Auburn: We have never beaten Auburn in JH when they enter the game with 8+ wins

[Power Eye]

I was going through the SEC schedules and projecting each team's record for the year. When I was doing Alabama and Auburn's projected record, I had Auburn at a record of 7-4 going into the game. I started wondering when the last time we beat Auburn in JH when they've had 7 or more wins entering the game, and we have a few, but we have never beaten them in JH when they enter the game with 8+ wins. While there are only 7 seasons for Auburn that meet this criteria (89, 93, 97, 05, 13, 17 and 19) we've lost all those games.

I don't anticipate Auburn getting to 8 wins before we play them, but it was just a reminder of how dangerous that game will be if Auburn does improve this year. As an aside, we haven't beaten an Auburn team that won 9 games in a season since 94.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Statistics lie. SNASS

 

[rolltide_21]

Good thing they rarely have 8+ wins.

 

[lowend]

1989 we went 10-2, tied 1st in the conference, lost the Sugar Bowl; Auburn went 10-2, won the Hall of Fame Bowl

1993 we went 9-3-1 on the field and won the Gator Bowl, Auburn was undefeated but was on probation and didn't play in a bowl

1997 we went 4-7, Auburn went 10-3 and won the Peach Bowl

2005 we went 10-2 and won the Cotton Bowl, Auburn went 9-3 and lost the Capital One Bowl

2013 we went 11-2 and lost the Sugar Bowl, Auburn went 12-2 and lost the BCS championship game

2017 we went 13-1 and were National Champions, Auburn went 10-4 and lost the Peach Bowl

2019 we went 11-2 and won the Citrus Bowl, Auburn went 9-4 and lost the Outback Bowl.

My conclusion is that voodoo and Pat Dye's pants are solely responsible for those victories.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Awbern could put on clinics for stealing signals...just saying.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I started wondering when the last time we beat Auburn in JH when they've had 7 or more wins entering the game, and we have a few, but we have never beaten them in JH when they enter the game with 8+ wins.

I mean, this is all true, but what exactly does it mean?

8 wins back in 1989 (during an 11-game regular season) is not exactly the same as 8 wins in a 12-game season. Plus, it's kind of hard to go with this one way or the other simply because the game was not played Jordan-Hare prior to 1989.

The criteria are very carefully chosen:
- Auburn has 8 wins entering the game (as if 8 wins means "you're good" but 7 doesn't....)
- the game has to be at JHS

But what is being said without actually being said? This is some sort of back door way of saying, "Alabama has never beaten Auburn at JHS when Auburn was good." Rest assured, the moment it happens (and it will), we will be told about how we've never beaten a 9-win team at JHS.

1989 - I know it sickens folks here but Auburn was the better team that year.

1993 - see 1989.

1997 - see 1989.

2005 - see 1989.

2013 - ok, you get one.

2017 - they forget we had that close call with MSU the previous SEC game, don't they?

2019 - ah yes, the old extra time out game...yeah, whatever...

Four of those seven games Auburn would probably have won in Tuscaloosa.

How many times has Auburn won "only" seven games because they lost the Iron Bowl?

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think Auburn in 2017 was a case of the better team NOT playing to their ability while the lesser team was playing well above theirs. Don't get me wrong, I can't just dismiss Auburn as some sort of cosmetic fluke. They DID beat both Alabama AND Georgia reasonably easily, so let's not write it totally off as luck. And pro-Crimson shanalysts would tell us all that "Auburn should have beaten LSU, they fall apart only in the final three minutes, it was on the road" - if it had been Alabama.

Auburn killed MSU, we needed a comeback.
We sandblasted Ole Miss, they routed them but not by nearly as much.
They collapsed against LSU, we beat LSU but didn't really look all that good doing it.
We mauled Mercer, they scraped by Mercer.
We both beat Arky by 32 points.
They blasted aTm, we struggled but won.

While common opponents is usually not a good argument (too many variables), if there's a consistent theme (say one team blows out the same team another barely beats) it can point in one direction. No such thing here.

But no "voodoo" happened in 2017 at Auburn. We can whine that "Saban should have gone to Tua" all we want, but Tua ain't the one who gave up the 408 yards to Auburn's offense, either. (And anyone wanting to go "but injuries" better be willing to give Auburn the same doubt for their UGA rematch). For whatever reason, we got outplayed.

As far as 2019, I'd remind everyone we put up 45 points with a backup QB in his first SEC start. That came down to bad officiating and a Pick Six that just defied all logic.

The only time I can say FOR SURE that a lesser Auburn team beat Alabama was in 2013. The first four Auburn was indisputably better and the last two are debatable. I don't think they were better than us in 2017, but they did outplay us on game day.

What this whole "8-win" argument is trying to come out and say - without really saying - is "Alabama can't beat Auburn on the road when both teams are good." The very objection has its roots in the Little Brother mentality.

And I reiterate: if the 8-win argument counts, so does "entered the game with 7 wins and failed to win the 8th game."

 

[arthurdawg]

Off the cuff and without reviewing data... Our defense struggled with the Gus Bus at times in those later games... And agree with the earlier thought that our 1989 and 2005 teams were both mirages and inferior to Auburn. Mostly because our OL and DL were not up to snuff and they whupped us on the lines. That was a constant under Dye and Tubbs - strong DL and OL.

 

[Power Eye]

What this whole "8-win" argument is trying to come out and say - without really saying - is "Alabama can't beat Auburn on the road when both teams are good." The very objection has its roots in the Little Brother mentality.

That's not at all what I am saying, at least not that we "can't" beat Auburn in JH, but that we haven't when they have a really good team. Obviously, teams have won in JH in years they have really good teams, so it can be done and there is no reason we can't as well.

Each game can be individually explained, which you have done, whether it's injuries, flukes or Auburn just being simply better, but the fact is we haven't won there when they enter the game with 8 wins, and that's not an arbitrary number. I think it's a pretty solid indicator that you have a really good team to have 8 wins entering the final game of the regular season, particularly for an SEC team, regardless of whether it was under an 11 or 12 game schedule.

The original post was simply an observation based on how I think each teams' schedule plays out this year, and the fact that I think both teams have a chance to enter that game with playoff hopes alive, albeit most likely remote in Auburn's case. I do think Auburn has a chance to be good this year, but they may implode, who knows. The first half of their schedule is tougher than the second and they seem like they might be a fragile team.

 

[Cruiser]

I don't expect we will beat them with 8 or more wins again this year

 

[MikeInBama]

I'll just leave this here:

 

[MikeInBama]

I don't expect we will beat them with 8 or more wins again this year

Could be wrong but I only see these wins before the iron bowl and I'm being generous:

@Baylor
Ball State
South Alabama
@Arkansas
Kentucky
@Vanderbilt
Mercer

 

[Cruiser]

Could be wrong but I only see these wins before the iron bowl and I'm being generous:

@Baylor
Ball State
South Alabama
@Arkansas
Kentucky
@Vanderbilt
Mercer

Exactly; though I believe Baylor will get them

 

[Bamabuzzard]

I was going through the SEC schedules and projecting each team's record for the year. When I was doing Alabama and Auburn's projected record, I had Auburn at a record of 7-4 going into the game. I started wondering when the last time we beat Auburn in JH when they've had 7 or more wins entering the game, and we have a few, but we have never beaten them in JH when they enter the game with 8+ wins. While there are only 7 seasons for Auburn that meet this criteria (89, 93, 97, 05, 13, 17 and 19) we've lost all those games.

I don't anticipate Auburn getting to 8 wins before we play them, but it was just a reminder of how dangerous that game will be if Auburn does improve this year. As an aside, we haven't beaten an Auburn team that won 9 games in a season since 94.

I think @selmaborntidefan discussed this several years ago. "They" talk bout the rivalry and the "throw records out the window" when we play. But ultimately, the better team (record-wise) normally wins. Yes, there are upsets, but not as many as we think.

 

[RammerJammer14]

I'll just leave this here:
View attachment 51788

And that’s why Tommy is a Senator lol

 

[Bodietide]

Crazy voodoo on the pasture. Crazy things happen, home cooking with I’ll-timed penalties, turnovers, anything bad that can happen will happen in that cesspool.

 

[PGDocBama]

I think Auburn in 2017 was a case of the better team NOT playing to their ability while the lesser team was playing well above theirs. ...

Very good analysis.

2017 Auburn was a better team than most give them credit for (since they lost to UGA in the SECCG and to a very good UCF team).

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think @selmaborntidefan discussed this several years ago. "They" talk bout the rivalry and the "throw records out the window" when we play. But ultimately, the better team (record-wise) normally wins. Yes, there are upsets, but not as many as we think.

Seriously, the only REAL upset in the series was in 1984. I understand there was a PERCEPTION of upset in 1972, 2001, 2002, and 2013, but the reality is that the teams that won those games had records as good (or better) than the teams that LOST those games.

I know 1972 is a thorn in our side, but Auburn wound up with a BETTER RECORD than we did, and a higher ranking in the AP poll. Yes, statistically we thumped them pretty good, but the fact is that it's not like lightning striking twice in a matter of moments changed the fact 1972 Auburn was a good team.

Likewise, in 2001, both teams ended the year with 7-5 records, although Auburn finished ahead of us in the SEC standings because we had one more in conference loss. As much as 2002 sticks in our craw, the fact is that a 9-4 Auburn beat a 10-3 Alabama, which hardly constitutes a colossal upset.

And look a little closer in 2002:

- both of us beat LSU by scoring 31 points (31-0 for us, 31-7 for them)
- both of us lost narrowly to UGA at home (2 points for us, 3 for them)
- they beat MSU and Vandy by a good bit more than we did
- the odd duck is they got clobbered by Arky while we did the clobbering of the Hawgs
- they got juked by 11-2 USC (with the Heisman winner) and we got juked by 12-2 OU

Everybody fixated on "Alabama barely lost to OU and UGA" and "Arky clobbered Auburn" but their analysis went no further. That's not to absolve fRan for the worst prepared team I've ever seen in my Alabama watching life, it looked like DuBose prepped them for the 2000 MSU game. But we didn't lose to a team 1/2 as good.

The only REAL upset in this series in the TV era has been 1984, and it only happened because Pat Dye outsmarted himself. Granted, there were some close call upsets like in 1997 and 2009 but they never came to pass.


The Iron Bowl - where the better team is pretty much going to win every time.

 

[bamagradinATL]

Crazy voodoo on the pasture. Crazy things happen, home cooking with I’ll-timed penalties, turnovers, anything bad that can happen will happen in that cesspool.

One more, a wet playing surface when there was no rainfall the week prior.

 

[Tidewater]

All I can say is the Red Elephant Club has some work to do before November..