Concerning Diego Pavia( AKA Johnny Manzel II IMHO ), Is a Dedicated Spy Worth The Potential Reward Vs. The Risk?

[graydogg85]

It is an era ruled by offense. The rules and schemes favor that side of the ball now and we aren't going back to the heyday of Coach Saban's defenses and earlier. While we can all point the finger at Pete, and there were major issues under him, you aren't going to shut down teams all the time. We got torched more and more often after 2017 even with Coach Saban modifying his system over time.

I think we need to commit to rushing more people (seems like we rush 3 too much and get burned) and we need better LB play. Gap integrity was not good against Georgia and it will be evident if we don't step it up against Vandy. I suspect we will struggle against Vandy because 5/8 in our two deep at DL are dinged or out. We've got good young talent along the DL and OL that looks like it will work better with DeBoer's scheme, but it has to be developed and supplemented with good portal additions.

We also needed a more portal ready system where we could play more guys and they could be ready faster. We aren't going to be stockpiling 4/5* talent and having them spend two years learning the system before they hit the field! We've already played more guys in meaningful time than we ever did under CNS, and I think that will help retain more players.

Agreed.

I actually think we are entering a cycle where defenses are starting to catch up, but elite defense doesn’t look like it did 20 years ago. The best ones limit scoring but are still giving up some yardage and chunk plays. The days of holding a good offense to 150 yards and 6 points are probably long gone, unless that offense just has a catastrophic day with multiple turnovers. You do, however, see fewer and fewer shootouts with both teams scoring in the 40s, which seemingly became almost the norm in elite matchups between 2012 - 2022 or so.

Holding Georgia to 21 points, and holding their starting QB under 150 yards passing, in their own stadium, is impressive. They hung 44 on Tennessee on the road and Stockton had 300 yards. This means that our defense largely did what our particular scheme was designed to do. We’d like to see fewer chunk running plays, but on the whole this is what the system is more or less supposed to look like against elite competition. Limit explosive passing plays, generate turnovers, and get stops in the red zone. Philosophically somewhat similar to our approach under Joe Kines.

 

[bamaga]

Its not the QB so much as the scheme. The Vandy offense is a lot like Malzahns with the motions and window dressings and getting the defense to flow one way and go against the flow. We didn't handle that very well with eye discipline and assignment football vs FSU , and we didnt handle it well vs Georgia. Most of their big plays came off misdirection and backs going against the flow of the defense. Our defense has to limit them to 24 points or less and our offense has to put pressure on them to score points. Complimentary football. If Alabama is back to being a contender, how they handle this game will say a lot.

 

[bamaga]

No matter how much better we are at the QB position this year than last, the offense really wasn't the problem against Vandy last year.

The defense completely blew it in that game.

But so did the offense, it was a totalteam effort to lose that game. Two turnovers that led to 14 Vandy points . A penalty that negated a first down and forced a punt. Another penalty that Negated a 49yard pass play and forced a punt from our own 8 that led to a Vandy FG. TOTAL TEAM LOSS

 

[arthurdawg]

Agreed.

I actually think we are entering a cycle where defenses are starting to catch up, but elite defense doesn’t look like it did 20 years ago. The best ones limit scoring but are still giving up some yardage and chunk plays. The days of holding a good offense to 150 yards and 6 points are probably long gone, unless that offense just has a catastrophic day with multiple turnovers. You do, however, see fewer and fewer shootouts with both teams scoring in the 40s, which seemingly became almost the norm in elite matchups between 2012 - 2022 or so.

Holding Georgia to 21 points, and holding their starting QB under 150 yards passing, in their own stadium, is impressive. They hung 44 on Tennessee on the road and Stockton had 300 yards. This means that our defense largely did what our particular scheme was designed to do. We’d like to see fewer chunk running plays, but on the whole this is what the system is more or less supposed to look like against elite competition. Limit explosive passing plays, generate turnovers, and get stops in the red zone. Philosophically somewhat similar to our approach under Joe Kines.

Yes... And after I wrote that, I'm always surprised when a high powered offense scores 13 points against an average defense one week and 48 against a top defense the next! It kinda fits the bend and don't break philosophy.

 

[BamaDMD]

Some other noteworthy stats from last years game. Pavia converted 13/18 on third down (66.7%).
Also TOP: 42 minutes for Vandy and 17minutes for Bama.

That cannot happen this year.

 

[arthurdawg]

Some other noteworthy stats from last years game. Pavia converted 13/18 on third down (66.7%).
Also TOP: 42 minutes for Vandy and 17minutes for Bama.

That cannot happen this year.

We don't need them holding the ball >40 minutes with our depleted DL for sure.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

I listened to a little bit of Wommack's press conference from the UGA game and according to him execution is the problem. He says we've got players not fitting the right gaps, not setting the edge, not holding containment, etc. So in a way he was defending his scheme and saying the players need to execute better. I will say there's probably a lot of truth to that, but I also wonder does the scheme have inherent blindspots in it that make it hard for the players to do what he's saying they need to do?

 

[BamaMoon]

It’s not the d scheme as in 4-2-5 it’s how he implements it and runs it. He does not do the best job so far (was going to say poor job but willing to give time) and often is out adjusted during games. The fact he lets his d get out leveraged/flanked pre snap is a sign of poor coaching at any level. Add in his actual position coaching has been poor then it gets worse. His play calling and tendencies were so limited and predictable last year teams knew exactly what was coming and even opponents said so. Has that been better this year, yes so far. He did well with running more zone against uga vs cover 1 and it worked but again he let his guys get out leveraged pre snap and more often than he should does not put the players in the best position to succeed. His pressures definitely leave a lot more to be desired.

With that said, Sabb has not helped himself either year as far as reading and reacting and made d look bad at times and other d last year as well and that seems mostly better this year so far. D line coaching is not helping either along with just not recruiting well there for years. The edge rushers on paper should be better but hard to judge other than they haven’t produced under him. Injuries stacking up this year don’t help. He is not a bad DC but is avg to decent but he is not the level that Bama has mostly had in a lifetime. Under CKD we might have to just adjust as a base mentally and know we might not have an elite DC here under CKD. Would I like a different DC yes, will he be decent enough to win a championship? I don’t think so unless it’s a 2020 type of offense.

Sabb has been incredibly bad at setting the edge. He gets leveraged almost every time on the edge.

I don't understand why this can't be corrected in film study sessions.

If not, who's behind him that could do any worse???

 

[BamaMoon]

Some other noteworthy stats from last years game. Pavia converted 13/18 on third down (66.7%).
Also TOP: 42 minutes for Vandy and 17minutes for Bama.

That cannot happen this year.

13/18 on 3rd down, as we just witnessed Ty do last week, will get you beat.

I know he was magical last year. Can he do that again this year???

But, there's no way we can allow them to control the TOP that way either. Last year, we were more boom or bust, but this year, we are showing we can put 10-14 play drives together.

Basically, if we improve on both of those stats, we ought to win by multiple scores.

 

[colbysullivan]

13/18 on 3rd down, as we just witnessed Ty do last week, will get you beat.

I know he was magical last year. Can he do that again this year???

But, there's no way we can allow them to control the TOP that way either. Last year, we were more boom or bust, but this year, we are showing we can put 10-14 play drives together.

Basically, if we improve on both of those stats, we ought to win by multiple scores.

3 and out was Milroe's specialty. I just don't see Ty laying an egg on offense. I am terrified about our defense though.

 

[Con]

I listened to a little bit of Wommack's press conference from the UGA game and according to him execution is the problem. He says we've got players not fitting the right gaps, not setting the edge, not holding containment, etc. So in a way he was defending his scheme and saying the players need to execute better. I will say there's probably a lot of truth to that, but I also wonder does the scheme have inherent blindspots in it that make it hard for the players to do what he's saying they need to do?

Our #1 (Jackson) got caught inside multiple times then tried to get back outside to hold contain. He messed up quite a bit with regard to turning things in, because nobody else was out there to do it.

 

[Lifer]

THIS IS A GREAT THREAD!

 

[day-day]

Some other noteworthy stats from last years game. Pavia converted 13/18 on third down (66.7%).
Also TOP: 42 minutes for Vandy and 17minutes for Bama.

That cannot happen this year.

Vanderbilt was 12/18 on 3rd down...

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Sabb has been incredibly bad at setting the edge. He gets leveraged almost every time on the edge.

I don't understand why this can't be corrected in film study sessions.

If not, who's behind him that could do any worse???

Domani was taking really bad angles and was getting beat around the edges. Perhaps because of where he was lined up...?

I hope Wommack fixes this.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973401986918666695

 

[CoolBreeze]

THIS IS A GREAT THREAD!

Agreed, best one on the board. I just think we are going to smoke these guys man. Yea, they are good and yea, we got it handed to us earlier this year with a similar scheme. But we were a laughing stock after putting vandy on the radar last year. It was their coming out party and we paid the price for it. I just think we have a way better team and our players and staff have a point to make in this game.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Pavia's latest quote about the game.

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-fo...play-our-game-it-wont-be-close-151315403.html

 

[mlh]

Agreed, best one on the board. I just think we are going to smoke these guys man. Yea, they are good and yea, we got it handed to us earlier this year with a similar scheme. But we were a laughing stock after putting vandy on the radar last year. It was their coming out party and we paid the price for it. I just think we have a way better team and our players and staff have a point to make in this game.

I hope we beat them as badly as we can. Jump out to an early lead and never take our foot off the gas. I hope we hang 60 on these bozos.

 

[JDCrimson]

I think with the transfer portal and NIL the Shane Falcos of the last 6-7 years will see a revival in this era.

If Im the Vandy, Duke, MSU of CF I am scouring the roles of all players who left the game with unused eligibility, UDFA players and rebuild my roster with 22-28 year old players.

 

[gtgilbert]

We completely disagree.

75% completion rate on 24 passes is outstanding. 310 yards on 24 passes is 13 ypa, again outstanding.

His 1 int was a well thrown ball that hit his receiver in a catchable position. It’s possible it was DPI. in any case it was a fluke that popped up in the air.

The fumble was not an automatic TD, Vandy has 53 yards to go. That is on the D. The fumble was as much on the RT as Jalen. He never saw the rusher. But the D had plenty of time to stop them.

So, yes it is revisionist to say that Jalen played a “terrible” game. 18-24 310. 35 pts, 1 int not on him, 1 fumble shared with RT.

The vitriol by some is palpable, IMO, it stinks up the board. You just feel the hatred, it’s unpleasant. I don’t even read half of the posts but it seems like some will never let it go. It seems there is more than football involved.

Well, I agree with TnR. he-who-won't-be-named (HWWBN) was horrible and this game is the perfect illustration of why. The best analogy I can think of is he is a baseball player who either hits a home run on the first pitch, or strikes out in 3 so he doesn't even help wear out the pitcher. Almost half our drives against Vandy were 3 or 4 plays and out. We possessed the ball for less than 20 minutes. Even our scoring drives were extremely short with (I think) only one over 3:30, because of the over reliance on the big play. It was a huge weight dragging down the team the entire year.

The INT! that was 100% on HWWBN.

Why?
1). he stared the receiver down the entire time.
2). He was late, and off schedule with the ball.

Those two things led the defender to the spot, and gave him lots of time to make up the ground to get there. To be successful on that route, the ball must arrive right as the WR stops and turns in the break so the defender can't get there. That did not happen on this throw and it wasn't even close. Some of us had been calling out HWWBN late delivery even just watching practices throwing against air, and had predicted that late delivery would result in interceptions, and low and behold here is proof.

so yeah, the offense scored 35, but he gave 14 back. The D only allowed 26 really - still too many, but given they go no time to regroup due to the O misfiring so often, not totally surprising. Even if you put the TD from the fumble on the D, we win without the horrendous throw and pick 6.