Bama is danged too often. Although you can renew in between visits one time.
2026 Midterms Discussion
- Thread starter Huckleberry
- Start date
Bama is danged too often. Although you can renew in between visits one time.
at what point does the panic set in
www.yahoo.com
Trump Approval Rating Tumbles To 32% InQuinnipiac Poll—Hitting New Low
Trump had a 32% approval rating in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.
Truman (1952), Nixon during Watergate, Dubya as his term ended, and Carter in the summer of 1979. (Ironically, the hostage crisis RAISED his ratings for awhile).
at what point does the panic set in
Trump Approval Rating Tumbles To 32% InQuinnipiac Poll—Hitting New Low
Trump had a 32% approval rating in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.
They’re standing on the Trumptanic after it hit the iceberg and they’re watching it fill with water and saying, “No need to panic, it’s unsinkable!”
One thing to remember - and I take this from consultants in both parties over the years: the "approval" rating doesn't "really" matter. Not really in and of itself, it doesn't. What matters is two related ideas:
1) the DISapproval rating
2) whether it is "hard" or "soft"
Ok and a third thing matters:
3) the wrong track number in the other poll
Obviously there's a relationship between approval and disapproval, but the bigger issue is whether the disapproval is "I don't like what this person's policies have been the last 12 months or at least most of them" or "I hate that politician, and I'll crawl over broken glass to vote against him." If you have a 45% approval with 51% disapproval (which would leave you with 4% undecided, IN THEORY you might be right at the middle (with the MOE and the "undecided") if a vote was to be held soon. People mislead themselves over this. Proof the approval rating means "not very much" is found in the fact that Ann Richards had a 60% favorability rating (people liked her) and just below a 50% approval rating - but she lost to George W. Bush.
The "wrong track" number is the most telling statistic out there in terms of predictive outcomes, but the question might not have the same relevance in a Congressional situation as it does for the White House.
Consider this:
Some 70% of registered voters in the poll said their cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65% said the same of immigration policy.
That, of course, is a Harris-Trump Poll from October 2024 that showed Kamala leading Trump by 3 points nationally.
The old school formula for wrong track numbers is:
50% is cause for concern
60% is an alarm bell
Anything above that - the incumbent better start looking for other work
Those numbers would not have been ANY better if Biden was on the ballot. In fact, they probably would have been worse because there would have been no offer of any kind of a different direction.
1) the DISapproval rating
2) whether it is "hard" or "soft"
Ok and a third thing matters:
3) the wrong track number in the other poll
Obviously there's a relationship between approval and disapproval, but the bigger issue is whether the disapproval is "I don't like what this person's policies have been the last 12 months or at least most of them" or "I hate that politician, and I'll crawl over broken glass to vote against him." If you have a 45% approval with 51% disapproval (which would leave you with 4% undecided, IN THEORY you might be right at the middle (with the MOE and the "undecided") if a vote was to be held soon. People mislead themselves over this. Proof the approval rating means "not very much" is found in the fact that Ann Richards had a 60% favorability rating (people liked her) and just below a 50% approval rating - but she lost to George W. Bush.
The "wrong track" number is the most telling statistic out there in terms of predictive outcomes, but the question might not have the same relevance in a Congressional situation as it does for the White House.
Consider this:
Some 70% of registered voters in the poll said their cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65% said the same of immigration policy.
That, of course, is a Harris-Trump Poll from October 2024 that showed Kamala leading Trump by 3 points nationally.
The old school formula for wrong track numbers is:
50% is cause for concern
60% is an alarm bell
Anything above that - the incumbent better start looking for other work
Those numbers would not have been ANY better if Biden was on the ballot. In fact, they probably would have been worse because there would have been no offer of any kind of a different direction.
Why panic when you probably plan to suspend elections anyway?at what point does the panic set in
Trump Approval Rating Tumbles To 32% InQuinnipiac Poll—Hitting New Low
Trump had a 32% approval rating in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.
And before you respond with no way that could pass muster, take a look at this admin's track record.
Good thing elections are state controlled, isn't it?
I'm sure he'll pass one of his paper weight executive orders and make arguments about it.
Thing is, I think he believes these EOs have some force. I think he's just that far into his own reality. The Iran war is being conducted on a delusional basis - "Maybe they'll do what we want, if we bomb them hard;" maybe they'll do what we want, if we quit bombing them." He's handling Congress on an unrealistic basis, with regard to the Blanche nomination and the SAVE act. I really do think he may well make some weak effort at a putsch. The numbers of troops he's moving into the capitol makes me nervous. I don't think it'll work, but, with the nincompoops he has advising him, who knows which way it'll head? I don't know what he really believes any more...
Earle, I believe he will put the military in position to have to choose their actions. I hate to sound alarmist, but look at his track record. He's planning on staying, whether by hook or crook.
He is an absolute clown, a clueless moron, and he thinks he was elected dictator. You see, he smart/everyone else dumb, and he's done all this stuff.
Seriously - about the only things this guy has done in 8 years that can't be overturned with the stroke of a pen on January 20, 2029 are:
- the SCOTUS nominees
- the 2017 tax cut
- the BBB (which proved his narcissism was terminal - narcs are obsessed with the word "beautiful"
- his foreign policy screwups in Iran
All of his "I signed an executive order" crap amounts to nothing.
State Sen. Jeremy Moss defeats left-wing candidate Aisha Farooqi in Michigan’s Democratic primary for the 11th Congressional District.
Rep. Wesley Bell defeats far-left DSA-endorsed former Rep. Cori Bush in the Democratic primary for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District.
This just proves Will Rogers's maxim: "I'm not part of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat."
November should be a tidal wave for Democrats, but they prove that they can't stop stepping on their Johnsons to save their life.
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