NL EAST - THE METS BECAUSE SOMEBODY HAS TO WIN IT
For the last decade, the New York Mets have been the perennial favorites in the NL East. Not bad for a franchise with as many pennants as the Minnesota Twins have World Series championships in the same time frame. The Mets are the favorites yet again this year, but the fortunate thing for them is that not only is the NL East now the weakest division in baseball, but nobody expects anyone to beat the Braves anyway, which means a first-place finish will be praised as an accomplishment.
1) New York Mets
You'd think a team that lost its best pitcher after a 72-90 year wouldn't be favored to win the division, but it only shows how weak the division is and how much the rest of the lineup is expected to compensate. It's an odd-numbered year, which means
Bret Saberhagen is likely to have a stellar season. The former two-time Cy Young winner (AL) has an incredible 74-30 record in odd numbered years, which includes both Cys, a World Series win and MVP, and a no-hitter. 1993 is an odd numered year, so Sabes is due to look like he should be Atlanta's third starter (and most every other team's ace).
Bobby Bonilla and
Vince Coleman return and hopes are high that
Jeff Kent, picked up in the trade that dumped
David Cone just ahead of free agency, can be an upgrade from the 38-year old (and now retired)
Willie Randolph. Throw in
Howard Johnson and longtime consisten producer
Eddie Murray, and the Mets may be able to produce a pennant winner given there's no pressure on them to do anything beyond.
2) St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals return the core starting lineup that got them 83 wins last year but with two changes as
Andres Galarraga and
Felix Jose are gone while
Gregg Jefferies and
Mark Whiten are in the lineup. Jefferies and Jose were traded for each other (Kansas City), and Galarraga was let go to the Rockies just prior to the expansion draft. The Cards also return ace
Bob Tewksbury and three pitchers capable of giving a decent number of starts with enough sufficiency to win close games:
Rheal Cormier, Donovan Osborne, and
Rene Arocha. Get a lead, take it to the ninth, and turn it over to
Lee Smith seems like a sound strategy. The plan has one major flaw:
Ray Lankford led the NL with 147 strikeouts last year and Whiten strikes out about as often. Hard to get a lead when you don't make contact. The veteran leadership of all-time shortstop
Ozzie Smith and Manager
Joe Torre, who has won before with minimal talent, means that with a few breaks the Cards can grab the flag.
3) Montreal Expos
There's a lot of talent on the field.
There's also a bit of controversy that may be enough to cost Montreal a serious run at the pennant.
The general consensus is that Montreal overachieved last year through the contributions of youngsters like
Marquis Grissom, Delino DeShields, and
Larry Walker as well as veterans such as
Dennis Martinez and
Gary Carter, and an ace closer in
John Wetteland. And how did that turn out? Carter retired at age 38 and will head to the Hall of Fame (good), but rumors abounded all winter long that Martinez was there for the taking if some team would just make the right offer. Put this against the backdrop of a team rarely shown on American television, the fact the dollar differential between countries makes players hesitant to go, and the ongoing Quebec Sovereignty Movement, and it will be amazing if the youngsters can block out all the distractions and have a decent year. Montreal has both a lot of talent - and a lot of ongoing drama - and it will depend on which prevails to see how they do.
4) Philadelphia Phillies
A team on the upswing, yes, Philly finished last in 1992, but there are glimmers of hope, too.
Curt Schilling had a breakthrough season (14-11, 2.35) and - well, sometimes -
Mitch Williams is able to close the deal. They added
Danny Jackson, a pitcher who has had several big moments in his career but hasn't gotten quite the recognition he would were he a Yankee. In the do-or-die Game 5 of the 1985 ALCS, Jackson threw a complete game shutout to keep KC's hopes alive. In do-or-die Game 5 in that year's World Series, he again threw a complete game and allowed just one run. He pitched very well in both starts in the 1990 NLCS (and the Reds won both games), although his two post-season starts since then were nothing to write home about. And he went 23-8 in 1988 but nobody remembers it because his name wasn't
Orel Hershiser. Jackson is basically a .500 career pitcher, but the guy he's replacing (
Kyle Abbott) was 1-14 last year. If Jackson could just go 9-9 (and there's no reason he can't) and the Phils can get some substantial progress from the two pitchers they got from Atlanta,
Tommy Greene and
Ben Rivera, the Phils can contend. The everyday lineup is pretty much the same, and with a few breaks, they could actually win the division.
5) Chicago Cubs
Chicago's recipe for success following a 78-84 campaign APPARENTLY is:
a) let your best pitcher (
Maddux) leave due to free agency because he sees you're not a contender
b) lose your best player and franchise foundation for who knows how long due to a broken finger to start the season (
Ryne Sandberg)
c) let the guy who was #2 on your team in homers (
Andre Dawson) leave to free agency
d) leave your best catcher unprotected and lose him in the expansion draft (
Joe Girardi)
e) employ the worst defensive outfield in baseball (
Candy Maldonado, Willie Wilson, Sammy Sosa)
f) replace all these guys without spending money except to overpay for a pitcher (
Jose Guzman) who has been a cut below a la David Cone his entire career
The Cubs won't win the division. They won't come close.
The only reason they aren't picked for last is because there's an expansion team and whatever is left after that nuke finishes smoldering in Pittsburgh
6) Pittsburgh Pirates
The steel industry is dead and so are the Bucs. Spare me what a great leader
Jim Leyland supposedly is, this team is dead and buried and needs to be thanking their Supreme Being this is an expansion year.
To be fair, it's not ALL Leyland's fault or even that of the organization. Pittsburgh rose from the ashes of the
1985 drug trials and its concurrent 104-loss season to three straight division titles, two in which they were not really challenged much. But take a look at what they lost from those titles:
1990 - starting first baseman
Sid Bream, reserve infielder
Rafael Belliard (both...to Atlanta)
1991 - starters
Bobby Bonilla and
Steve Buechele, 20-game winner John Smiley
1992 - starting second baseman
Jose Lind, Cy Young winner
Doug Drabek, MVP
Barry Bonds
All you'd need is a centerfielder and you have the parts right there for a division champion with two solid starters. THAT is what is missing from Pittsburgh heading into 1993. All that's really left from their championship years are two good players (
Jay Bell,
Andy Van Slyke), two pitchers who had a career year and flamed out otherwise (
Zane Smith,
Randy Tomlin), a young player who may do well (
Orlando Merced), and a young pitcher thought to have a good future who is going to get saddled with hard luck losses pitching for a bad team (
Denny Neagle). This team CAN'T win a pennant, WON'T win a pennant, and may well finish last. Except for.
7) Florida Marlins
This is a gimme, right? Expansion teams finishing last? It usually happens. When it doesn't, it's because you have two expansion teams and only one can finish in last (1961 AL, 1962 NL, 1969 AL West). Otherwise, expansion teams finish last. But not so fast my friend!! The Marlins MIGHT - I said MIGHT - finish 6th or, with a tiny bit of luck, 5th.
This is not the old days of expansion. The draft enables teams to not start quite so far behind nowadays, and Florida's owner is one of the richest guys in the world. Their infield includes a former Rookie of the Year (
Walt Weiss), a three-time Gold Glove catcher (
Benito Santiago), former Golden Spikes winner in college who hasn't panned out but then again he was with the Mets so it's expected (
Dave Magadan), a 3-time leader in Japan in home runs (
Orestes Destrade), and a youngster who won a gold medal in 1988 but hasn't had the chance to start full-time yet (
Brett Barberie). Unfortunately, the outfield is a hitter who can't field (
Jeff Conine), a base stealer who can't hit (
Chuck Carr), and one of three guys who can't cut the starting lineup elsewhere. Plus, their closer is the "probably not gonna play at an elite level again" former Angel
Bryan Harvey. And not to pick on their manager but
Rene Lachemann has done no better leading a team than he did making errors for them in his 118-game big league career. Let's face it: even though I'm skeptical that Leyland is as good as his press clippings, even I know Leyland is far better than Lachemann.