and if they offer Ty some large contract, it would be hard to turn it down.

If Ty came back, I don't know how that affects the QB room. My guess is that Mack may transfer out first. Who knows.

If Ty comes back, Russell is probably gone. If so, Mack may stay in hopes of being the guy in 2027, which would be his last year of eligibility.

If Russell stays and jumps Mack on the depth chart, regardless of whether Ty stays or leaves, then Mack is probably gone because barring injury to Russell, Mack can’t outlast him.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

One thing that has not been discussed is this...

Alabama is the most talked about and (in)famous college football program in the country. It gets more eyes on it than any other team. Playing at Alabama and winning national championships help make a player, especially a quarterback, very marketable and exponentially increases their "brand" and clout. This can not only help an individual if they have aspirations to play in the NFL, but also for life after football. Greg McElroy is a great example. He was not talented enough to play in the NFL but has spring boarded his career through playing for Alabama and the notoriety, connections, and opportunities it can give you if done correctly. If Ty goes into the NFL draft, he will get much less TV time than if he was returning as the QB at Alabama. It is hard to weigh in this with definitive and accurate numbers, but in today's world of social media, self promotion, and marketing it must be something that a savvy athlete thinks about.

Great post, Cdub!

Too bad that most athletes (and their handlers) are not business savvy and can't look past that instant money NOW...