Greetings. I joined this board because the debate on the fate of FSU is profound to me. This is my take. The NFL league is the fairest most competitive league in the world. It is wildly successful because a small city like Green Bay has as good a chance to win the Super Bowl as any New York or LA franchise. Three guys can't get together and decide to play together in Miami Beach and win a championship.
College football is almost as popular despite being completely unfair. For any given season, it is well known in September that the vast majority of teams have no chance to compete for a championship. Yet for some strange reason that is also unique to the world, tens of thousands of fans will attend, and millions will watch on TV a couple teams that have no hope to compete for the big prize. Even the big teams with the most competitive schedules are rarely pushed. Why are college football fans such fools? Do we enjoy watching one sided outcomes? Do we enjoy watching a game that is pointless? Or is it because we can dream?
There appears to be something about the college game that appeals to people. This includes its structure and the fact that there are conferences. Could it be that all fans of the non-blueblood's dream of their chance? The current four team system history is strewn with teams that are clearly not one of the four best in college football. I will throw some scores from each year. Oregon 59 FSU 20, Alabama 38 MSU 0, Clemson 31 OSU 0, etc. It's pretty darn clear that the four best teams have never been picked. It is not even close. Walk scores. Why was this done until now?
In my opinion college football is an illusion. Because of the money, the game is trending towards NFL minor league. The question for me is will college football survive? Part of this illusion in my opinion is that if a team in a major conference ran the table, it was in. We have always allowed also rans to dream, even if there was no chance. By changing the rules, this illusion is shattered. If you can't beat them, join them. The ACC and Big12 are irrelevant. So are all of the other conferences. 12 teams will not change it. Most of the positions will be SEC or Big10. Dare I relabel them NFL and AFL, soon to be NFC and AFC?
When does a "Premier League" system begin where the 20 best schools that have a chance in September are all in one league? You have two conferences and a Super Bowl. That means every game is competitive and fierce. Injuries will pile up just like in the NFL because the players will have to play 70 snaps a week. They will be paid a salary and be employees of the university. Perhaps they will not even have to attend class. Most of them don't already as its all online. Are we going to want to watch this future product when what we see on Saturday is so close to what we see on Sunday?
Why is this happening now? My speculation is NIL and transfer rules threw a monkey wrench into the system. The concentration of football talent guaranteed that there were always going to be one or two ultra dominant SEC teams. This is the most diluted I have ever seen it. The age of Tua, Hurts, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, DeVonta Smith, Ruggs, Calvin Ridley, and Jerry Jeudy being on one team are over. The best teams are still the best. But 2017 Texas would never be close to an Alabama even if Texas was very good.
The illusion worked quite well, and it was no big deal to offer false hope to a couple chumps. But now everything is muddled, and the teams are closer in talent. Jordan Travis is a marginal NFL prospect, perhaps a 6th round choice. I would argue that Keon Coleman who is a 1st round draft pick could catch jump balls from a backup QB, aka sort of like what Michael Thomas did to Alabama. Those 1st and 2nd day NFL picks on defense who throttled LSU can do the rest. I saw Philidelphia win a Super Bowl with a backup QB. I saw Urban Meyers most talented teams taken down by a backup QB in Columbus. And we take the words of a bunch administrators that they know football. We want to be like China and pick our winners. No surprises for us.
What is done is done. What is worse to me is the illusions are being torn down. College football unlike the pro game is about dreams. There was never a chance. But now not even the dreams are possible. FSU was probably not the one of the four best teams. But when their dream was taken away, every other team and fan base with no prayer of a chance had their dreams taken away too. What happens when the collective football dreams wake up? Is it college football any longer?
1) The illusion was created by:
a) regional matchups that never ventured out of the region due to cost
b) many of the powers of that region rarely meeting on the field (Alabama and Ole Miss met on the field only twice between 1934 and 1965 - and one was a Sugar Bowl game being boycotted by non-Southern teams due to segregation. But this wasn't just a Southern thing since the Big Ten often played only eight games)
c) the only time powers met outside of a region was in a bowl game
2) The illusion was lengthened/sustained by:
a) segregation - back in the day, schedules were known for ten years out, so even if Coach Bryant had waved the nonexistent magic wand on the day Wallace stood in the schoolhouse door, Alabama still wouldn't have played some of the powers until AT LEAST 1973 or later.
b) the war between the Rose Bowl conferences and the non (the CFA), which prevented teams from playing each other because of potential litigation over which network got to show the games
c) a series of Independents winning national championships that created the illusion "any team can win the title"
Much of what had to be torn down had its roots in the 1980s and the perfect storm of national championship upsets that sustained an unexamined reality: conferences blocked teams from winning national championships:
1980 -
Georgia avoids the two other best teams in the SEC and wins a fluke title over N Dame*
1981 -
Clemson moves up when Pitt chokes then wins that one game against Nebraska
1982 - Independent
Penn State wins it when #1 UGA, #3 Nebraska, #4 SMU, and #5 UCLA are obligated to different bowls but Penn State can pick who they want to play.
1983 -
Miami pole vaults to #1 from #5 thanks to a fluke win over #1 Nebraska and the bowl obligations of #2 Texas, #3 Auburn, and #4 Illinois; in the BCS era, Nebraska would play Texas, and Miami wouldn't even make the CFP in a vote, either.
1984 -
BYU plays nobody and wins it all; nowadays they'd at least have two decent foes to beat.
1985 -
Oklahoma wins only because they're ranked ahead of a Miam team that trounced them in Norman (27-14); nowadays, they have to beat Miami in a rematch. Probably.
1986 - two Independents with no bowl obligations meet and
Penn State survives.
1987 -
Miami stays below radar and the hype surrounding the two Big 8 monsters enables them to set up a "winner is champion" against the winner of the Oklahoma-Nebraska semi-final
1988 -
Notre Dame gets to avoid six one-loss teams and face the weakest, who happens to be undefeated.
1989 -
Miami wins it when Notre Dame takes out #1 Colorado and three SEC teams (Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee) split the SEC title thanks to fratricide.
What happened in 1990?
Notre Dame signed a TV deal with NBC, splitting the CFA
That was in response to Penn State announcing they were headed to the Big Ten (late 1989)
The SEC - without N Dame - insisted on a larger portion of the revenue from any CFA TV deal or they were going to market themselves
The SEC also expanded by two teams to start in 1992
When the SEC told the SWC they wanted some teams from Texas AND took Arkansas...the SWC imploded and married the Big Eight in a shotgun wedding
What we have now was set up by teams making sure they had a seat when the music stopped playing, but it was always there. It's just when Auburn could upset Alabama in the 1989 Iron Bowl, teams got knocked out with no second chance and in many cases allowed lesser teams (ahem, 1990 Tech) to win it all.
* - not to pick on UGA in any way, but have you WATCHED that game? It was ND ineptitude that gave it away. Don't take it as me blaming UGA for the schedule, it was the system as it was.