News Article: A Mathematician predicts our current political situation and maybe the next Civil War?

[Ldlane]

When I was an International Affairs student at FSU I had the pleasure of meeting and listening to a scholar at the time named Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and I also read his book "The War Trap". Basically he was able to create a mathematical model based on a countries expected "utility". I sort of got hooked on these models.

This guy has supposedly created another mathematical model that is also predicting our future.

A decade ago, this scientist predicted 2020 would bring 'peak' chaos to the U.S.

Can researchers use data science to accurately predict the future?

bigthink.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I think I liked "decolonization" better...

 

[Ldlane]

I think I liked "decolonization" better...

Math not really my bag either!

 

[81usaf92]

Yeah these neo confederate patriots are going to last more than 2 hours vs nukes from the Midwest, reaper drones from the South West, and armor divisions... The last time we had a civil war there wasn't much difference between a soldier and a farmer in terms of arsenal. Unless something drastically happens within the military in which a general decides to lead an army towards Washington, then a civil war is mathematically unlikely. I can see the United States balkanizing, but I really dont see us in a full fledged war between the states unless something absolutely crazy happens.

 

[Ldlane]

it's all based on Game Theory:

 

[TexasBama]

Tell me what outcome you want and I’ll make a mathematical model this afternoon to predict it.

This seems to be a variation of Strauss’s generational theory. The historical trends seem pretty obvious, and I think at least some of these outcomes have been predicted here on NS. I don’t think this is some grand “Aha!”. Hari Seldon’s legacy is safe.

 

[Ldlane]

Tell me what outcome you want and I’ll make a mathematical model this afternoon to predict it.

This seems to be a variation of Strauss’s generational theory. The historical trends seem pretty obvious, and I think at least some of these outcomes have been predicted here on NS. I don’t think this is some grand “Aha!”. Hari Seldon’s legacy is safe.

It's a nice break from discussing Covid!

 

[B1GTide]

Hari Seldon’s legacy is safe.

Bravo!

 

[81usaf92]

It's a nice break from discussing Covid!

I didn't know we were back to discussing COVID... I thought for the past two weeks we were talking about protesters vs police, statues of really bad dudes, gas prices, and why the South was right and the Lincolnite history is wrong.

 

[Ldlane]

I didn't know we were back to discussing COVID... I thought for the past two weeks we were talking about protesters vs police, statues of really bad dudes, gas prices, and why the South was right and the Lincolnite history is wrong.

Guess I haven't scrolled down enough to see those!

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Tell me what outcome you want and I’ll make a mathematical model this afternoon to predict it.

This seems to be a variation of Strauss’s generational theory. The historical trends seem pretty obvious, and I think at least some of these outcomes have been predicted here on NS. I don’t think this is some grand “Aha!”. Hari Seldon’s legacy is safe.

I actually thought of Strauss too. However, it's not necessary to invent a new theory. Astrology will do...

 

[TexasBama]

I actually thought of Strauss too. However, it's not necessary to invent a new theory. Astrology will do...

Iirc Bobstod had posted about Strauss in years past.

I endeared myself once to an HR type when I suggested horoscopes in lieu of Meyers-Briggs

 

[Ldlane]

I actually thought of Strauss too. However, it's not necessary to invent a new theory. Astrology will do...

I think I was banned during that for insinuating people were racist. So I missed it! But Randy and Stacie and I are still good friends!

 

[92tide]

I didn't know we were back to discussing COVID... I thought for the past two weeks we were talking about protesters vs police, statues of really bad dudes, gas prices, and why the South was right and the Lincolnite history is wrong.

you left out decolonization

 

[bigjue24]

Yeah these neo confederate patriots are going to last more than 2 hours vs nukes from the Midwest, reaper drones from the South West, and armor divisions... The last time we had a civil war there wasn't much difference between a soldier and a farmer in terms of arsenal. Unless something drastically happens within the military in which a general decides to lead an army towards Washington, then a civil war is mathematically unlikely. I can see the United States balkanizing, but I really dont see us in a full fledged war between the states unless something absolutely crazy happens.

There will be no formal war between the states. The type of civil war the US had in 1865 isn’t how they are done now. It’s a non traditional guerilla type warfare with violence and skirmishing a n major cities mostly. Think Northern Ireland not Lee vs Grant. This is very possible and the US military will be hard pressed to stop it. This is will be how the far left Marxists continue to disrupt the country. Neo confederates won’t be fighting this war Marxists will.

 

[81usaf92]

There will be no formal war between the states. The type of civil war the US had in 1865 isn’t how they are done now. It’s a non traditional guerilla type warfare with violence and skirmishing a n major cities mostly. Think Northern Ireland not Lee vs Grant. This is very possible and the US military will be hard pressed to stop it. This is will be how the far left Marxists continue to disrupt the country. Neo confederates won’t be fighting this war Marxists will.

Yeah that would be called domestic terrorism, and not a competent movement capable of breaking from or taking over the United States.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Yeah that would be called domestic terrorism, and not a competent movement capable of breaking from or taking over the United States.

A Civil War is not happening. Any talk of it is just fear mongering. There would have to be some Designated Survivor type stuff for anything like that to happen. and even then it wouldn't be much of a "war".

 

[81usaf92]

A Civil War is not happening. Any talk of it is just fear mongering. There would have to be some Designated Survivor type stuff for anything like that to happen. and even then it wouldn't be much of a "war".

Yeah these groups that everyone is worried about are fringe at best groups, and they cant even agree on what their goals and beliefs are amongst each other.

 

[MattinBama]

It Could Happen Here podcast. Would be worth a listen for the people that swear it is impossible.

Civil war wouldn’t look like the last one. In parts of the country you may not would even know much was going on. All the multiple groups with different goals & ideas is part of the issue - it’s how you end up like Syria & the Balkans.

 

[81usaf92]

It Could Happen Here podcast. Would be worth a listen for the people that swear it is impossible.

Civil war wouldn’t look like the last one. In parts of the country you may not would even know much was going on. All the multiple groups with different goals & ideas is part of the issue - it’s how you end up like Syria & the Balkans.

Smaller third world countries with a lot of major ethnic groups with clear and organized goals. The United States is too large and too rich of a country to really compare to Syria or the Balkans.

Plus our fringe groups are way too unorganized to pull it off. For example we really don’t have a universal opinion on what the overall goal of the alt right movement is other than whites and the far right should run A country, which country and how they is achieved is muddy across the ranks.