Alabama QB competition article

[Bamabuzzard]

I'm a big Hurts supporter in that I think he did about as well as anyone could expect given the circumstances (teenager that still needed some development thrust into starting under three different offensive coordinators, all the pressure, etc...). I think he's still somewhat underappreciated by some, and that the whole Tua would have won every game as a true freshman if he'd just started from day 1 narrative is a bit of a stretch and somewhat disrespectful to Hurts. We know Tua developed as the season progressed, so we just don't know that the Tua that showed up against Georgia could have showed up earlier when needed. That's all speculative. The key thing though, is that Tua did get some time to develop on the sidelines, and what we saw in the Georgia game is a guy who seemed ready to step up and produce in big games (though it should be pointed out that Georgia probably didn't fully gameplan for Tua).

So, I like Hurts, I still think he could be a great college quarterback. He could be on a college campus for three more years, so we haven't seen the ending on that. Furthermore, it can't help Tua hold on the job to lose the OC who if nothing else could call plays that played to some of Tua's strengths, and with that he has to adjust to another OC (like Hurts already had to do twice). In addition, the injury is about the worst possible timing, as it was a setback while he should have been entrenching himself as the Alabama starter.

Having said all that, if Tua is healthy for Alabama's first game, I would be absolutely astounded if Tua isn't the starter. The thing is Hurts can get better, he can improve, but Tua doesn't have the deficiencies in his game that Hurts has. He proved he can attack downfield. Hurts would need to take a leap forward, or Tua would need to take a step backward for this to be a real conversation in my opinion.

I think BOTH would have to happen for Hurts to have a real shot at starting. This is assuming both are healthy .

 

[BamaMoon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdcKSP5nTN0 As described by Terrell Lewis and reported on a number of channels on April 9.

Saw this video, after watching that one: Drew DeArmond basically saying Jalen looked the same (good and bad) and that Tua continues to solidify the notion he's the best QB. He also says the only hope for Jalen fans to see him be the starter is if Tua gets hurt.

He also discusses the OL options and predicts with Tua playing QB that the running back will see at least 10 more runs per game next year. Basically a result of those runs not going to Jalen like the past two years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7cb0ILyw6k

 

[KrAzY3]

predicts with Tua playing QB that the running back will see at least 10 more runs per game next year. Basically a result of those runs not going to Jalen like the past two years.

The problem with that is Hurts pass attempts were way, way down under Daboll. He only attempted 254 passes (over 100 less than the year before) and Alabama was fairly run heavy. He actually ran the ball less as well, which was still a considerable 154 times.

The issue is that if Tua is the kind of passer he looks like he'll be, he's not just going to be handing off the whole time. To give an example, in his senior season, AJ passed the ball 336 times and ran it 34 times. I can't imagine Tua running less than AJ did (Tua ran the ball 27 time in limited play), but even if he ran the same amount, there's just not 10 more touches for running backs per game in there, it seems to me most of those "extra" touches are going to receivers.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

The problem with that is Hurts pass attempts were way, way down under Daboll. He only attempted 254 passes (over 100 less than the year before) and Alabama was fairly run heavy. He actually ran the ball less as well, which was still a considerable 154 times.

The issue is that if Tua is the kind of passer he looks like he'll be, he's not just going to be handing off the whole time. To give an example, in his senior season, AJ passed the ball 336 times and ran it 34 times. I can't imagine Tua running less than AJ did (Tua ran the ball 27 time in limited play), but even if he ran the same amount, there's just not 10 more touches for running backs per game in there, it seems to me most of those "extra" touches are going to receivers.

I'm sure I could look it up and find it somewhere and I will if no one has it but does anyone have the historical percentage breakdown of running plays and passing plays under Saban. Would be interesting to see under AJ vs under every other Saban QB.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

The problem with that is Hurts pass attempts were way, way down under Daboll. He only attempted 254 passes (over 100 less than the year before) and Alabama was fairly run heavy. He actually ran the ball less as well, which was still a considerable 154 times.

The issue is that if Tua is the kind of passer he looks like he'll be, he's not just going to be handing off the whole time. To give an example, in his senior season, AJ passed the ball 336 times and ran it 34 times. I can't imagine Tua running less than AJ did, but even if he ran the same amount, there's just not 10 more touches for running backs per game in there, it seems to me most of those "extra" touches are going to receivers.

Stuff like this is so tough to predict because each game and its circumstances can be so unique unto another game and its circumstances. This upcoming season the teams we face may very well be better pass defenders than run defenders. So the gameplan maybe a little more run heavy. Or, assuming Tua is QB, we may put several teams away with a handful of explosive passing plays by midway through the 3rd quarter. Then turn around and use the next QTR and half to basically bludgeon them to death with run heavy series, while eating up a ton of clock. Stuff like that tends to skew stats when looking at them in total.

I think the thing we know for sure about this year compared to last year, is with Tua at quarterback the full playbook is at the OC's disposal. That in and of itself should make all Bama fans giddy. I know it gives me tingles up the inside of my leg. :wink:

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

FWIW I assume the RBs will get at least a few more a game purely based on the QB reading RPOs differently.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

FWIW I assume the RBs will get at least a few more a game purely based on the QB reading RPOs differently.

I firmly believe the only way D. Harris returns for his Sr. season is he was convinced there would be a change made in our offensive approach. I know what he said to the media, the statement he issued publicly. But the body language captured by sideline cameras on more than one occasion last season during games brought me to believe he was as good as gone after this season. It's pure speculation on my part. But I have a hard time believing he would have returned knowing there would be more than a punchers chance of him returning to the same offense. I'm not saying CNS promised him anything. I'm just saying he was convinced there would be changes.

 

[CrimsonProf]

Aaron Suttles talking *right now* about how close UA came to losing Tua. Was told he'd play in Clemson game and he didn't, and it took until second half to play in NC game. Aaron asked if playing Jalen is worth losing Tua and he answers with an emphatic "no."


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Aaron Suttles talking *right now* about how close UA came to losing Tua. Was told he'd play in Clemson game and he didn't, and it took until second half to play in NC game. Aaron asked if playing Jalen is worth losing Tua and he answers with an emphatic "no."


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oh no doubt. Sports isn't about tip toeing around feelings and my guess is when it gets down to the rubber has to meet the road. Nick Saban will not consider feelings when making his decision. Sports has always been about what's best for team. Regardless of feelings and someone's pride. I've had both of mine hurt in playing sports before. It just makes you better, if you let it.

 

[BamaMoon]

Stuff like this is so tough to predict because each game and its circumstances can be so unique unto another game and its circumstances. This upcoming season the teams we face may very well be better pass defenders than run defenders. So the gameplan maybe a little more run heavy. Or, assuming Tua is QB, we may put several teams away with a handful of explosive passing plays by midway through the 3rd quarter. Then turn around and use the next QTR and half to basically bludgeon them to death with run heavy series, while eating up a ton of clock. Stuff like that tends to skew stats when looking at them in total.

I think the thing we know for sure about this year compared to last year, is with Tua at quarterback the full playbook is at the OC's disposal. That in and of itself should make all Bama fans giddy. I know it gives me tingles up the inside of my leg. :wink:

I firmly believe the only way D. Harris returns for his Sr. season is he was convinced there would be a change made in our offensive approach. I know what he said to the media, the statement he issued publicly. But the body language captured by sideline cameras on more than one occasion last season during games brought me to believe he was as good as gone after this season. It's pure speculation on my part. But I have a hard time believing he would have returned knowing there would be more than a punchers chance of him returning to the same offense. I'm not saying CNS promised him anything. I'm just saying he was convinced there would be changes.

I think the difference will be just an all around more NFL type of offensive approach. That's not saying there won't be some RPO, but I think our offense will look much more like it did with AJ than it did with Jalen.

I think there will be a lot more of taking what the defense gives than hiding from our QBs weaknesses and playing to our QBs strengths (as we did under Jalen the last two years).

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Aaron Suttles talking *right now* about how close UA came to losing Tua. Was told he'd play in Clemson game and he didn't, and it took until second half to play in NC game. Aaron asked if playing Jalen is worth losing Tua and he answers with an emphatic "no."


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It sounds like Najee struggled a bit with lack of playing time as well. If the 2nd half of the NCG was any indication then I would bet neither of them will have much to worry about this season. Especially with Jacobs' injury issues.

 

[KrAzY3]

Would be interesting to see under AJ vs under every other Saban QB.

Stuff like this is so tough to predict because each game and its circumstances can be so unique unto another game and its circumstances. This upcoming season the teams we face may very well be better pass defenders than run defenders. So the gameplan maybe a little more run heavy.

I can address both of these a little bit. Saban has stressed wanting balance between the running and passing game. Under Daboll it was basically the most lopsided it's been under Saban. I don't think he knew what to do with Hurts, or how to use Hurts really. So, the already lopsided aspects got worse. Alabama ran the ball more under Daboll last year than at any point under Saban.

Now, part of that is the pace of the offense, but let's compare that to AJ's last year:
Alabama had 28.1 passing attempts per game for 248 yards per game, and 35.5 rushing attempts for 205.6 yards per game. That's 63.6 plays on offense per game by the way.
Last year here's how things looked:
23.8 passing attempts per game for 193.4 yards and 43.7 rush attempts per game for 250.6 yards. That's 67.5 plays per game, which you can attribute to a faster pace of play.

The thing is, even if you just take those 3.9 extra plays per game and put them on top of the rushing attempts, it's still only 39.4. Might Alabama run the ball 42.9 times per game, which is the previous high? Sure, but that means .8 less rush attempts per game. How about Tua running less? Well, Tua ran the ball on 26% of his attempts. This means the same number of attempts as Hurts would equal 106 rushing attempts for Tua.

So, assuming a run heavy offense, we still have -.8 rushing attempts per game, and 48 more carries to go around. That's around 3 more carries per game for running backs. Basically, anyway I look at it Alabama would have to run the ball significantly more than they did under any other season with Saban to get 10 more rushes for running backs a game, I have no idea where the guy came up with that number but it's completely unrealistic. I'd expect rush attempts to go down and passing attempts to go up, with may be 2 or 3 more carries per game to running backs, if that.

To me the big takeaway from last year was the passing attempts per game dropped by 4 (due in large part to Daboll gutting a lot of shorter stuff), and this in turn limited the touches receivers had and understandably made them unhappy. I do fully expect them to get both better distribution and a more meaningful amount of passes.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

The good thing is that Bo had 124 carries last year that have to go somewhere. He was also way less effective than I think we expected and only averaged 4.8 yards/carry. So, our running game should be more effective simply based on Najee or Jacobs getting Bo's carries.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

For those who haven't seen it RollBamaRoll has a good breakdown of the QBs (I personally am a big fan of Erik Evans writing). Click here

It's a little funny because he does try to make the QB competition sound like a competition at times but then also says things like this.

There was never a doubt that Tua Tagovailoa was going to be special. How special is to be determined only by the opportunities presented to him and the occasions in which he is called upon. But if the first cal-up from the bullpen is any indication of future, he may leave the best-ever. The first chance that he had in meaningful play, he stepped on to the greatest stage in college football, stepped into the history books, and delivered a masterpiece.

He also said in the comment section that he isn't so sure Jalen is better than Mac. Calling Mac "REALLY REALLY good" from what he has seen in practice in the scrimmage. I'm sure some here have better insight than I do but I find that interesting.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

For those who haven't seen it RollBamaRoll has a good breakdown of the QBs (I personally am a big fan of Erik Evans writing). Click here

It's a little funny because he does try to make the QB competition sound like a competition at times but then also says things like this.


He also said in the comment section that he isn't so sure Jalen is better than Mac. Calling Mac "REALLY REALLY good" from what he has seen in practice in the scrimmage. I'm sure some here have better insight than I do but I find that interesting.

Here's another wildcard that is next to impossible to measure or predict. The degree of development of other players from last season to this season. Could it be that Mac has gotten bigger and stronger in the offseason as well as had a lot of what he learned last season start to "click"? Resulting in a big developmental leap to where he's no longer an after thought when talking about the quarterback rotation?

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Here's another wildcard that is next to impossible to measure or predict. The degree of development of other players from last season to this season. Could it be that Mac has gotten bigger and stronger in the offseason as well as had a lot of what he learned last season start to "click"? Resulting in a big developmental leap to where he's no longer an after thought when talking about the quarterback rotation?

Evans comments on Mac mixed with the report earlier about Mac throwing perfect balls in a drill (I believe he was throwing fades but can't remember now) are definitely interesting.

Is it A day yet?

 

[Intl.Aperture]

Here's another wildcard that is next to impossible to measure or predict. The degree of development of other players from last season to this season. Could it be that Mac has gotten bigger and stronger in the offseason as well as had a lot of what he learned last season start to "click"? Resulting in a big developmental leap to where he's no longer an after thought when talking about the quarterback rotation?

If Mac is that good and he already redshirted, were Tua to play the next 2 years and leave his junior year (SO MANY HYPOTHETICALS) Mac could have 2 years to himself to start, were he to stick around.

That's so far in the future, though, that I feel dumb for even bringing it up. I guess that's what the offseason is for.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

If Mac is that good and he already redshirted, were Tua to play the next 2 years and leave his junior year (SO MANY HYPOTHETICALS) Mac could have 2 years to himself to start, were he to stick around.

That's so far in the future, though, that I feel dumb for even bringing it up. I guess that's what the offseason is for.

It's still fun to talk about. I hope Mac has developed like that. It means we are even more secure at QB even if Jalen or Tua were to transfer.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Not going to lie though. I'm rooting hard for Paul Tyson to succeed. I don't think there would be anything cooler than him winning a Championship or 2 here as our starting QB. Or even a Heisman.

 

[Intl.Aperture]

Not going to lie though. I'm rooting hard for Paul Tyson to succeed. I don't think there would be anything cooler than him winning a Championship or 2 here as our starting QB. Or even a Heisman.

Winning a title with him as QB would give me LSD-like highs. I can't even imagine what that moment would feel like.