JessN: Wisconsin wrap-up: DeBoer's first road win comes in relatively convincing fashion

[AlistarWills]

if someone can get access to a data set I will make sure it is analyzed

That is A LOT of film watching. But seriously, someone like the group that provides Oats his analytics could make a fortune off of college football. Frankly, basketball as well. We already know the basketball side knows tendencies of certain officials. See Alabama at agbarn when Pearl basically told his guys they could beat us up cause the set of refs there wasn’t going to call it.

 

[countrytider]

Jess, I actually expect Bama to be favored and beat Georgia in 2 weeks.. It's in Tuscaloosa and the place will be rocking!

We may win the game, but no way we will be favored.

UGA is a -3.5 favorite in Tuscaloosa. It opened at -4.5.

 

[BamaNation]

That is A LOT of film watching. But seriously, someone like the group that provides Oats his analytics could make a fortune off of college football. Frankly, basketball as well. We already know the basketball side knows tendencies of certain officials. See Alabama at agbarn when Pearl basically told his guys they could beat us up cause the set of refs there wasn’t going to call it.

Oh, it's out there. It's just is it available without mortgaging your house

That said, I may have found a source or two

 

[sanjosecrimson]

We may win the game, but no way we will be favored.

UGA is a -3.5 favorite in Tuscaloosa. It opened at -4.5.

the game is in two weeks. the spread will change again, and I still stand by Bama will be favor by game time

 

[Bill from NYC]

Jess thanks for a great post and I must say that your comment about Milroe not being a "presicion passer" did hit home.

I readily admit to being frustrated watching Milroe much of the time. The truth is, I am spoiled. Our last four quarterbacks were superstars. I think that our receivers are excellent, and would have much better numbers with any of the above mentioned four qbs.I also think that better passing would take defenders off of the line and even the RBs would benefit and produce more.

Milroe may not be a "precision passer" but he does need to be more accurate imo. I also think that if he decided sooner to take off, he might be comparable to Lamar Jackson as a runner.

My favorite part of college football is watching these kids develop. This Crimson Tide team is better than I expected. Milroe is a great kid and I am rooting for him.

ROLL TIDE 4EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[HMM]

Hate that Van Dyke tore his ACL and will be out for the year...

 

[Bill from NYC]

We may win the game, but no way we will be favored.

UGA is a -3.5 favorite in Tuscaloosa. It opened at -4.5.

It appears to have dropped to 2 1/2.

Georgia vs. Alabama football odds and betting trends | 9/28/2024

SEC foes match up when the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) and the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) square off on Saturday, September 28, 2024 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.In their most recent game, the Bu…

sportsbookwire.usatoday.com

 

[countrytider]

the game is in two weeks. the spread will change again, and I still stand by Bama will be favor by game time

Bama nor UGA plays anyone between now and then. I follow betting action quite a bit, and I promise you without any significant injury news involving Milroe or Beck, that line is not going to move 4 points.

Again, this is as of today: Sports Action network which tracks every major betting website:

Opened at UGA - 4.5, sitting on UGA - 3.5.

People over-react to one game (Bama 42 Wisconsin 10) (UGA 13 UK 12). Vegas does not.

Let me ask you this, before this weekends results did you expect Bama to be favored in the UGA game? Most likely not.

 

[countrytider]

It appears to have dropped to 2 1/2.

Georgia vs. Alabama football odds and betting trends | 9/28/2024

SEC foes match up when the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) and the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) square off on Saturday, September 28, 2024 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.In their most recent game, the Bu…

sportsbookwire.usatoday.com

m


99.9 % of all major sports books have the line sitting at UGA- 3.5.


Sports Action Network:

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Bama nor UGA plays anyone between now and then. I follow betting action quite a bit, and I promise you without any significant injury news involving Milroe or Beck, that line is not going to move 4 points.

Again, this is as of today: Sports Action network which tracks every major betting website:

Opened at UGA - 4.5, sitting on UGA - 3.5.

People over-react to one game (Bama 42 Wisconsin 10) (UGA 13 UK 12). Vegas does not.

Let me ask you this, before this weekends results did you expect Bama to be favored in the UGA game? Most likely not.

YES I expected Bama to be favored in the beginning of the season because we return a Heisman contender at QB and one of the best OL and RB game in the country. The game is in Tuscaloosa where beating the Tide is almost impossible to do even for a team of Georgia's caliber. And to add, Bama has UGA number more than any opponent they have played in the last 10 years. It's funny you mentioned that fans " overreact" over one game, but what else do we have to go on at this juncture of the season?? Any sensible person watching how Bama handle a solid opponent on the road in a hostile environment (early game to boot) vs. Georgia struggling against a team that was beaten badly a week before from one of the bottom dwellers in the SEC could see what team has the bigger upside in this matchup.

 

[CaliforniaTide]

Hate that Van Dyke tore his ACL and will be out for the year...

I'm still trying to figure out where it happened. I know he was tackled out of bounds by Alabama, but the replays I've seen don't show how he tore his ACL. Tough luck for him.

 

[CaliforniaTide]

Jess thanks for a great post and I must say that your comment about Milroe not being a "presicion passer" did hit home.

I readily admit to being frustrated watching Milroe much of the time. The truth is, I am spoiled. Our last four quarterbacks were superstars. I think that our receivers are excellent, and would have much better numbers with any of the above mentioned four qbs.I also think that better passing would take defenders off of the line and even the RBs would benefit and produce more.

Milroe may not be a "precision passer" but he does need to be more accurate imo. I also think that if he decided sooner to take off, he might be comparable to Lamar Jackson as a runner.

My favorite part of college football is watching these kids develop. This Crimson Tide team is better than I expected. Milroe is a great kid and I am rooting for him.

ROLL TIDE 4EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is who Milroe is. Maybe he can improve his accuracy over the course of the season, kinda like how Blake Sims improved his QB skills. Milroe is not the same QB that Tua, Mac, and Bryce were, and that's fine. He only needs to be good enough to lead the team, regardless of his skill translation to the NFL.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

YES I expected Bama to be favored in the beginning of the season because we return a Heisman contender at QB and one of the best OL and RB game in the country. The game is in Tuscaloosa where beating the Tide is almost impossible to do even for a team of Georgia's caliber. And to add, Bama has UGA number more than any opponent they have played in the last 10 years. It's funny you mentioned that fans " overreact" over one game, but what else do we have to go on at this juncture of the season?? Any sensible person watching how Bama handle a solid opponent on the road in a hostile environment (early game to boot) vs. Georgia struggling against a team that was beaten badly a week before from one of the bottom dwellers in the SEC could see what team has the bigger upside in this matchup.

To be fair, we struggled at west georgia last year before playing uga the following week...

 

[92tide]

I'm still trying to figure out where it happened. I know he was tackled out of bounds by Alabama, but the replays I've seen don't show how he tore his ACL. Tough luck for him.

it looked like the knee gave when he planted his leg just before getting hit

 

[countrytider]

YES I expected Bama to be favored in the beginning of the season because we return a Heisman contender at QB and one of the best OL and RB game in the country. The game is in Tuscaloosa where beating the Tide is almost impossible to do even for a team of Georgia's caliber. And to add, Bama has UGA number more than any opponent they have played in the last 10 years. It's funny you mentioned that fans " overreact" over one game, but what else do we have to go on at this juncture of the season?? Any sensible person watching how Bama handle a solid opponent on the road in a hostile environment (early game to boot) vs. Georgia struggling against a team that was beaten badly a week before from one of the bottom dwellers in the SEC could see what team has the bigger upside in this matchup.

As a Bama fan I appreciate your optimism. I think we have more than fair shot of straight up winning the game.

That’s not how Vegas spreads work though. UGA is still the program that’s won 2 out of the last 3 championships. They’re still the more established program with Kirby Smart going into his 9th season compared to DeBoer’s first at Bama. They’re returning a pretty good QB and Heisman contender himself (Beck).

I mean surely you can see why they’re slightly favored even in Tuscaloosa.

The spread is at UGA -3 now so it’s moving Bama’s way. It’s still not going to move a complete 3 - 4 points in order for Bama to be “favored”.

Roll Tide my friend.

 

[PattheCatinSaudi]

As a Bama fan I appreciate your optimism. I think we have more than fair shot of straight up winning the game.

That’s not how Vegas spreads work though. UGA is still the program that’s won 2 out of the last 3 championships. They’re still the more established program with Kirby Smart going into his 9th season compared to DeBoer’s first at Bama. They’re returning a pretty good QB and Heisman contender himself (Beck).

I mean surely you can see why they’re slightly favored even in Tuscaloosa.

The spread is at UGA -3 now so it’s moving Bama’s way. It’s still not going to move a complete 3 - 4 points in order for Bama to be “favored”.

Roll Tide my friend.

It will move more than 3-4 points if money starts loading up on Bama.

 

[countrytider]

It will move more than 3-4 points if money starts loading up on Bama.

They typically get these spreads very close. It’s very rare to see a line change that much without major injury news.