Which party has the most to lose or win in the event we have a prolonged shutdown? I'm afraid we're going to witness a high stakes game of chicken in the coming days.
Nobody.
Let's end the myth of "won the shutdown" once and for all, shall we?
1) There were four one-day shutdowns in 1980, 1981, 1984, and 1986.
Carter did not lose in 1980 because of the one-day shutdown, there were no elections in 1981, Reagan won a thumping landslide one month to the day after the 1984 shutdown (and the Dems picked up two Senate seats), and the Democrats were going to win the midterms in 1986 anyway.
2) Columbus Day weekend 1990
Inconvenienced some folks visiting DC monuments but the 8 lost House seats and one Senate seat a month later were not bad losses for a party who's President had just raised taxes.
3) 1995-96 Gingrich vs Clinton Shutdowns
The government shut down twice,
November 14 - 19, 1995 and December 16, 1995 - January 6, 1996. THIS is the one that the media's shameless bias tells us all, "The public was with Clinton and he won the shutdown showdown!!"
He did?
On what basis?
On November 17, Clinton's
approval rating was 53% for polls taken just prior to the shutdown on 11/14.
On January 5, 1996, his approval rating was down to 42%. So if everybody agreed with Clinton and hated Gingrich and the Republicans,
how did Clinton's approval rating go DOWN if they were on his side??
Clinton's numbers did go back up right after the government opened, and Clinton did get re-elected. But the Republicans ADDED two Senate seats (Arkansas, Nebraska). Sure, the Republicans lost 4 House seats, but given the Democrats lost 9 on the day Clinton was elected in 1992, losing less than half then when you also lose the White House seems pretty damned successful to me.
And then remember this: on
November 15, 1995 - BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN - the White House used unpaid interns to do things.
On that day, one of the interns, 22-year-old Monica Lewinsky, began the (whatever) with President Clinton that consumed his second term. Monica delivered him a pizza, and the earth moved.
So somebody tell me again - how in the hell can anyone with a brain say "Clinton won the government shutdown" given all that happened and not just the sound bites???? You see, folks,
this is why I don't believe political myths concocted by professional nonsense writers.
4) 2013 Shutdown - October 1 Through 17
OK, most folks don't recall this and who won?
The Republicans took control of the Senate the next election cycle and won 13 House seats.
But they probably would have done that anyway since "6th year" elections have proven the undoing of FDR, Eisenhower, 1966 Democrats, 1974 Republicans, Reagan, and Dubya. And the only reason Clinton didn't get his clock cleaned in 1998 (no matter what myth you've been told) is that the GOP pretty much bagged all of the seats they could take in 1994.
5) January 2018 - Immigration
It was a two-day shutdown. Yes, the Democrats won the House back, but the Republicans used the Kavanaugh hearings in October to keep the Senate. So again.....who paid? Nobody.
6) Dec 2018 - Jan 2019 Shutdown - The Shutdown so Mexico Could Pay for the Wall!!
Five week shutdown, longest ever.
Who won?
Nobody.
Nine government shutdowns.
Nothing changed anything at all.
Nobody lost an election because of it.
Or won one, either.