Do we benefit if Tennessee makes the championship game?

[dathbama]

Yes, I know - we want Tennessee to lose every game! But if we win out and make the championship game and then lose, would that not put us out of the playoffs? Who do we want to win the Georgia-Tennessee game?

Obviously this is not a matter of what we choose, as we simply must win the rest of our games. What scenario in our best interest? Would it be better simply to avoid the extra game in regular season and have more time to prepare of the playoff?

If we make the championship game and win, then we likely will have a bye. Your thoughts?

 

[4thGenBamaGrad]

After the Iron Bowl, we will need to win 4 straight games to be National Champions. I think the risk/reward of playing in the SEC Championship--winning it and getting a Top 2 seed, home playoff game and playoff bye; losing and being out--is preferable to getting in as a 2-loss wild card team.

 

[22Musso22]

The problem is if we win out and play Texas in the SEC Championship Game and lose, we will get knocked out of the playoffs with 3 losses.

With this new 12 team playoff, conferences need to stop playing championship games. JMHO.

 

[bamafaninbham]

If we stay at this 12 team playoff, the only time i want Bama in the SEC championship game is if we have one or no losses. Going in to that SEC championship game with 2 losses is not a good situation. Win and in and lose and out. I would rather be in the 12 team playoff with 2 losses and no chance to play in Atlanta for the SEC. Of course it would be great to just win all our games, the SEC and the NCAA championships. But that won't happen often with the current state of college football.

 

[KrAzY3]

The committee is showing their hand a bit, playing it like last year... which is so say SoS and metrics mean very little to them, as they still have Miami ahead of Alabama.

Point of reference, Sagarin has Alabama #3 with an SoS of 4, while Miami is 11 with an SoS of 54. ESPN's FPI likes Alabama even more, at #1 with Miami 11th. I'm making this point to say that if Alabama beats Oklahoma and then Auburn, but loses in the SECCG, think the committee is going to sit around and go look Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the nation, the stats tell us they're a top 5 team, they're in?

Nope... not happening. The committee is still rewarding soft schedules even though SoS is supposed to count it only counts sometimes. So, I want Tennessee to win and then I want them matched up with a Texas team so Alabama can coast into the playoff instead of playing another tough must win test.

Remember, Georgia missed out on the playoffs due to a SECCG despite clearly being better than at least 2 other teams in the playoff, they won't be able to excuse leaving out a two loss Alabama team, they will absolutely leave out a three loss Alabama team.

 

[crimsonaudio]

The problem is if we win out and play Texas in the SEC Championship Game and lose, we will get knocked out of the playoffs with 3 losses.

No one knows this to be true.

In fact, the CFP has stated that conference runner-ups won't be 'unduly penalized' for losing the conference championship game.

Not only that, but since the CFP started (10 years), 13 different 3-loss teams were ranked in the final top10 of the CFP poll.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856400948152688918

 

[BamaFanatJSU]

I think the risk/reward of playing in the SEC Championship--winning it and getting a Top 2 seed, home playoff game and playoff bye; losing and being out--is preferable to getting in as a 2-loss wild card team.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't all CFP games after round 1 played at the traditional bowl sites? Meaning, if we win the SECCG, we'd bypass the hosting round, right?

In addition, let's say that we play for the conference title and lose, but we still manage to get into the CFP as the 11 or 12 seed. Now we still have to play four Top 10 teams in 30 days (assuming we make a full run) with one less week to prepare and the first game being a true road game against what would likely be may a Top 4 team (if a G5 school gets a bye). That's five straight Top 10 games in 44 days, which would be hard to do and stay healthy, not to mention it would be the most games played in one season in modern college football history.

To be frank, if we take care of business the next three weeks and are in position to make the CFP field as a 6-8 seed, I'd rather bypass the SEC title game (and the associated risks) altogether, get healthy, and host a playoff game on the 20th.

 

[uaintn]

I was at the very first SEC Championship game. It was glorious. But I recall Coach Stallings saying beforehand, “We are undefeated and have the best record in the conference, but we havent won anything yet.” I went last year. I buy SEC Championship shirts and caps.

Sadly, though, I think the Mouse has made it so that if we can get in without winning the SEC Championship, then we shouldn’t play in it. Better to rest and not risk the injuries especially against what promises to be one of the top teams in the country. One more DB or DE injury and we are in desperate shape.

And if things fall right, we might get a first round game in Tuscaloosa against a relatively outclassed opponent.

That said, I will never root for the lowdown dirty snitches.

 

[KrAzY3]

In fact, the CFP has stated that conference runner-ups won't be 'unduly penalized' for losing the conference championship game.

Georgia won the national championship in 2022. They were undefeated in the regular season in 2023. They came into the conference championship game ranked #1. They lost by three points (to the #4 team) and proceeded to fall all the way to #6, below two other one loss teams. That sure looks like being unduly penalized to me.

Edit: Just to provide a little more context, FSU played #14 Louisville and won 16-6, capping off a fairly soft schedule. Even though the committee supposedly took their starting QB's injury into account, they still ranked FSU ahead of Georgia, despite Georgia obviously being a better team (who would go on to beat FSU 63-3).

So, I think we have some insight into what they'll do to a team that loses a conference championship game, even if the loss is to a high ranked team and are clearly one of the best teams. They even put one loss Texas ahead of Georgia.

 

[cbi1972]

The committee is showing their hand a bit, playing it like last year... which is so say SoS and metrics mean very little to them, as they still have Miami ahead of Alabama.

Point of reference, Sagarin has Alabama #3 with an SoS of 4, while Miami is 11 with an SoS of 54. ESPN's FPI likes Alabama even more, at #1 with Miami 11th. I'm making this point to say that if Alabama beats Oklahoma and then Auburn, but loses in the SECCG, think the committee is going to sit around and go look Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the nation, the stats tell us they're a top 5 team, they're in?

Nope... not happening. The committee is still rewarding soft schedules even though SoS is supposed to count it only counts sometimes. So, I want Tennessee to win and then I want them matched up with a Texas team so Alabama can coast into the playoff instead of playing another tough must win test.

Remember, Georgia missed out on the playoffs due to a SECCG despite clearly being better than at least 2 other teams in the playoff, they won't be able to excuse leaving out a two loss Alabama team, they will absolutely leave out a three loss Alabama team.

If I remember right, you called the committee stupid through the 2023 season for similar reasons right up until they defied your expectation and put Alabama in over FSU.

 

[KrAzY3]

If I remember right, you called the committee stupid through the 2023 season for similar reasons right up until they defied your expectation and put Alabama in over FSU.

I still called them stupid after that as well (and for years before that as well) . Their rankings were still stupid, just they put Alabama in but Alabama did not belong at #4, that was too low, and obviously Georgia at #6 was too low. They got more wrong than right.

Just so we all remember how dumb those guys were, they had one loss Oregon at #5 and one loss Alabama at #8 based on what exactly the week prior? Just sheer stupidity...

By the way, I can't recall saying they wouldn't put Alabama ahead of FSU either. But the committee is a joke and has been a joke, but in this case we're talking about a very specific scenario and we can see in the recent past how they've handled the issue.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

No one knows this to be true.

In fact, the CFP has stated that conference runner-ups won't be 'unduly penalized' for losing the conference championship game.

Not only that, but since the CFP started (10 years), 13 different 3-loss teams were ranked in the final top10 of the CFP poll.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856400948152688918

I guess the term "unduly penalized" means not punished too harshly but I think a team would most likely still be punished somewhat. Depends I guess how high the runner-up is ranked going into conference championship. They could mean if a team is let's say in the top 6 or 7 for example and lose the conference championship they won't drop them all the way out of the top 12 but maybe if a team is 10th like we currently are then a SECCG loss could very well drop us out. Some may interpret the phrase "unduly penalized" to mean the runner-up won't lose their spot in the rankings which I find hard to believe.

 

[KrAzY3]

Some may interpret the phrase "unduly penalized" to mean the runner-up won't lose their spot in the rankings which I find hard to believe.

Georgia went from 1 to 6 in 2023 after their conference championship game, falling below two one loss teams. Oregon went from 5 to 8, and notably they fell below Ohio State who did not play in a conference championship game.

If that means anything, it means for instance if Alabama plays in the SECCG and loses, they are going to be passed by a 2 loss Ole Miss, Georgia, or even Tennessee, unless the committee just decides to do things entirely differently this year. If you look at the committee's ranking last year, with the exception of FSU it was basically by record.

First and second, undefeated, 4-7 (except FSU) one loss, 8-12 two loss, 13-18 three loss, 19-22 4 loss. So, only one team in the top 22 wasn't ranked according to loss totals. In the past the committee was more willing to use SoS but clearly not lately they actually lean so far the other way they are further away from the computers than the polls are. This year the BCS would have Alabama nearly tied with the #8 team (Notre Dame) while the committee has Alabama at 10 and Miami the 12th ranked BCS team at 9.

The committee basically has the least data driven rankings out there, it's far more just win loss record and style points.

 

[B1GTide]

If they really want conference championships to matter, release your final rankings the week before those games. Teams would never be penalized by losing the game, but could still rocket up if they won.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Yes it’s best for us if UGA loses to UT. Unless winning the SECCG gets us a definite Top 4. Then we get a bye. And that extra game saves us one later, with an easier path.

but beating Texas to try to avoid an extra game with Indiana or BYU seems “not worth it”

pulling for the Orange seems to make the most sense which means UGA likely wins by 20+ causing chaos

 

[CajunCrimson]

Finally. Lots of what ifs. 25% of the reg season is left. Won’t be too many 1-2 loss teams left at the end.

 

[bamadwain]

Just like in baseball, don't trust a umpire when game is on the line, u take advantage, I don't trust the committee, just win out!

 

[Saban4Ever]

Seems the CFP only cares about wins and losses unless you are conference champion... then they may put you ahead of teams with less losses. This is the exception. Example: like they did with Alabama last year since we won the conference.

I've read on other boards that people seem to think it benefits Bama more if Georgia wins out. Who wants to pull for TN anyway? lol.

I'm afraid of what the committee will do if Bama loses the SEC champ game and has 3 losses. I just don't understand why the committee doesn't follow the SOS and SOR rule and only seems to care about wins and losses. Maybe that will change in the last week? Bama just needs to win out and then we are in.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Georgia won the national championship in 2022. They were undefeated in the regular season in 2023. They came into the conference championship game ranked #1. They lost by three points (to the #4 team) and proceeded to fall all the way to #6, below two other one loss teams. That sure looks like being unduly penalized to me.

Edit: Just to provide a little more context, FSU played #14 Louisville and won 16-6, capping off a fairly soft schedule. Even though the committee supposedly took their starting QB's injury into account, they still ranked FSU ahead of Georgia, despite Georgia obviously being a better team (who would go on to beat FSU 63-3).

So, I think we have some insight into what they'll do to a team that loses a conference championship game, even if the loss is to a high ranked team and are clearly one of the best teams. They even put one loss Texas ahead of Georgia.

Comparing the decisions made for 4 vs 12 teams isn't valid, imo.

Before this year, they've never gone on record saying conference runner-ups wouldn't be unduly punished. That's new as before, it was a de facto elimination game due to limited spaces.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Seems the CFP only cares about wins and losses unless you are conference champion... then they may put you ahead of teams with less losses. This is the exception. Example: like they did with Alabama last year since we won the conference.

I've read on other boards that people seem to think it benefits Bama more if Georgia wins out. Who wants to pull for TN anyway? lol.

I'm afraid of what the committee will do if Bama loses the SEC champ game and has 3 losses. I just don't understand why the committee doesn't follow the SOS and SOR rule and only seems to care about wins and losses. Maybe that will change in the last week? Bama just needs to win out and then we are in.

Again, literally no one knows what or how they will make the decisions post auto-bids. Lots of assumptions floating around, but until we see them act, we don't know. Heck, the committee wasn't even consistent regarding how they chose the four best teams (it went from 'the four most deserving' to 'the four best teams').

Assuming anything beyond what they've stated at this point is a bit silly, especially when you consider that the CFP committee knows (even better than you or I) that if they want this to continue, they'd best be fair to the B1G and SEC (at the very least, if not outright having their thumbs on the proverbial scales)...