What if the SEC decides to finish off the ACC?

TitleWave

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...What I can say with certainty is that this, what we have now, SUCKS. I don't care if Boise State or any Big 12 team is included. I don't care about SMU winning 11 games against a schedule ranked 70th. I went to bed Saturday night at halftime of the ACC championship even though it was to impact Alabama's standing so strongly because I DO NOT CARE about almost any of those teams but especially SMU!
Then you gotta blame Karen as an accessory to the fact. What kind of coach on the way to a 50-point first half with the opposition putting up gnat whispers of offensive and defensive performance, wins a game against the Class 7A (or maybe better 6A) Texas State High School champions needing to rely on a last-play 56-yard field goal?

I wouldn't want Clemps lining up in a potato sack race at my church social, much less coming into the SEC. Of course they give the All Cupcake Conference what little cred it's currently got, but that could change too when they recruit Centre College and Sewanee to better serve their intersectional scheduling needs...
 
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TideEngineer08

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some of you keep forgetting that other sports exist. so you want to breakaway from the rest. What happens to the other sports? Does our new super conference have just SEC and B1G basketball tournaments?
They forgot other sports existed when they added Pacific coast teams to conferences based on the Atlantic seaboard and the upper midwest.
 

DzynKingRTR

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They forgot other sports existed when they added Pacific coast teams to conferences based on the Atlantic seaboard and the upper midwest.
True. However, you missed my point. What happens to Creighton or Gonzaga? What happens to UConn? They have a trash football team, but one of the best basketball teams. You cannot give equal footing yo UConn football. We will just be right back where we started.
 

TideEngineer08

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True. However, you missed my point. What happens to Creighton or Gonzaga? What happens to UConn? They have a trash football team, but one of the best basketball teams. You cannot give equal footing yo UConn football. We will just be right back where we started.
I did understand your point, and I admit I sort of dodged it with that response.

But clearly, the most powerful entities in collegiate sports are proving over and over that college football is all they truly care about. If there is a break away as I would like to see, then what we know the college basketball tournament as (and all the other non-football sports) is going to have to change.

Or, perhaps there is another way. Once the other conferences stabilize, you could continue to have the ncaa basketball tournament. It's just that, instead of the Big Ten and SEC getting 7, 8, 9 bids a piece or so, they would get 10, 11, 12 or so. These extra bids would be taken from the ACC/Big 12. Those two leagues would now be mid-majors and get mid-major treatment. One guaranteed bid, maybe two or three depending on the strength of their remaining teams. Something like the WCC getting Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU into the tournament in a given year.

When it comes to football though, the new mega-league would not share anything with the lower divisions. The rest of the football conferences could carry on with bowls and tournaments as it pleased. The new mega-league would play only teams inside said league and its postseason would only feature mega-league teams.

That's my quick take on the matter. I realize that it is extremely unlikely a breakaway by the Big Ten and SEC would actually come to pass though. Sankey and others simply aren't that brave. And the lawsuits. I reckon no matter which approach is taken, lawsuits would be overwhelming.
 
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NoNC4Tubs

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Then you gotta blame Karen as an accessory to the fact. What kind of coach on the way to a 50-point first half with the opposition putting up gnat whispers of offensive and defensive performance, wins a game against the Class 7A (or maybe better 6A) Texas State High School champions needing to rely on a last-play 56-yard field goal?

I wouldn't want Clemps lining up in a potato sack race at my church social, much less coming into the SEC. Of course they give the All Cupcake Conference what little cred it's currently got, but that could change too when they recruit Centre College and Sewanee to better serve their intersectional scheduling needs...
SMU and Klempson are going to get skull-dragged in the first round...and nobody outside of the states of Texas or South Carolina will even be watching. :cool:
 
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KrAzY3

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some of you keep forgetting that other sports exist. so you want to breakaway from the rest. What happens to the other sports? Does our new super conference have just SEC and B1G basketball tournaments?
There have been plenty of examples of teams participating in a conference in all sports but football. Gonzaga is one of those examples. So in theory you can breakaway in football only and form the aforementioned college football league.

I tried to come up with a basketball playoff (it's big money) featuring only the SEC and Big 10 and the additional teams they'd have to add to really give themselves credibility (Duke, Kansas, etc...) are probably not worth it.

Although if you're trying to fill out a 12 game football schedule, you can start to make the case for letting in some programs with consideration for basketball. I mentioned Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina and Syracuse, they all bring basketball credibility, but if you start to bring in Kansas, Duke, etc... it might not be worth it.

The other possibility is basketball only inclusions. Gonzaga doesn't play basketball, and a program like Duke might be fine as a basketball only addition, so if you go that route you do open the door for your own basketball postseason and another billion dollar revenue stream.


There will be doubt after the smoke clears from this "tournament" who the two dominant conferences are.
I think that's but part of the issue is if you create enough smoke you obscure the real picture. I remember TCU getting absolutely crushed by Georgia, they never should have been the #3 seed, but all some people remember is they squeaked by a team that was probably limited by their inability to steal TCU's signs.

In this case, there are two cupcake brackets. First is the worst one, you get SMU vs Penn State which will go on to play Boise State. Penn State doesn't have an especially good resume, but I think we expect them to win those games. However, if you told me to pick a team that might not, well they're not as good as Texas or Ohio State for example. Boise State getting to gameplan while Penn State plays a game is an enormous advantage. I expect Georgia (if healthy enough) to crush whoever makes it out, but there's a decent chance SMU or Boise State make it out of there simply based on the odds.

Then there's Texas' bracket. I would favor them much more heavily, but they play a more physical and arguably better team in Clemson, while Arizona St. can sit around and scheme. Basically if I was trying to create a scenario where Texas or Penn State could be upset by lesser programs, it would be something like this.


And the lawsuits. I reckon no matter which approach is taken, lawsuits would be overwhelming.
I'm not sure what you can really do in terms of the actual breakaway, if it's a true breakaway. Nothing says you have to compete in the NCAA. You form your own thing and compete, like the NAIA. The NCCAA is also a thing, so if all member schools agree to it, I'm not sure who can sue the SEC or Big 10 to force them to stick around in the NCAA for football. I mean the NCAA has actually given teams the death penalty before, they did that to SMU, so who could have sued SMU to keep them from playing football in their own league and on what basis?
 
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JDCrimson

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They gave OU and Texas cake conference schedules because the SEC and ESPN wanted an immediate ROI and embed the fans in the transition. Texas is probably feeling real happy about transitioning probably wondering why they didn't do this a decade ago. Oklahoma on the other hand is probably having buyer's remorse from a competition standpoint.

In order for this merger to payoff, OU and Texas will need time in the NC hunt despite not having earned it from a competition standpoint. I can about guarantee that in 2 years we will be complaining about OU's cake conference schedule.
 
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KrAzY3

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I decided to just take the committee's ranking, but borrowed from Snuffy's conference alignments and make a top 12. Just top 6 from SEC and Big 10 (not my preferred method but playoffs gonna playoff):
#1 Oregon
#2 Georgia
#3 Texas
#4 Penn State
#5 Notre Dame
#6 Ohio State
#7 Tennessee
#8 Indiana
#9 Alabama
#10 Miami
#11 Ole Miss
#12 South Carolina

I think that's just straight up a demonstrably better playoff, both in terms of quality teams and in terms of entertainment value.

It also clearly demonstrates that if you do just add a few of the bigger brands, there is absolutely no need whatsoever for the other conferences. They're irrelevant.
 

TideEngineer08

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I agree on Texas, but in what world was OU's conference schedule cake?

UT
@ AU
UTx
USC
@ Miss
@ Mizz
Bama
@ LSU
What the SEC did with Texas's schedule is undeniable. Mind you, I'm not denying Texas as a good team with great talent and depth and good coaching. But the initial schedule was a set up.

Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Oklahoma were baked in. I get that. That's their 3 biggest historical rivals. Good.

The Georgia game was the one "big" game that was new. Yet... that game is in Austin the first year. Huge win for Texas but they lose the game anyway.

What follows is where the conspiracy occurs. Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida? That is a joke. You throw Florida in there because it looks good but (all apologies to Bazza) this is NOT the Florida of 2009 and isn't anywhere close to that (YET).

They basically gave Texas a guaranteed 7-1 record and SEC championship game berth. Thanks to Georgia, as much as that statement makes me vomit, for destroying what Sankey obviously wanted to happen.
 

bamamc1

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I decided to just take the committee's ranking, but borrowed from Snuffy's conference alignments and make a top 12. Just top 6 from SEC and Big 10 (not my preferred method but playoffs gonna playoff):
#1 Oregon
#2 Georgia
#3 Texas
#4 Penn State
#5 Notre Dame
#6 Ohio State
#7 Tennessee
#8 Indiana
#9 Alabama
#10 Miami
#11 Ole Miss
#12 South Carolina

I think that's just straight up a demonstrably better playoff, both in terms of quality teams and in terms of entertainment value.

It also clearly demonstrates that if you do just add a few of the bigger brands, there is absolutely no need whatsoever for the other conferences. They're irrelevant.
I wish you hadn't done that. I'm mad again.
 

Snuffy Smith

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This a link to Nielsen ratings that College Football Nerds referred to (posted in another thread)

Click Here

  • 18 teams make up 50% of all CFB viewers
  • 15 of the 18 are SEC or B1G teams
  • Clemson, FSU, & Notre Dame are the other 3.
I would like to get my hands on the raw numbers and see what total viewership the 2 conference format we are talking about in this thread would have.
 
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Snuffy Smith

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Found some raw numbers here. I am not sure where this guy gets his numbers, but he has been doing this for a few years. The numbers don’t totally sync up with the Nielsen numbers. He has quite a few interesting stats on CFB viewership.

Based on these numbers, two new super conferences that included B1G, SEC, plus
  • Notre Dame #12
  • Miami #15
  • Georgia Tech #21 - kind of surprised they were so high
  • Clemson #24
  • Colorado #9 - surprising rating number, Coach Prime value)
  • Florida State #25 - down year maybe based on poor season?
Total average views per week 118.961 Million, although maybe 1/2 that because I am not sure that they don’t count every game twice, once for each team. Either way the % math will work the same. Bottom line is that by doing this you will pick up 75% of the viewers you have today. The remaining 25% will be quite vocal I am sure - the minority view normally is...

Total 118.961M
B1G 31.247M
SEC 44.757M
ADDS (6 teams) 13.530M
New league total viewers 89.534M
New league % of total viewers 75.3%
 
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KrAzY3

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Found some raw numbers here. I am not sure where this guy gets his numbers, but he has been doing this for a few years. The numbers don’t totally sync up with the Nielsen numbers. He has quite a few interesting stats on CFB viewership.

Based on these numbers, two new super conferences that included B1G, SEC, plus
  • Notre Dame #12
  • Miami #15
  • Georgia Tech #21 - kind of surprised they were so high
  • Clemson #24
  • Colorado #9 - surprising rating number, Coach Prime value)
  • Florida State #25 - down year maybe based on poor season?
Total average views per week 118.961 Million, although maybe 1/2 that because I am not sure that they don’t count every game twice, once for each team. Either way the % math will work the same.

Total 118.961M
B1G 31.247M
SEC 44.757M
ADDS (6 teams) 13.530M
New league total viewers 89.534M
New league % of total viewers 75.3%
I was closely following college football expansion, athletic department revenue, attendance, and ratings for quite a while and one point I would make is that numbers will vary greatly from year to year. For instance Georgia Tech and Colorado are aberrations, based on various factors, not indicative of consistent performance.

Recency bias is an issue with a lot of teams, for instance not that long ago people saw Virginia Tech as a real good addition (and I consistently argued their value would go down once they struggled more in football), now they're out of the equation entirely. I'd add that Clemson is in a bit of a risky spot as well, I've generally preferred North Carolina over them due to the geography of it but they are recognized as a brand right now so I'm not too inclined to argue.

The two rock solid football brands are FSU and Notre Dame. FSU still draws rating even when they're complete garbage. Notre Dame always draws eyeballs as well. Those two are actually the only two essential brands and you could even make the case for leaving FSU out.

Even the 2016-2023 data is a bit flawed here as it still draws from a period that saw a lot of Clemson success for instance. If you go back a bit you will find they weren't even the most popular program in the state of South Carolina. They need the SEC/Big 10 more than the SEC/Big 10 needs them and I'd say that goes for everyone not named FSU and Notre Dame.

It's really not that important though. You pick FSU and Notre Dame, then you can just kind of pick out of a few other possibilities. Miami, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, even Georgia Tech (who meets Big 10 academic requirements). This thread shows the ACC ratings from 2023 and you see the general drop off (and GT ratings without the aberration): https://syracusefan.com/threads/interesting-article-on-cfb-tv-viewership.184339/

Edit: I might as well just go with the top 2023 rated teams outside of the proposed Big 10/SEC conference to indicate the gap and movement from the 2024 list you posted.

#4 Colorado (entirely media driven hype, will not be sustained whatsoever, dropped to #9 in 2024)
#20 Oregon State (dropped to 50th in 2024)
#25 Utah (dropped to 34)
#28 TCU (dropped to 48th)

Now let's review top 2024 teams that fall on the outside that this list doesn't include:
#21 Georgia Tech (53 in 2023)
#30 Kansas State (52 in 2023)

So... really there's just not much there. The only one that looks exciting at all would be Colorado and that's 100% a product of the Coach Prime thing. Having said that, you could actually argue they are a better addition than Miami or Clemson which have some underlying issues as well. This really speaks to just how bad off the rest of college football is though. There are two consistent performers in FSU and Notre Dame and then there's a real drop off.
 
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Snuffy Smith

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I was closely following college football expansion, athletic department revenue, attendance, and ratings for quite a while and one point I would make is that numbers will vary greatly from year to year. For instance Georgia Tech and Colorado are aberrations, based on various factors, not indicative of consistent performance.

Recency bias is an issue with a lot of teams, for instance not that long ago people saw Virginia Tech as a real good addition (and I consistently argued their value would go down once they struggled more in football), now they're out of the equation entirely. I'd add that Clemson is in a bit of a risky spot as well, I've generally preferred North Carolina over them due to the geography of it but they are recognized as a brand right now so I'm not too inclined to argue.

The two rock solid football brands are FSU and Notre Dame. FSU still draws rating even when they're complete garbage. Notre Dame always draws eyeballs as well. Those two are actually the only two essential brands.

Even the 2016-2023 data is a bit flawed here as it still draws from a period that saw a lot of Clemson success for instance. If you go back a bit you will find they weren't even the most popular program in the state of South Carolina. They need the SEC/Big 10 more than the SEC/Big 10 needs them and I'd say that goes for everyone not named FSU and Notre Dame.

It's really not that important though. You pick FSU and Notre Dame, then you can just kind of pick out of a few other possibilities. Miami, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, even Georgia Tech (who meets Big 10 academic requirements). This thread shows the ACC ratings from 2023 and you see the general drop off (and GT ratings without the aberration): https://syracusefan.com/threads/interesting-article-on-cfb-tv-viewership.184339/
I have seen others (might have been in a thread in this forum) that suggested having teams that would move in and out of the league based on success or lack of success much like Euro soccer Premier League. Not sure if I would go completely there, but a system similar to that for a certain number of rotational spots might make some sense.
 

KrAzY3

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I have seen others (might have been in a thread in this forum) that suggested having teams that would move in and out of the league based on success or lack of success much like Euro soccer Premier League. Not sure if I would go completely there, but a system similar to that for a certain number of rotational spots might make some sense.
The issue is this is about money and while from a competitive standpoint that might make some sense, it doesn't from a financial standpoint.

A good example of that would be FSU this year. They still averaged 1.64 million, barely below Clemson at 1.7 million. Clemson had a solid season, top 20 and ACC champs, FSU was one of the worst programs in college football. Boise State had a great season, and they averaged 422K viewers. You can't go with a system that replaces FSU with Boise State even if it is deserving based on results.

I think that ranks the core values of the brands as well as anything does. FSU at their worst is still worth about as much as Clemson and at this low point they are still worth 4 times as much as Boise State at their best.
 
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Professor

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If its a market thing, the only schools in the ACC that can provide a market to match most current SEC schools are North Carolina, Virginia and Cal. Clemson has very little market outside northwestern SC and western NC. FSU is overwhelmed by UF in Florida and has no market whatsoever outside Florida.
North Carolina and Virginia rank high in population and both universities are highly respected academically. North Carolina is 9th and Virginia 12th in population. Both are quite wealthy with very large endowments (UNC 5.1 billion, UVa 14.2 billion) North Carolina just made a commitment to football with the hiring of Belichick. I have a bet with my friends here in Albemarle that within three years UNC will be expanding the stadium to 90-100,000.
In just a few years we will see two conferences of 20 schools each. The organization will either be totally separate from the NCAA or will operate as an independent entity within the NCAA. Frankly I don't like to see college sports, especially football, governed by money, but that's the way it is.
 

KrAzY3

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If its a market thing, the only schools in the ACC that can provide a market to match most current SEC schools are North Carolina, Virginia and Cal. Clemson has very little market outside northwestern SC and western NC. FSU is overwhelmed by UF in Florida and has no market whatsoever outside Florida.
North Carolina and Virginia rank high in population and both universities are highly respected academically. North Carolina is 9th and Virginia 12th in population. Both are quite wealthy with very large endowments (UNC 5.1 billion, UVa 14.2 billion) North Carolina just made a commitment to football with the hiring of Belichick. I have a bet with my friends here in Albemarle that within three years UNC will be expanding the stadium to 90-100,000.
In just a few years we will see two conferences of 20 schools each. The organization will either be totally separate from the NCAA or will operate as an independent entity within the NCAA. Frankly I don't like to see college sports, especially football, governed by money, but that's the way it is.
Good breakdown.

I think Cal is a reach due to geography, but NC and Virginia are the most valuable market territory. NC also is a very valuable brand. Clemson is at best a hood ornament, the value is largely psychological whereas at least FSU brings consistent ratings, but if the SEC was to expand tomorrow based on the current climate I'd choose NC and Virginia in a heartbeat.

Anyway, I came back to resurrect this thread because I was thinking a lot about something else. That incredibly stupid transfer portal. If the SEC and the Big 10 broke away they could fix what is arguably the worst thing about college football right now.

I think actually what would work best would be to go back to the old transfer rules for the SEC and Big 10, namely that you have to sit out a year if you transfer. I know this doesn't mesh well with the current climate, but in practice it would work pretty well I believe.

The SEC and Big 10 would in theory be at a different level, in a lot of ways like it was for transfers to and from junior colleges during the old transfer rules. Since you had to sit out a year, a lot of players (like Cam Newton) would go play for a JC and then transfer back into the FBS. The FBS programs also recruited players out of junior college.

So, even if the current FBS kept their stupid rules, if someone really really wanted out they'd leave the SEC/Big 10, go play at a lower level and then after a year they could transfer back in. This would prevent the constant jumping back and forth though and bidding wars that happen every single year.
 

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