Early line: Bama favored by 24.5 over Monroe

[JD95]

No, it isn't.

At all.

Obviously, Ohio State was much better than the -2 they were giving at Texas. Obviously, Notre Dame was better than the -7 they were laying at Penn State. Obviously, Vandy was WAY better than the +17 they were given at Alabama. (Or we were way worse than the -17 we were laying...you get the point) Is any of this true? Nope. No way to say.

It's exactly what he said it is: It is simply the number that Vegas thinks will get even money put on both teams, which is why it moves.

Do you really think if Bama's line shoots up to + 26 or 27 over La. Monroethat means we are suddenly in the eyes of Vegas two more points better? No, it means they are gonna lose their asses if Bama covers because they didn't set their number high enough to start with.

I had more than a few drinks one evening with one of the handicappers for one of the casinos in Vegas, and I assure you, the line has nothing to do with the quality, percieved or otherwise, of the two teams...the number is all about the money.

Period.

4Da

And exactly what gets bettors to put money evenly on each side? It's their perception of the quality of the teams. You'll only bet Bama -24.5 if you perceive that Bama is 25 points better than Monroe. So while I agree that the line doesn't tell you in fact which team is better, it's an accurate gauge of perceived quality -- otherwise the bookie won't get the even bets he needs.

 

[4DaTIDE]

And exactly what gets bettors to put money evenly on each side? It's their perception of the quality of the teams. You'll only bet Bama -24.5 if you perceive that Bama is 25 points better than Monroe. So while I agree that the line doesn't tell you in fact which team is better, it's an accurate gauge of perceived quality -- otherwise the bookie won't get the even bets he needs.

For the uneducated sports bettor, or the average fan who doesn't know better, I'll give you that.

Some of us know better, and do quite well.

Theoretically, of course. :biggrin2:

4Da

 

[NYBamaFan]

And exactly what gets bettors to put money evenly on each side? It's their perception of the quality of the teams. You'll only bet Bama -24.5 if you perceive that Bama is 25 points better than Monroe. So while I agree that the line doesn't tell you in fact which team is better, it's an accurate gauge of perceived quality -- otherwise the bookie won't get the even bets he needs.

Exactly, and that is why you should not use the line to bet on a game.

Perceived strength is too subjective and always biased. Again, if you must bet, only bet on teams that you think will win and cover, and never take huge spreads. You might get lucky early, but the book will get you in the end (especially if he is paying attention to your specific betting patterns).

As for betting on over/unders, when I set lines, I knew that we could get beat here as we didn't get enough action to even out the bets, so I limited the amount that a person could bet on an o/u and how much total action we would take. If you think that you have a system that works, move to Vegas. The bookies are crooked. At least in Vegas you get a fair line every week...

 

[SimCastilleFan3]

its games like this when i totally tune out. we are playing a high school, folks. i will not buy the game on ppv or listen to it on the radio. i will rejoin when we head to fayetteville.....

I hear you on that brother ill probably just catch the stats after the game or just watch the game when they show it later at night.