Government Shutdown

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Which party has the most to lose or win in the event we have a prolonged shutdown? I'm afraid we're going to witness a high stakes game of chicken in the coming days.
 

Halloween could come early this year. The Democrats have named their price to avoid a government shutdown come October – an additional $350 billion for healthcare over the next decade. Critics say a big chunk of that money may go to ghosts.

At issue are the generous subsidies the Biden administration created for Affordable Care Act policies, sweeteners that are slated to expire in December. Making healthcare essentially free for millions of Americans, those policies have skyrocketed enrollment in Obamacare plans. But a recent study found they have also sparked a curious phenomenon: an estimated 12 million enrollees “without a single claim – no doctor visit, lab test, or prescription filled” in 2024.

Not the 80/20 issue that Democrats typically fall for, but one that is nonetheless on the radar of people who are keeping up with this shutdown story. If the shutdown happens, the bureaucracy firings are going to ramp up. I get the feeling that Trump has been waiting for this.
 
Which party has the most to lose or win in the event we have a prolonged shutdown? I'm afraid we're going to witness a high stakes game of chicken in the coming days.

Nobody.

Let's end the myth of "won the shutdown" once and for all, shall we?

1) There were four one-day shutdowns in 1980, 1981, 1984, and 1986.

Carter did not lose in 1980 because of the one-day shutdown, there were no elections in 1981, Reagan won a thumping landslide one month to the day after the 1984 shutdown (and the Dems picked up two Senate seats), and the Democrats were going to win the midterms in 1986 anyway.

2) Columbus Day weekend 1990

Inconvenienced some folks visiting DC monuments but the 8 lost House seats and one Senate seat a month later were not bad losses for a party who's President had just raised taxes.

3) 1995-96 Gingrich vs Clinton Shutdowns

The government shut down twice, November 14 - 19, 1995 and December 16, 1995 - January 6, 1996. THIS is the one that the media's shameless bias tells us all, "The public was with Clinton and he won the shutdown showdown!!"

He did? On what basis?

On November 17, Clinton's approval rating was 53% for polls taken just prior to the shutdown on 11/14.

On January 5, 1996, his approval rating was down to 42%. So if everybody agreed with Clinton and hated Gingrich and the Republicans, how did Clinton's approval rating go DOWN if they were on his side??

Clinton's numbers did go back up right after the government opened, and Clinton did get re-elected. But the Republicans ADDED two Senate seats (Arkansas, Nebraska). Sure, the Republicans lost 4 House seats, but given the Democrats lost 9 on the day Clinton was elected in 1992, losing less than half then when you also lose the White House seems pretty damned successful to me.

And then remember this: on November 15, 1995 - BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN - the White House used unpaid interns to do things. On that day, one of the interns, 22-year-old Monica Lewinsky, began the (whatever) with President Clinton that consumed his second term. Monica delivered him a pizza, and the earth moved.

So somebody tell me again - how in the hell can anyone with a brain say "Clinton won the government shutdown" given all that happened and not just the sound bites???? You see, folks, this is why I don't believe political myths concocted by professional nonsense writers.

4) 2013 Shutdown - October 1 Through 17


OK, most folks don't recall this and who won?
The Republicans took control of the Senate the next election cycle and won 13 House seats.

But they probably would have done that anyway since "6th year" elections have proven the undoing of FDR, Eisenhower, 1966 Democrats, 1974 Republicans, Reagan, and Dubya. And the only reason Clinton didn't get his clock cleaned in 1998 (no matter what myth you've been told) is that the GOP pretty much bagged all of the seats they could take in 1994.

5) January 2018 - Immigration

It was a two-day shutdown. Yes, the Democrats won the House back, but the Republicans used the Kavanaugh hearings in October to keep the Senate. So again.....who paid? Nobody.

6) Dec 2018 - Jan 2019 Shutdown - The Shutdown so Mexico Could Pay for the Wall!!

Five week shutdown, longest ever.

Who won?
Nobody.

Nine government shutdowns.
Nothing changed anything at all.
Nobody lost an election because of it.
Or won one, either.
 
Can't say I have ever heard that euphemism before.

Seriously - he met her as an intern filling in and bringing him pizza because of the shutdown.

I mean, you talk about affecting the future. Because Gore BARELY lost in 2000, and part of the problem was that he couldn't have Clinton come out and campaign for him because most of the country had the smelly diaper approach to Clinton.

If that scandal doesn't blow up like that, does Gore win?

Of course, I don't think we can go that far with it, either. It's a fun theory.
But Elian Gonzalez had nothing to do with Lewinsky and that one event might have cost him Florida.
 
  • Emphasis!
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Happy (Fiscal) New Year's Eve!

Just sent out the last handful of contracts to be signed. As always, plenty of agencies had money left to spend ... so it had to be spent ... on something. And, as is usually the case, laptops - millions of dollars worth of laptops - were bought. Don't need them, but we will soon have them. They stack nicely in warehouses. Except that we are running out of warehouse space. So, next FY I will be getting a requirement to build a new warehouse.

I'll report to work in the morning, and if the government shuts down, we'll have our procedure to go through and then head home until we're allowed to start wasting money again. And then - with 90% certainty - we'll receive back pay for the time we didn't work. 🤷‍♂️
 
I'll report to work in the morning, and if the government shuts down, we'll have our procedure to go through and then head home until we're allowed to start wasting money again. And then - with 90% certainty - we'll receive back pay for the time we didn't work. 🤷‍♂️

Sounds like a good gig!
 
This was my favorite. In 2012, the federal government shut down because the Congress had not adopted a budget, so there was no money to run the federal government.
So the Obama Administration spent extra money to put up this pointless "barrier" to "close" the 2nd Infantry Division Memorial on Constitution Ave.
2nd Infantry Division Memorial DC 2012 shutdown.jpg
The memorial is open air and is inert so it requires no money to "run." It does require money to emplace a pointless barrier that visitors will simply walk around anyway. I see this as a metaphor.
 
eZBWiCkOskc6.jpeg
 
I'm sure we'll see some real ramifications from this shutdown.

Millions of US citizens are about to see some real nasty insurance rate hikes without replacing the ACA/Obamacare healthcare subsidies.

I for one am getting tired of the "make government so bad everyone wants it shutdown" crew and mantra. I want well running efficient government services like the Postal Service, Healthcare access, Social Security, etc., and a lot less of the cut everything 20% and watch the dominoes fall.
 
"President Trump and Congressional Republicans are already hurting Nevadans who are dealing with high costs, an economic slowdown, and a looming health care crisis," Cortez Masto said in a statement after the vote. "That’s why I cannot support a costly shutdown that would hurt Nevada families and hand even more power to this reckless administration."

 
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