To answer the question, I think there will be some convictions on lesser charges, but a hung jury on one or more major ones.
Reasoning is purely mathematical. It takes only one holdout among 12 jurors. Say only 10% of the jury pool are Trump supporters. So 90% aren't. The problem is that 90% to the 12th power is about 28%. Which means that there's a 72% chance of having a potential holdout.
Personally, I think he did what he's accused of doing. But it's not illegal to pay hush money. The illegality comes in the mis-representation of campaign finances -- by about $130K or so.
Here's a link to Open Secrets, a website that claims to present total campaign expenditures in 2020. It says that Trump spent about $1.1B and Biden roughly $1.6B. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but it's the best I could do on short notice, and for me at least, passes the smell test.
Summary data for Donald Trump, 2020 cycle • OpenSecrets
$130K is a hair over one one-hundredth of one percent (i.e., just over one ten-thousandth) of Trump's $1.1 Billion total spend.
I don't think any presidential campaign of any major party has 100% accurate disclosures. At the 10-figure level, with all the sources of revenue and destinations of that cash, it's simply impossible no matter how pure the intent.
Do we really want Billion-dollar financial disclosures examined at the 0.01% level of materiality, with criminal charges waiting for someone at the end of the audit?
Donald Trump is a horrible human being on so many levels. I do not support him and have not since he showed his true colors in 2017. I hope Earle is right on the conviction.
My criticism is that, of all his many illegal deeds, they chose this one to prosecute?
