Trump Attacks Iran, IV

I think too many make the assumption that the IR of Iran operates purely off of religious fanaticism. It’s really far more complicated than that.

It’s more of a military hierarchy than a cleric state. They push the religious part to create an existential issue more than to promote their version of Islam. Iran is the main Shia nation in the world and is constantly attacked by Sunnis for being non Muslims and are constantly targeted by the west for exploitation. They aren’t this backwatered country like Afghanistan in which we are literally watching the 10th century play out everyday. They are a 90 million people state in which they have far more modern institutions, utilities, and access to certain things. A military state would crumble in seconds, so it’s a married state between the military and religious figures.

I think the problem is that we have underestimated Iran and viewed them as savages instead of trying to understand why they do the things they do. The country of Iran is full of far more good and non fanatical people than it is of people like the IRGC. However these stupid attacks that we let Israel talk us into have made the IRGC look far more credible in their constant fear mongering so we may have missed our chance to make real change in a country that truly needs it.

When I lived in Omaha, I knew a woman who headed the Middle Eastern studies program at U of Neb-Omaha. This was maybe 10 years ago or more. She would sponsor educational trips to Iran every year. I was always too busy to go, but I would love to visit the country one day.

She said that the average Iranian you meet on the street will tell you that they love Americans. It is the government and the mullahs that keep the "Death To America" meme going. And we feed into it by stuff like is happening now in the Persian Gulf.

We need to get rid of this current bunch of amateurs and rid our govt of MAGA completely. They are a pox on our country's reputation and legacy. Putrid. Vile. I can't think of anything positive to say about the entire movement.
 
I think too many make the assumption that the IR of Iran operates purely off of religious fanaticism. It’s really far more complicated than that.

It’s more of a military hierarchy than a cleric state. They push the religious part to create an existential issue more than to promote their version of Islam. Iran is the main Shia nation in the world and is constantly attacked by Sunnis for being non Muslims and are constantly targeted by the west for exploitation. They aren’t this backwatered country like Afghanistan in which we are literally watching the 10th century play out everyday. They are a 90 million people state in which they have far more modern institutions, utilities, and access to certain things. A military state would crumble in seconds, so it’s a married state between the military and religious figures.

I think the problem is that we have underestimated Iran and viewed them as savages instead of trying to understand why they do the things they do. The country of Iran is full of far more good and non fanatical people than it is of people like the IRGC. However these stupid attacks that we let Israel talk us into have made the IRGC look far more credible in their constant fear mongering so we may have missed our chance to make real change in a country that truly needs it.
A pretty good analysis. I'd add that the military keeps the clerics in nice, comfortable berths, financially and otherwise...
 
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When I lived in Omaha, I knew a woman who headed the Middle Eastern studies program at U of Neb-Omaha. This was maybe 10 years ago or more. She would sponsor educational trips to Iran every year. I was always too busy to go, but I would love to visit the country one day.

She said that the average Iranian you meet on the street will tell you that they love Americans. It is the government and the mullahs that keep the "Death To America" meme going. And we feed into it by stuff like is happening now in the Persian Gulf.

We need to get rid of this current bunch of amateurs and rid our govt of MAGA completely. They are a pox on our country's reputation and legacy. Putrid. Vile. I can't think of anything positive to say about the entire movement.

The government is basically a Revolutionary government. The problem is that revolutions end after power is achieved and you can’t just keep saying “we are better options than what you have” when you are in power. So the “death to America” and Shia propaganda is more about justifying a continued revolutionary and military government than the promotion of actual intentions. Ali tried to start normalizing talks with the west in the 2nd half of his reign because he probably knew the real crazies in the military would screw everything up if they got their way. The military has alot of say in the government but in the past the Ayatollah and his number 2 guys could put down the most insane proposals. Now I fear they have far more control than they have ever.

I think had we done nothing, the regime would have fallen after Ali died. Mostly because there wasn’t a uniting figurehead. We are currently seeing a fight for control right now that is at the moment centering around the military. I fear the Iranian military will seek measures to continue this war indefinitely to make sure they maintain control. I think there is a credible assumption that the Ayatollah may be dead, seriously injured, or being held hostage by the IRGC heads in order to maintain control until a better ruler can assert control.

Trump fumbled this and I don’t think there is a way out that is good for us. Trump gambled on civil unrest to bringing regime change. The problem is that once you start bombing government buildings, military bases, and girls schools you kinda justify the anti west and anti Israeli propaganda that the regime based its entire existence on. I think hope that something changes within the Iranian government is probably the best solution. But I’m less optimistic that 1) that it happens soon and 2) it’s not a radical taking power.
 
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As I've said before, I don't think the average American has any idea of the depth of the hole Trump has dug for us...

Well most Americans think Iran is basically Afghanistan or Iraq. The problem is that they are not.

I think Tucker Carlson’s undressing of Ted Cruz is probably the image of what the average American’s understanding of Iran is. We think we are fighting a backwatered group of Arab raiders with a limitless military capability. But we are really fighting a Persian military structure that is capable of making our military capabilities have serious issues. Again I can’t stress enough they are a country of 90 million population and an advanced military and modern cities. Invading it was well out of the question from the start so you are limited to an air or naval war which is proving ineffective and costly.

I just don’t see us winning in any sense that it ever justifies us going in.
 
I've been waiting for this. Only a fool (or a whole ship of them) couldn't see it coming...
So now, North of 30% of the world's petroleum is effectively blockade?

Look you dont do something like this just because you are stupid. There is a larger motive at play, geopolitical profit, something, shaking the US piggybank, something.

Trump is a traitor of the highest order.
 
First and foremost I believe this is Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war. Trump only did this because of midterm elections and Netanyahu wanted cover for his invasion into the West Bank and Lebanon. I think both miscalculated the strength of the IRGC’s resolve and probably created a worse scenario than what we have had since the Iraq-Iran War. Both Trump and Netanyahu had assessed civil unrest in Tehran and applied the “rickety shack” analogy to it without considering worst case scenarios.

Not to pick or bash, but there is simply a reason that when I see posts about the Arabs condemning Iran or “joining militarily” I roll my eyes. And it’s because every time they need to cowboy up they hide behind their desert palace walls. The only one with the guts to take on the Iranians was Sadaam. EVERY other Arab country refused to aid him while publicly condemning Iran as a hostile and fanatical state towards Sunni and Arab countries. So why should i expect that the Gulf states are going to go to war with Iran now when they are militarily more stronger now than they were back in the 80’s? So Israel and the United States are in this alone.

But the bigger issue is that it seems that Iran has two competing factions within the IRGC that are fighting for control. We have one that sees diplomacy through strength as a method while the other wants to keep exploiting their military advantages on the situation to enforce their will on the region. We really don’t know who is winning the fight mostly because we honestly don’t know if the Ayatollah is truly alive or in a position to lead. So right now we have to assume Iran is being ran by the military and that’s not a good thing. Especially when you consider that the Ayatollah we just killed had devoted much of his last 10 years trying to put more moderate voices in higher places of government only for us and Israel to kill them. So really the fanatics and inexperienced are starting to control over key government and military positions.

The fact that they can indefinitely close the strait of Hormuz with ease is a scary sign of things to come. We can talk about bombings and a limited invasion of Kharg Island all we want but neither are going to bring the crazies to the table when they know drones are more effective and cost effective in closing waterways than a fleet of battleships.
 
I'm conservative as the day is long, bordering on libertarian in some aspects, and if you've read my posts you know that. Saying that this Iran war/military action is the dumbest thing I've seen in a long time. It may be dumber than Biden's pull out of Afghanistan, the question still remains how much he knew of what was actually happening, but it was his administration.

Who in the world was siting in the room when this Iran thing was dreamed up? Was there no one there to explain that the only way to deal with the Iranian regime was to either kill them all and launch a full scale invasion, and by kill them all I mean the entire leadership, military, IRGC, and the majority of the fighting age men. The Big Red One, The First Armored Division, the 82nd and 101st Airborne, The Old Breed, too name a few, and the rest of our elite special forces units would have to roll into Tehran and blow the entire place up. Then you would need to occupy it for years, and no one wants to do that. The cost in blood from just our service members alone would be way more than we could bear. Then you throw in the cost, and dear Lord the casualties the Iranian people would take. It would easily be in the millions if not 10 million. It would be enormous. It's simply not something we should do in any capacity.

Your other option is leave them alone. Understand they will bluster and boast and just ignore the idiots. If they do ever get a bomb and use it then all bets are off. It could be really bad, but that is something you would have to weigh the outcomes of.

A third and probably best option is to monitor what they are doing and if necessary drop a bomb on some specific target to delay their nuclear capability if you absolutely have to. You include your allies in the Middle East and Europe on this. You don't necessarily tell the day and time and tactical details, but you develop a plan that they know could be executed and all parties are aware of a general stance. Think what was done with the B-2's a while back. You understand you can't destroy all their capacity, but you slow it when absolutely necessary.

We aren't dealing with sane actors. They are as talked about above very similar to the Japanese in WW2. I think they are even more fanatical if really want the truth of it. It all boils down to the version of Islam they are adhering to. It's as radical a form as there is. This leads them to not make the same sane decisions that most other countries would make. They don't care about the economy of Iran. They don't care about the citizens of the country, and in many cases the leadership and IRGC don't care about their own lives either. You kill one guy another one just steps into his shoes and continues the same policies and actions.

They don't think like us or look at the world like we do. This means we can't deal with them like we dealt with Venezuela or even the old USSR. They don't live in that world. The people of Iran can't overthrow the government even if they wanted to do so. They will just kill them in the streets by the tens of thousands if necessary. If you don't understand your adversary you can't properly deal with them. This isn't just a Trump problem. Obama and Biden thought they could reason with them and give them money and make nice. They tried to go in the other direction. They aren't your friend and they never will be. They hate us and want to see us all dead or converted to their brand of Islam. That's the only thing they understand, violence and force, and if you go hard at them you have to be ready to go all the way and stack the bodies, and I don't want to do that. Iraq and Afghanistan showed us you can't Westernize a people that at their heart don't want or share Western values. It's a square peg and a round hole. So stop trying to slam the wrong peg in the wrong hole. My God it's just not that hard to figure out. Islam isn't the friend of the left or the right in American political terms. They want us all dead or converted. They are willing to die and see the populations of their country decimated to stay true to the ideology.

I want to revisit the suggestion of invasion, nuclear weapons, or leave them alone. What isn’t being talked about is scarier than all 3 options and would make a larger humanitarian crisis that we haven’t seen since Mao’s Great Leap Forward. If pressed too much Iran could start targeting the Gulf States’s desalination plants. If successful you could potentially create a situation in which 24-48 million people would be without access to water resources within a week. So with all the threats the draft dodger is making about hitting Iran’s civil services I would point out for the most part they haven’t pulled out a strategy that could inflict more damage than any two nuclear weapons combined could.

My point is that WWII strategies aren’t going to work here. This war is far too complicated and has the potential to have some serious consequences if things aren’t worked out more strategically and the escalation keeps going up.
 
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