Trump Attacks Iran, IV

[Its On A Slab]

I think too many make the assumption that the IR of Iran operates purely off of religious fanaticism. It’s really far more complicated than that.

It’s more of a military hierarchy than a cleric state. They push the religious part to create an existential issue more than to promote their version of Islam. Iran is the main Shia nation in the world and is constantly attacked by Sunnis for being non Muslims and are constantly targeted by the west for exploitation. They aren’t this backwatered country like Afghanistan in which we are literally watching the 10th century play out everyday. They are a 90 million people state in which they have far more modern institutions, utilities, and access to certain things. A military state would crumble in seconds, so it’s a married state between the military and religious figures.

I think the problem is that we have underestimated Iran and viewed them as savages instead of trying to understand why they do the things they do. The country of Iran is full of far more good and non fanatical people than it is of people like the IRGC. However these stupid attacks that we let Israel talk us into have made the IRGC look far more credible in their constant fear mongering so we may have missed our chance to make real change in a country that truly needs it.

When I lived in Omaha, I knew a woman who headed the Middle Eastern studies program at U of Neb-Omaha. This was maybe 10 years ago or more. She would sponsor educational trips to Iran every year. I was always too busy to go, but I would love to visit the country one day.

She said that the average Iranian you meet on the street will tell you that they love Americans. It is the government and the mullahs that keep the "Death To America" meme going. And we feed into it by stuff like is happening now in the Persian Gulf.

We need to get rid of this current bunch of amateurs and rid our govt of MAGA completely. They are a pox on our country's reputation and legacy. Putrid. Vile. I can't think of anything positive to say about the entire movement.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I think too many make the assumption that the IR of Iran operates purely off of religious fanaticism. It’s really far more complicated than that.

It’s more of a military hierarchy than a cleric state. They push the religious part to create an existential issue more than to promote their version of Islam. Iran is the main Shia nation in the world and is constantly attacked by Sunnis for being non Muslims and are constantly targeted by the west for exploitation. They aren’t this backwatered country like Afghanistan in which we are literally watching the 10th century play out everyday. They are a 90 million people state in which they have far more modern institutions, utilities, and access to certain things. A military state would crumble in seconds, so it’s a married state between the military and religious figures.

I think the problem is that we have underestimated Iran and viewed them as savages instead of trying to understand why they do the things they do. The country of Iran is full of far more good and non fanatical people than it is of people like the IRGC. However these stupid attacks that we let Israel talk us into have made the IRGC look far more credible in their constant fear mongering so we may have missed our chance to make real change in a country that truly needs it.

A pretty good analysis. I'd add that the military keeps the clerics in nice, comfortable berths, financially and otherwise...

 

[81usaf92]

When I lived in Omaha, I knew a woman who headed the Middle Eastern studies program at U of Neb-Omaha. This was maybe 10 years ago or more. She would sponsor educational trips to Iran every year. I was always too busy to go, but I would love to visit the country one day.

She said that the average Iranian you meet on the street will tell you that they love Americans. It is the government and the mullahs that keep the "Death To America" meme going. And we feed into it by stuff like is happening now in the Persian Gulf.

We need to get rid of this current bunch of amateurs and rid our govt of MAGA completely. They are a pox on our country's reputation and legacy. Putrid. Vile. I can't think of anything positive to say about the entire movement.

The government is basically a Revolutionary government. The problem is that revolutions end after power is achieved and you can’t just keep saying “we are better options than what you have” when you are in power. So the “death to America” and Shia propaganda is more about justifying a continued revolutionary and military government than the promotion of actual intentions. Ali tried to start normalizing talks with the west in the 2nd half of his reign because he probably knew the real crazies in the military would screw everything up if they got their way. The military has alot of say in the government but in the past the Ayatollah and his number 2 guys could put down the most insane proposals. Now I fear they have far more control than they have ever.

I think had we done nothing, the regime would have fallen after Ali died. Mostly because there wasn’t a uniting figurehead. We are currently seeing a fight for control right now that is at the moment centering around the military. I fear the Iranian military will seek measures to continue this war indefinitely to make sure they maintain control. I think there is a credible assumption that the Ayatollah may be dead, seriously injured, or being held hostage by the IRGC heads in order to maintain control until a better ruler can assert control.

Trump fumbled this and I don’t think there is a way out that is good for us. Trump gambled on civil unrest to bringing regime change. The problem is that once you start bombing government buildings, military bases, and girls schools you kinda justify the anti west and anti Israeli propaganda that the regime based its entire existence on. I think hope that something changes within the Iranian government is probably the best solution. But I’m less optimistic that 1) that it happens soon and 2) it’s not a radical taking power.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

As I've said before, I don't think the average American has any idea of the depth of the hole Trump has dug for us...

 

[81usaf92]

As I've said before, I don't think the average American has any idea of the depth of the hole Trump has dug for us...

Well most Americans think Iran is basically Afghanistan or Iraq. The problem is that they are not.

I think Tucker Carlson’s undressing of Ted Cruz is probably the image of what the average American’s understanding of Iran is. We think we are fighting a backwatered group of Arab raiders with a limitless military capability. But we are really fighting a Persian military structure that is capable of making our military capabilities have serious issues. Again I can’t stress enough they are a country of 90 million population and an advanced military and modern cities. Invading it was well out of the question from the start so you are limited to an air or naval war which is proving ineffective and costly.

I just don’t see us winning in any sense that it ever justifies us going in.

 

[arthurdawg]

As I've said before, I don't think the average American has any idea of the depth of the hole Trump has dug for us...

And it is deeper every day...

 

[81usaf92]

Houthis block second strait

Well the inevitable happened with the Houthis getting involved. So now we are going see how brave the Saudis are

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Houthis block second strait

Well the inevitable happened with the Houthis getting involved. So now we are going see how brave the Saudis are

I've been waiting for this. Only a fool (or a whole ship of them) couldn't see it coming...

 

[81usaf92]

I've been waiting for this. Only a fool (or a whole ship of them) couldn't see it coming...

The only shocking thing is how long they waited

 

[JDCrimson]

As I've said before, I don't think the average American has any idea of the depth of the hole Trump has dug for us...

Im not we even appreciate that here either...

 

[JDCrimson]

I've been waiting for this. Only a fool (or a whole ship of them) couldn't see it coming...

So now, North of 30% of the world's petroleum is effectively blockade?

Look you dont do something like this just because you are stupid. There is a larger motive at play, geopolitical profit, something, shaking the US piggybank, something.

Trump is a traitor of the highest order.

 

[81usaf92]

First and foremost I believe this is Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war. Trump only did this because of midterm elections and Netanyahu wanted cover for his invasion into the West Bank and Lebanon. I think both miscalculated the strength of the IRGC’s resolve and probably created a worse scenario than what we have had since the Iraq-Iran War. Both Trump and Netanyahu had assessed civil unrest in Tehran and applied the “rickety shack” analogy to it without considering worst case scenarios.

Not to pick or bash, but there is simply a reason that when I see posts about the Arabs condemning Iran or “joining militarily” I roll my eyes. And it’s because every time they need to cowboy up they hide behind their desert palace walls. The only one with the guts to take on the Iranians was Sadaam. EVERY other Arab country refused to aid him while publicly condemning Iran as a hostile and fanatical state towards Sunni and Arab countries. So why should i expect that the Gulf states are going to go to war with Iran now when they are militarily more stronger now than they were back in the 80’s? So Israel and the United States are in this alone.

But the bigger issue is that it seems that Iran has two competing factions within the IRGC that are fighting for control. We have one that sees diplomacy through strength as a method while the other wants to keep exploiting their military advantages on the situation to enforce their will on the region. We really don’t know who is winning the fight mostly because we honestly don’t know if the Ayatollah is truly alive or in a position to lead. So right now we have to assume Iran is being ran by the military and that’s not a good thing. Especially when you consider that the Ayatollah we just killed had devoted much of his last 10 years trying to put more moderate voices in higher places of government only for us and Israel to kill them. So really the fanatics and inexperienced are starting to control over key government and military positions.

The fact that they can indefinitely close the strait of Hormuz with ease is a scary sign of things to come. We can talk about bombings and a limited invasion of Kharg Island all we want but neither are going to bring the crazies to the table when they know drones are more effective and cost effective in closing waterways than a fleet of battleships.