To me - and this is just my opinion - it sounds like there is some ego, or maybe just life goals, at play here.
To me, being a late first round would be ideal for him because he's more than likely going into a better situation as far as overall team talent is concerned. He would still make really good (just not top 10 good) money and most likely be in a situation where he wouldn't necessarily be pressed to start his first season.
But . . . if your ego - or maybe even life goals- is driving towards being a top pick, then the narrative is obviously different. I think if I were going to stay at Bama for another year, a LOV policy has got to be part of the package.
Tough decision for him; but he seems to have a good head on his shoulders and a family that supports him in the right way. I'm happy for him either way.