CFP Chances

Bama9001

1st Team
Sep 26, 2017
546
519
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I disagree. We expect to be in the playoffs. I do every year. I never think we aren’t in, until we get loss 2. Ironically I still think we should have been in last year too. :)
By the time the playoffs and bowl season were over, everyone else in college football knew Bama should have been in the playoffs. The CFP was a real embarrassment last year because the committee lost it's way and forgot its mandate to get the best four teams in the playoffs.
 

Tidewater

FB|NS|NSNP Moderator
Staff member
Mar 15, 2003
24,622
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Hooterville, Vir.
I disagree. We expect to be in the playoffs. I do every year. I never think we aren’t in, until we get loss 2. Ironically I still think we should have been in last year too. :)
I guess my response would be that the best way to guarantee you do not have to worry about the playoffs is to drop a game between now and then. Should Bama beat UT, LSU, Ken-tuck-ee, and the Cow College, Bama will have stated its case for making the playoffs.
I agree with you about last year's team. I do not think anybody wanted to play that team in January. K State drew the short straw.
 

GrayTide

Hall of Fame
Nov 15, 2005
19,061
6,897
187
Greenbow, Alabama
I've heard "de Bama fateeg is weal" for so long, it's refreshing to see this sober and correct analysis.
Spot on, excellent.


Sadly - I suspect we will be watching the good teams still playing in the four-team battle royal.
But I'd be glad to be wrong, too.
I agree with Bill on this. We could easily lose to both Tennessee and LSU, even in BDS unless the offense finds a pulse. You do not win either of these games by playing 30 minutes or less. Daniels and the LSU receiving corps will show us the true quality of our defense. Fortunately for us Milton is nowhere near the QB Daniels is, and is only slightly better than Milroe. Having Milroe at QB paired with our weak offensive line is a recipe for disaster. I have eaten crow many times and would welcome it again.
 

crimsonaudio

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 9, 2002
68,719
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crimsonaudio.net
I disagree. We expect to be in the playoffs. I do every year. I never think we aren’t in, until we get loss 2. Ironically I still think we should have been in last year too. :)
I base my expectations on what I see, and this Bama team has more blatant flaws than any in recent memory.

There's still a long way to go but the 2023 Bama team is NOT playing championship level football right now, not even close.

*fingers crossed*
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
22,966
21,085
282
Boone, NC
Weirdly, this has been the most stress-free season of watching Bama football in a long time for me. I think it is because I came into the year with low expectations and have seen no reason to change those expectations.
I feel exactly the opposite. I bought into the preseason hype/lies about returning to smash mouth/make 'em quit/sound fundamentals etc. and this has been the most disappoint product I've seen Alabama put out since the Shula years.

We are in danger of losing every game we play because of the way we play.
 

We_are_Bama

Suspended
Dec 11, 2008
3,816
1,007
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I guess my response would be that the best way to guarantee you do not have to worry about the playoffs is to drop a game between now and then. Should Bama beat UT, LSU, Ken-tuck-ee, and the Cow College, Bama will have stated its case for making the playoffs.
I agree with you about last year's team. I do not think anybody wanted to play that team in January. K State drew the short straw.
The consensus is that Bama was cheated out of the playoffs last year and in 2019. I'm on the fence about last year. While we were good enough to get in..it was that second loss was that was ultimately used as ammo against us in order to shoehorn in TCU. As for 2019, no. I have NEVER agreed that we were cheated that year. First off, we would NOT have beaten LSU in a rematch, and I didn't want them having the bragging rights of 2 wins in less than 2 months over us. Which was really a moot point as the playoff folks were not going to risk the possibility of a Bama-LSU rematch that year. Secondly, I don't see who we should have been in the playoffs in place of. 3 undefeated teams and a 1 loss team were in, so it's hard to imagine putting 2 loss Bama in over one of them. But last year, yeah a stronger case could have been made to put us in over a one loss TCU
 

We_are_Bama

Suspended
Dec 11, 2008
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I base my expectations on what I see, and this Bama team has more blatant flaws than any in recent memory.

There's still a long way to go but the 2023 Bama team is NOT playing championship level football right now, not even close.

*fingers crossed*
Agreed and I do NOT see this team reaching championship level before the end of the regular season. The media wants us there something fierce, I guess because "it's just better with Bama" but this is a year to just call a spade a spade
 

crimsonaudio

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 9, 2002
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Agreed and I do NOT see this team reaching championship level before the end of the regular season. The media wants us there something fierce, I guess because "it's just better with Bama" but this is a year to just call a spade a spade
The counter is that no one looks unbeatable this year, so even a 'ineffective' Bama still has a chance...
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
22,966
21,085
282
Boone, NC
Agreed and I do NOT see this team reaching championship level before the end of the regular season. The media wants us there something fierce, I guess because "it's just better with Bama" but this is a year to just call a spade a spade
In respect to Selma it does seem most years the media is picking us apart but for some reason this year they seem to be in love with us.

Maybe it's the skeptic in me, but it makes me wonder if they think we'd blow it if we got in this year (because of our dysfunction) but in most years they fear we'll win it.

IDK. I can't figure any of this out.
 
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CrimSonami

All-American
Jul 17, 2011
3,585
2,727
187
Ardmore, AL; too close to 10erC
I disagree. We expect to be in the playoffs. I do every year. I never think we aren’t in, until we get loss 2. Ironically I still think we should have been in last year too. :)
The "COMMITTEE" put TCU in last year after losing to the 14th ranked team in their CCG. We then spanked that team by 25 and it could've been worse. Bama won't make the playoffs unless we start dominating the competition through the SEC-CG. And if UGA drops a game along the way that'll work against us as well.

At this point I'll consider winning the Conference Championship a successful season.
 
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Tidelines

All-American
Oct 19, 2022
2,505
4,108
187
Personally, I'm not worried about it at all.

I don't truly believe we are good enough to win a championship and I've accepted that. If we make the CFP I'll be pleasantly surprised. Anything above a 10 win season will make me happy with this team.
If we lose a second game and are out of the playoff. We need to play some younger players. What have you got to lose. Even if we lose another game it could help us next year. And example would be Miller and Haynes at RB. And please play some of the younger QBs , OLs .
 

Windsortide

Hall of Fame
Nov 11, 2019
5,155
3,040
187
Play to play
Series to Series
Quarter to Quarter
Game to Game with this team no looking ahead.
Be ware your feet are!
shirts for this team
 

mdb-tpet

All-SEC
Sep 2, 2004
1,995
2,111
282
I'm not worried about the polls. First we need to put more points on the board than all of the rest of the teams we play. Then several undefeated teams have to lose to lower ranked teams for us to even worry about the polls. But mostly we have to take care of business ourselves. Polls are simply a distraction.

There are currently 8 undefeated teams of consequence:
1. Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan all play each other before their championship game, so there will be at least 4 losses there probably eliminating 2 teams:

So, then there are 6 teams:
2. We have to win out and then likely beat Georgia if they are undefeated, leaving 5 undefeated teams, none of which will be better than our record against the schedule we are playing.
3. Oklahoma has to win out, which is possible.

5 undefeated left:
4. Washington has 3 ranked teams in a row to beat, so I expect them to struggle in one game at least, leaving 4 undefeated teams.

4 undefeated teams:
5. North Carolina and Florida State will have to play in their championship game, so there's 3 undefeated left.

So, there you go, we win out, we're likely in if we play good football since our loss was early in the season.

You could say Texas will get in before us, or a 1 loss Oklahoma, but I think the team that beats the number 1 team will get in.
Just to rehash, there can only be 4 Power 5 undefeated teams if we win out. And I don't believe those 4 teams will each win all 6 or 7 of their remaining games. Essentially, collectively they would have to be 25-0 for the rest of the year, which has not and probably will never happen. At least 1 team will have a loss in the playoff, and more likely 2 or 3 teams will have a loss meaning if we win out, there's not too much to worry about as long as we play reasonably sound football.
 
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selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
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By the time the playoffs and bowl season were over, everyone else in college football knew Bama should have been in the playoffs. The CFP was a real embarrassment last year because the committee lost it's way and forgot its mandate to get the best four teams in the playoffs.
No such mandate exists except in the minds of fans who either can't read or refuse to comprehend.

Everyone seems to stop their reading right here:
For purposes of any four-team playoff, the process will inevitably need to select the four best teams

They need to read the rest of the sentence and stop this "four best teams" mantra nonsense:
from among several with legitimate claims to participate.

The committee got it right.
The committee has always gotten it right.

The fact TCU got blown off the field doesn't mean there was anything wrong with the process. (Amazingly, very few thought there was anything wrong with the process that produced Florida getting blown out by 1995 Nebraska or Nebraska getting blown out by 2001 Miami or 2003 Oklahoma making the field - which was a damn joke - or OU getting in over Texas in 2008).

Alabama lost two games.
TCU lost one.

The "four best teams" part - arguably - doesn't end right there but "legitimate claims to participate" most assuredly does.

We can blame ourselves: WE left it in the hands of the committee.
 
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selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
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I base my expectations on what I see, and this Bama team has more blatant flaws than any in recent memory.

There's still a long way to go but the 2023 Bama team is NOT playing championship level football right now, not even close.

*fingers crossed*
Once upon a time, we'd know "look, we have a few glitches in the system that if we can win and work it out without blowing another game, we can win it all."

But we are doing many of the same stupid things we did last year (e.g. the most ignorant penalties since the end of the DuBose era).

I've always been able to handle even the rare loss in the Saban era because one thing we did NOT do was monumentally stupid stuff like turning the ball over so easily or keeping long, clock-killing drives going for the opposition (or stopping our own) with utter stupidity. We were DISCIPLINED.

That's not just an NIL thing, either - we've doing that for 3-4 years now.

The one hope we can hold to is that we get through the Vols and turn it around during the off week and come back a better team that wins out. And the fact there's no top to bottom powerhouse that you look at and say, "Wow, that's gonna be a tough team to beat" like 2016 Alabama or 2019 LSU.
 
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selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
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The consensus is that Bama was cheated out of the playoffs last year and in 2019.
Maybe on this board - nowhere else.

We were #13 in the CFP final poll in 2019.
How could anyone take us over UGA or Florida - or debatably Auburn?
The last one could be argued on loss count, Tua's injury, and the fact Auburn won by the same points they got on the shady field goal at the end of the first half, but we'd be hard-pressed beyond that.


I'm on the fence about last year. While we were good enough to get in..it was that second loss was that was ultimately used as ammo against us in order to shoehorn in TCU.
The sick joke where it concerned TCU wasn't their selection to the playoff, it was the absolute shameless lying they did simply to prevent a Michigan-Ohio State rematch in the semis. Never before had a team NOT DROPPED in the polls when they lost, even only one spot. It was defensible for TCU to not drop below fourth; it was NOT defensible to keep a team that lost a conference title game at #3 and pretend the pending rematch had nothing to do with the shady ranking. Ohio State dropped a spot in 2016 when they didn't play in the B1G title game - but TCU LOSES and DOES NOT drop????

The committee has made the right selection in every single case.
They've also lied incessantly about what they were doing, too.
Because we ALL KNOW that if OKLAHOMA OR TEXAS had been the name in 2014 and NOT TCU, Ohio State would have been home watching the playoffs on TV. (That's no rip on the champions of that year, but you're never gonna persuade me that they drop TEXAS or OU 3 spots after a 52-point blowout win, either).



As for 2019, no. I have NEVER agreed that we were cheated that year. First off, we would NOT have beaten LSU in a rematch, and I didn't want them having the bragging rights of 2 wins in less than 2 months over us. Which was really a moot point as the playoff folks were not going to risk the possibility of a Bama-LSU rematch that year. Secondly, I don't see who we should have been in the playoffs in place of. 3 undefeated teams and a 1 loss team were in, so it's hard to imagine putting 2 loss Bama in over one of them. But last year, yeah a stronger case could have been made to put us in over a one loss TCU
I actually don't think LSU would have won a rematch because they shouldn't have won the first game.
We played terribly, they played great - and they still only beat us by 5.

Joe Burrow, good as he was, had fewer TD passes than Tua for fewer yards despite having 9 more plays. Of course, the difference in the game were two turnovers Tua made (a pick and the fumble on his way towards what looked like the game's first TD).

The key play of the entire game was Burrow stopping Terrell Lewis on the fumble recovery from going the distance. We punted three plays later.

LSU was a fantastic team in 2019, don't get me wrong.
But we still should have beaten them - but it is what it is, too.
 

Grogan11

Scout Team
Sep 10, 2023
108
504
112
Agreed and I do NOT see this team reaching championship level before the end of the regular season. The media wants us there something fierce, I guess because "it's just better with Bama" but this is a year to just call a spade a spade
We all need to realize the days of the flawless super team is over. There is no way to keep that type of depth any more. The transfer portal and NIL have forever leveled the playing field. Do we have holes, yes 100%, but so does everyone else. For the first time in my life there are probably 10 teams that can actually win it all. Our road to the playoff is difficult because we have to win out but once we make it there we’ll have just as good a chance as anyone else.
 

We_are_Bama

Suspended
Dec 11, 2008
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2020 was probably the final Bama murder ball machine. If/when we win another gold trophy, it will be more like 1992 under Stallings as opposed to the 6 under CNS
 

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