Before we give them too much credit consider these:
ANY top 40 program would start 5-0 w/ their schedule. They've beaten probably a top-half Sun Belt team and absolutely the worst SEC team (Vandy will run MSU off the field next week). They have WVU upcoming at home, and WVU is now a garbage fire. Ball State is one of the worst teams in America, and TN just lost to a subpar UCLA squad sporting a freshman QB not named Matt Barkley in Neyland Stadium. Crompton can't throw a dime in the ocean, much less hit the broad side of a barn. Tennessee's pathetic. Auburn should be able to sleepwalk to 5-0 barring catastrophic injuries.
If AU isn't 5-0 going into Ark, then they can aspire for the Independence Bowl as a "reach" goal. They'll carry an unblemished record and a #22 ranking into Arkansas thinking all is well with the world only to be brought crashing back to reality with a ten point loss. At 5-1 they won't panic. Dropping out of the top 25 will be a minor setback, and their fans will site the hackneyed "it's almost impossible to win back-to-back road weeks in the SEC" excuse.
They'll beat UK at home to become bowl-eligible. They'll declare Chizik and Malzahn invincible geniuses. Then they'll drop consecutive games to LSU and Ole Miss. They'll take out some frustration on Furman, but it will only make them feel better. No one else will even notice.
By the time they head into Athens they'll be hobbling from a lack of depth, batterred and bruised. They'll face an under-achieving UGA squad w/ 4 losses, and Richt's job will be on the line. IF AU plays above their heads they could conceivably win this game, but my bet would be on UGA taking care of business in spite of themselves, probably outlasting AU in the 4th quarter.
Then they'll get a bye week.
Then they'll host Alabama, who due only to sloppy play, miscues and special teams breakdowns will have lost 2 or 3 games by that point. Even for Alabama fans the beating of an unarmed man with a tire iron will be easier to watch than this game. The only two things having separated the Tide from another unbeaten regular season would be 1) a series of miscues in Oxford that was almost overcome late in the fourth quarter until a false start at the Ole Miss goal line transforms an almost-certainly game-winning touchdown into a botched game-tying 26 yard FG attempt sailing infuriatingly wide left and 2) the LSU at home curse. Without the Gators and the SECCG looming large the following week the '09 IB will be the 45-7 blowout it oughta be. IF Bama cleans up their play between now and Arkansas then the Tide could get caught looking ahead to UF and only win 28-17 in a quintessential 1981 or 1999 style-game, probably coming from behind midway through the 4th quarter and adding an "insurance run" late.
AU will be 7-5, with a little luck 8-4, and if all of their stars align 9-3. It will probably take significant injuries or bad luck to turn in consecutive losing seasons, but certainly they're only one solid hit on Todd's bad shoulder away from that. Expect to find them somewhere between the Indy Bowl and the Peach Bowl, with Music City being most likely.
Dizzy
