Bama getting no respect

[KrAzY3]

Who knows… Yes, no, maybe…

I think we all know the answer is probably.

Who was going to beat Alabama that Alabama didn't already beat? Missouri or Florida?

I'd happily trade playing those two for Texas and LSU (who beat Missouri).

 

[CajunCrimson]

Who knows… Yes, no, maybe…

No one wants to argue with a moving target. You seem to be all knowing until someone asks a question you don’t want to answer.

i struggle with these types of posts. I’m out for the night. No patience to deal with trolling posts.

 

[81usaf92]

I think we all know the answer is probably.

Who was going to beat Alabama that Alabama didn't already beat? Missouri or Florida?

I'd happily trade playing those two for Texas and LSU (who beat Missouri).

We probably do, but again do we really know? Alot of our growth only happened after adversity, and it’s just as likely that we trip up vs Auburn early in the season and have a dog fight at Neyland late in the season as it is that we go 12-0 waltzing to the finish line with one of the worst SOS.

 

[BigAlinKnoxville]

...the Tide lost at home by double digits...

This phrase has become a pet peeve of mine. I'm not directing this at you and it's also technically correct, but it's almost like it's designed to make the Texas loss sound worse than it was. Sure, 10 points means "double digits," but just barely. So is 99.

 

[The Ols]

I still can’t believe Alabama escaped in the Iron Bowl. An absolute debacle.

The fact remains that Alabama could easily have 2 perhaps 3 losses right now.

Ending Georgia’s streak in Atlanta and going to the Fiesta Bowl would be a stellar end to the year.

I personally don’t think Alabama has the horses to pull another 2021 out of their hat. I seriously hope I’m wrong.

The night the Tide lost at home by double digits is precisely when they lost control of their own destiny.

remember, Nick has gone unbeaten only twice. Twice in 17 years…..

That ought to get folks fired up!!! Legit…having a hard time not…mooooing…

 

[Power Eye]

Here’s why I’m not too concerned about today’s rankings. First, UGA remaining at #1 is huge for us if we beat them. Second, and Josh Pate brought this up, Oregon’s ranking seems to have the assumption they beat Washington already baked into it, and our ranking seems to have the assumption we will lose to UGA. Therefore, a win for us Saturday is going to be seismic in its impact on the final rankings and the committee’s thinking. Does it guarantee we get in? No, but I don’t think it’s a for certain that Oregon gets in ahead of us with a win.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

An ESPN guy using ESPN "computer polls" for the narrative. Surprising.

His straight computer numbers based on the FPI and Eff metrics though has us at #6.

I posted somewhere the other day that we were #6 based on those before last weeks games.

The computer metrics don't like Wash as much as the others and doesn't care about Texas having the HtH vs Bama.

We probably would be #6 or #7 if the committee wasn't allowed to see a teams name when looking at the resumes.

 

[B1GTide]

Who knows… Yes, no, maybe…

No, we can with a fair degree of confidence, say that Alabama would be undefeated headed into this game if you played Georgia's schedule.

However, you would still have to beat them this week to get in.

 

[B1GTide]

Just beat Georgia

 

[KrAzY3]

After thinking about it a bit, the worst I can see Alabama being ranked if they beat Georgia is 5. If Alabama was 7th, ahead of either Oregon or Texas, I think the path would be entirely clear.

First, the committee's infatuation with Oregon really hurts Ohio State. They could have made the case that Ohio State was the top one loss team, but they put Oregon ahead of them. In doing so, Ohio State becomes very vulnerable under the exact same scenario they got into the playoffs on before.

Next, the loser of the Washington and Oregon game has to drop below Alabama if Alabama wins. These teams are 3 and 5 respectively, if Ohio State goes from 2 to 6 after losing to a higher ranked Michigan team, well you do the math.

Finally, and these all do work in conjunction, a win over Georgia drops them below Alabama due to the very same head-to-head outcome that's keeping Texas ahead of Alabama (plus the conference championship cherry on top).

So basically, as bad as the committee has been, they've set things up in such a way that Alabama kind of has to move past certain teams. Of course they could just be bigger hypocrites, but explaining their position would be impossible under those circumstances.

This means if Alabama beats Georgia they first jump the loser of Oregon and Washington, then they jump Ohio State, then they jump Georgia and land at least at 5. Now, one lingering question then becomes what to do with FSU? Do they under that scenario become #2 if Oregon wins? Is the argument really that they're the #2 team? On the other hand if they move FSU below any one loss team, that's the argument for keeping them ahead of Texas and Alabama?

So even ignoring the Alabama/Texas/Oregon debate, ignoring the possibility of any other upsets, I don't see how the committee keeps an Alabama team that wins below 5.

 

[B1GTide]

The CFP shill last night made one thing crystal clear - if Texas and Alabama both win, Texas will be ranked higher. He said, head to head is head to head, no matter when in the season it happened. He is saying that he does not care that Alabama is significantly better now than they were then. Texas gets the nod. So a win over Georgia will not change that.

 

[Cruloc]

The CFP shill last night made one thing crystal clear - if Texas and Alabama both win, Texas will be ranked higher. He said, head to head is head to head, no matter when in the season it happened. He is saying that he does not care that Alabama is significantly better now than they were then. Texas gets the nod. So a win over Georgia will not change that.

Yep, which still has me saying, even with a win, we don't get in....unless FSU loses. If FSU wins, we will at best be #5.

1. Michigan
2. Oregon
3. Texas
4. Bama

Main thing right now.....beat Georgia and make the committee show their cards.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

After thinking about it a bit, the worst I can see Alabama being ranked if they beat Georgia is 5. If Alabama was 7th, ahead of either Oregon or Texas, I think the path would be entirely clear.

First, the committee's infatuation with Oregon really hurts Ohio State. They could have made the case that Ohio State was the top one loss team, but they put Oregon ahead of them. In doing so, Ohio State becomes very vulnerable under the exact same scenario they got into the playoffs on before.

Next, the loser of the Washington and Oregon game has to drop below Alabama if Alabama wins. These teams are 3 and 5 respectively, if Ohio State goes from 2 to 6 after losing to a higher ranked Michigan team, well you do the math.

Finally, and these all do work in conjunction, a win over Georgia drops them below Alabama due to the very same head-to-head outcome that's keeping Texas ahead of Alabama (plus the conference championship cherry on top).

So basically, as bad as the committee has been, they've set things up in such a way that Alabama kind of has to move past certain teams. Of course they could just be bigger hypocrites, but explaining their position would be impossible under those circumstances.

This means if Alabama beats Georgia they first jump the loser of Oregon and Washington, then they jump Ohio State, then they jump Georgia and land at least at 5. Now, one lingering question then becomes what to do with FSU? Do they under that scenario become #2 if Oregon wins? Is the argument really that they're the #2 team? On the other hand if they move FSU below any one loss team, that's the argument for keeping them ahead of Texas and Alabama?

So even ignoring the Alabama/Texas/Oregon debate, ignoring the possibility of any other upsets, I don't see how the committee keeps an Alabama team that wins below 5.

Correct.

If we beat UGA and everything else goes chalk then Alabama will be #5

That's why we need either FSU or Texas to lose to move to #4

Mich 100% has a spot because they ain't losing to Iowa

Wash/Ore winner 100% has a spot

Texas and FSU both have spots if they beat Okie St and UL respectively but there is a chance they could lose.

If Bama beats UGA though we WILL jump UGA, tOSU, and the Ore/Wash loser at the least.

 

[81usaf92]

No, we can with a fair degree of confidence, say that Alabama would be undefeated headed into this game if you played Georgia's schedule.

However, you would still have to beat them this week to get in.

But that really wasn’t the point to that remark. Someone wanted to change the context of what was actually being said to try to make an over emotional point. The point was that we make all the excuses in the world for why we REALLY lost such as a young team, refs, and injuries but we don’t want to accept that the team we are playing had to go through those same struggles. And this is coming from someone who absolutely hates Georgia.

It’s like as @crimsonaudio , to the person I was responding to, said we were underprepared for a good Texas team and were underprepared for USF, Ole Miss, and Arkansas and lost faith in the voters. It’s why in the AP we went from #7 after Texas to #11 after USF. It gave everyone the perception that Alabama wasn’t done losing for the year, and was the perception that carried into the committee voting as well.

Since I seem to have to answer this again… Yes we are probably undefeated with Georgia’s schedule but that schedule also includes an early trip to JHS and a late trip to Rocky Top. So do we instead have our Texas moment on the road vs Auburn in October or do we steamroll through? I mean how many times have you witnessed Ohio St having a joke schedule and bring a young team into Purdue or Iowa City and all hell break lose?

 

[AlexanderFan]

Flip side - Bama wants in? Don't lose by 10 at home.

Texas looked far more prepared than Bama. No excuses.

Swap quarterbacks, does Bama win? Third game starting versus a full year.

 

[Cruloc]

This committee will relish leaving the SEC out. It will be a point of pride for them that the last 4 team playoff had no SEC team. You can't convince me otherwise.

Washington and FSU, if they get in.....will get blown out. But....they are "deserving" if they are undefeated. Their SOS doesn't matter. Power 5, undefeated gets in.

Oregon passes this committee's eye test.

Texas has the head-to-head over Bama.

Would be funny though......if somehow Michigan just laid an egg and lost to Iowa. I'd pay to see that.

 

[Cruloc]

But that really wasn’t the point to that remark. Someone wanted to change the context of what was actually being said to try to make an over emotional point. The point was that we make all the excuses in the world for why we REALLY lost such as a young team, refs, and injuries but we don’t want to accept that the team we are playing had to go through those same struggles. And this is coming from someone who absolutely hates Georgia.

It’s like as @crimsonaudio , to the person I was responding to, said we were underprepared for a good Texas team and were underprepared for USF, Ole Miss, and Arkansas and lost faith in the voters. It’s why in the AP we went from #7 after Texas to #11 after USF. It gave everyone the perception that Alabama wasn’t done losing for the year, and was the perception that carried into the committee voting as well.

Since I seem to have to answer this again… Yes we are probably undefeated with Georgia’s schedule but that schedule also includes an early trip to JHS and a late trip to Rocky Top. So do we instead have our Texas moment on the road vs Auburn in October or do we steamroll through? I mean how many times have you witnessed Ohio St having a joke schedule and bring a young team into Purdue or Iowa City and all hell break lose?

I think you just compared road games at Tennessee and Auburn to road games at Purdue and Iowa. Interesting.

 

[KrAzY3]

Flip side - Bama wants in? Don't lose by 10 at home.

Texas looked far more prepared than Bama. No excuses.

While a valid point, this is where context matters.

First, this is why Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, etc... had it so easy because they didn't have an early season test like that. Heck, Oregon also lost but that doesn't count because reasons.

Secondly and this is a very big point in my opinion. Alabama was replacing their OC, their DC, and their QB. What other contender had to play that sort of a game under those circumstances? Things could have gone the other way like they did with Clemson, so while it was a loss and loss counts, it was also under very adverse circumstances.

That's why we need either FSU or Texas to lose to move to #4

Mich 100% has a spot because they ain't losing to Iowa

If I was to put money on it, I would bet that either FSU, Texas, or Michigan would lose. Not on any particular game mind you, but they are all playing top 20 teams. We've seen a lot of upsets on those games in the past.

Also, it's not out of the realm of possibility that margin of victory enter the discussion. The committee did use the word "dominating", so the domination or lack thereof could come into play. If FSU struggles, if Texas struggles, or if somehow Alabama looks great, that could move the needle to. Having said that, it sure sounds like the committee is basically going with every argument they can imagine to keep Alabama out. Head to head matters (but didn't matter when Oklahoma beat Texas). Dominating matters (but not when Alabama dominates).

Edit: Finally, another thing to watch will be the polls. The committee has mostly followed the polls and then tried to justify the move. If Alabama gets moved up ahead of Texas and/or Oregon (things are very tight in the polls, Oregon is closer to Alabama than to the team ahead of them), then watching the committee justify their moves could be interesting.

 

[81usaf92]

I think you just compared road games at Tennessee and Auburn to road games at Purdue and Iowa. Interesting.

No i didn’t. I was comparing how easy schedules with young talented teams are not easy 12-0 seasons. B1G is a Buckeye fan first so I was trying to give some relation to his team in what I was saying.

 

[B1GTide]

While a valid point, this is where context matters.

First, this is why Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, etc... had it so easy because they didn't have an early season test like that. Heck, Oregon also lost but that doesn't count because reasons.

Secondly and this is a very big point in my opinion. Alabama was replacing their OC, their DC, and their QB. What other contender had to play that sort of a game under those circumstances? Things could have gone the other way like they did with Clemson, so while it was a loss and loss counts, it was also under very adverse circumstances.

If I was to put money on it, I would bet that either FSU, Texas, or Michigan would lose. Not on any particular game mind you, but they are all playing top 20 teams. We've seen a lot of upsets on those games in the past.

Also, it's not out of the realm of possibility that margin of victory enter the discussion. The committee did use the word "dominating", so the domination or lack thereof could come into play. If FSU struggles, if Texas struggles, or if somehow Alabama looks great, that could move the needle to. Having said that, it sure sounds like the committee is basically going with every argument they can imagine to keep Alabama out. Head to head matters (but didn't matter when Oklahoma beat Texas). Dominating matters (but not when Alabama dominates).

Edit: Finally, another thing to watch will be the polls. The committee has mostly followed the polls and then tried to justify the move. If Alabama gets moved up ahead of Texas and/or Oregon (things are very tight in the polls, Oregon is closer to Alabama than to the team ahead of them), then watching the committee justify their moves could be interesting.

Any other year I would also bet that one of those teams will lose this weekend. Not this year.