First CFP Rankings- Bama #8

[81usaf92]

I don't buy this.

1) For starters, Washington has already had close calls against Arizona (on the road, not so bad) and Arizona St (???), Penix appears to be hurting, and they still have USC, Utah, and one of the best Oregon State teams of recent years. They're not going undefeated!!!

Oregon still has USC and Oregon State plus a rematch against...somebody.

2) I still expect Texas to blow a game they should win. They always do. But we might need them to clear out Oklahoma in a rematch, too.

3) While I don't expect this one to happen..
There is still the possibility of round-robin elimination in the B1G. Ohio St eliminated Penn St who eliminates Michigan who eliminates Ohio State and we are left with whoever wins the title game.


In all honesty - with who we have left, including a (currently) highly rated LSU and having to face either Georgia or Missouri.......win and we're in.

The problem I see is this…

Oregon and Washington are proving the wrong team won that game with each passing week. If Lanning calls one less 4th down gamble then we likely are wondering if Oregon is beatable. I think if Oregon wins out they are in. Plus the Heisman trophy winner is on that team.

Texas has Alabama beat on the road. If they survive this week without Ewers and win out then I don’t know how you make the argument that Alabama is more deserving than them even with a win over Georgia.

Georgia like I have said many times, is not popular with voters. They are looking for a reason to drop them like a sack of potatoes and get rid of them. They are a boring team that plays what many feel is a cake schedule. Then to top it off they often play down to their competition.

I think Oklahoma vs Alabama is something to watch out for. Alabama probably wins the argument over them. But if one spot comes down between us and them then we are sweating it to 11am.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

I don't buy this.

1) For starters, Washington has already had close calls against Arizona (on the road, not so bad) and Arizona St (???), Penix appears to be hurting, and they still have USC, Utah, and one of the best Oregon State teams of recent years. They're not going undefeated!!!

Oregon still has USC and Oregon State plus a rematch against...somebody.

2) I still expect Texas to blow a game they should win. They always do. But we might need them to clear out Oklahoma in a rematch, too.

3) While I don't expect this one to happen..
There is still the possibility of round-robin elimination in the B1G. Ohio St eliminated Penn St who eliminates Michigan who eliminates Ohio State and we are left with whoever wins the title game.


In all honesty - with who we have left, including a (currently) highly rated LSU and having to face either Georgia or Missouri.......win and we're in.

I agree we can get in… I’m just saying that there IS a path where we get locked out because of things out of our control.

Washington looks to be the most vulnerable right now but Oregon can beat them and basically just take their spot. So we kinda need both to lose to just get the PAC out of the way.

Texas and OU is a similar problem. Both could lose again but we kinda also need both to lose and especially Texas.

I feel the least confident about the B1G eliminating themselves.

I feel like either tOSU or Mich will be undefeated unless they choke in their Conf Title game… but they are ranked so high that they could still get the TCU treatment from last year.

Overall I’m at least Cautiously optimistic about our chances.

But we do need help… Hopefully we get in… and Hopefully we do our part and win out or none of matters anyway.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

OK everyone just so we're clear:
1) in a vacuum, YES - it is possible we could be on the outside looking in
2) I just don't see that happening with an SEC champion if we won that, too

Suspicion is that teams will now have pressure and, well, it plays different.

If the right teams win, YES, we could be holding a heavy bag.

 

[81usaf92]

OK everyone just so we're clear:
1) in a vacuum, YES - it is possible we could be on the outside looking in
2) I just don't see that happening with an SEC champion if we won that, too

Suspicion is that teams will now have pressure and, well, it plays different.

If the right teams win, YES, we could be holding a heavy bag.

I think the possibility of this dooms day scenario probably crumbles in the next two weeks. But I do think Oregon and Texas winning out puts them in over us. That’s really where I’m at.

However it’s a moot point if we don’t do our part

 

[dWarriors88]

I believe Texas needs a loss to someone besides Oklahoma cause of Oklahoma beats them again I believe they are in

How about a second loss to OU in the Big XII Championship game?

 

[bamadwain]

How about a second loss to OU in the Big XII Championship game?

What I meant was and I didn't word it right lol, Texas needs to lose and then beat Oklahoma

 

[rolltide_21]

That’s about right. I would’ve put Texas #6, Bama #7, Oregon #8. I’m not a believer in the PAC12 hype.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

No we still need help.

We get left out like this…

1) tOSU/Mich Winner
2) FSU Undefeated
3) Washington Undefeated or Oregon 12-1 winner
4) Texas 12-1

Even if we run out there and Beat UGA we can’t move up.

We gotta have either FSU to lose or Wash to lose and Oregon lose or Texas to lose to create another spot.

OU is still a threat too tbh because if they beat Texas again they will have 2 wins against the team that beat us.

It’s going to take more than us being 12-1

This is not how the committee operates though. They have proven over the years that they don’t think in straight terms of this team his here so this team moves to here with a win/loss. They have been willing to make big jumps up and down from week to week at times.

I think a Bama, SEC champ with wins over UGA, LSU, Tenn and Ole Miss (all in the top 25 right now) could easily jump Texas in the committee’s minds.

I still don’t buy the PAC12 hype this year. Maybe I’m just bias because of how bad they’ve been lately.

 

[CajunCrimson]

I love opinions. I hate “expert” opinions. Either on here or in the media. No one knows much of anything as there is still 30-40% of the season to go and the bigger games are backloaded

Absolutism is so common.

No one knows. I believe the SEC has built up a ton of credit. And from what I remember, it’s been from dominance and not luck.

Unless the SEC Champ has 2 losses, I just don’t see how Bama, UGA, or Ole Miss even, would have to worry

I get SEC fatigue, but you can’t truly justify locking out a dominant conference who has won what? 14 of the last 20 years ?

I just can’t see it.

 

[KrAzY3]

I must have missed that game where Texas actually beat Oklahoma.

That one is pretty circular.

Texas beat Alabama so they are ranked ahead of Alabama, Oklahoma beat Texas so...

SoS here is a bit relevant I guess, but it should actually favor Alabama over Texas in that case.

According to ESPN's FPI, Alabama's SoS is 8, Texas is 9 and Oklahoma is 40. According to Sagarin it is 3, 18 and 35 respectively. It kind of makes sense though, I guess, they are weighing both head to head and SoS.

A lot of football left to play and we still need to win out but the math is getting far more complicated

According to ESPN's calculator Alabama has a 94% chance of making the playoff if they win out, and I'd say that's about right. It's possible to get left out but extremely unlikely.

Far more likely Alabama loses again than they win out and get left out I suppose. Also of note, Sagarin has Alabama at 3 and ESPN's FPI has Alabama at 4. As things progress it's going to be harder to deny Alabama's strength of schedule, they might do it but they darn sure shouldn't...

 

[BamaBoySince89]

I think Oklahoma vs Alabama is something to watch out for. Alabama probably wins the argument over them. But if one spot comes down between us and them then we are sweating it to 11am.

Oklahoma beat Texas on a neutral site. They’d probably win that argument

 

[selmaborntidefan]

That one is pretty circular.

Texas beat Alabama so they are ranked ahead of Alabama, Oklahoma beat Texas so...

SoS here is a bit relevant I guess, but it should actually favor Alabama over Texas in that case.

According to ESPN's FPI, Alabama's SoS is 8, Texas is 9 and Oklahoma is 40. According to Sagarin it is 3, 18 and 35 respectively. It kind of makes sense though, I guess, they are weighing both head to head and SoS.


According to ESPN's calculator Alabama has a 94% chance of making the playoff if they win out, and I'd say that's about right. It's possible to get left out but extremely unlikely.

Far more likely Alabama loses again than they win out and get left out I suppose. Also of note, Sagarin has Alabama at 3 and ESPN's FPI has Alabama at 4. As things progress it's going to be harder to deny Alabama's strength of schedule, they might do it but they darn sure shouldn't...

It's at this point I have to remind myself that when Alan Gould created the first AP poll in 1936, the point of the whole thing was to get people talking about college football.

And, of course, here we are - fourscore and seven years later - talking about it.

I don't have any sort of major problem with the polls as presented - largely because they don't matter. This is not the old days of "once you take over a spot, it takes and act of Congress to move you" or "as long as you manage to go into the bowl games at #1, you hold it even if you don't have to face #2."

Again - the good thing is it will sort itself out on the field. Well, MOSTLY on the field, ha ha.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Oklahoma beat Texas on a neutral site. They’d probably win that argument

They would if it was that simple. And while I do lean toward simplicity in rankings, OU basically won on the last play of the game, meaning the game could have gone either way. I'd view it with more energy if OU had won by 17 points.

But they're going to play again as it is if both win out, which will eliminate one.

And by the time we get to that argument, we will have an entire season's worth of data points, some of which will favor Texas and some Oklahoma.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I still don’t buy the PAC12 hype this year. Maybe I’m just bias because of how bad they’ve been lately.

What's funny is that if USC were STILL UNDEFEATED.....they'd be in the top 3, and they'd be dragging UW and Oregon higher.

The fact such would be arbitrary is what makes this all ridiculous. "You see, when it's USC, that's PROOF the conference is good, but when it's anybody else, well, we just don't know."

As a reminder: the imbeciles were toying with the idea "if USC and Alabama played again, the Trojans would win" just two months after 52-6. I'm sorry, a 3-point win I could buy that. Maybe a 15-point win since the game was the opener.

You don't get a mulligan for a 46-point bombing administered by a guy just out of high school playing his first college game. That argument would never be made for Washington, but it's been made for USC (several pundits) in 2016 and for Oregon by Heather Dinnich last year after the 46-point loss to UGA.

 

[BhamToTexas]

Another troubling scenario, OSU ends with only 1 loss to Michigan who is undefeated and #1. We have seen this play out.

Lots of football to go though, it probably works out for us if we win out.

 

[GrayTide]

Lots of football left and there are a lot of big games to be decided. Right now I do not see anyone beating UGA or tOSU. They both have their most difficult games (Missouri or Ole Miss and Michigan) at home. I think tOSU is more likely to lose to Michigan than Georgia is to Missouri or Ole Miss. If there is a rematch of Oregon vs Washington, I like Oregon, a Texas vs Oklahoma rematch I would favor Texas. The "fly in the ointment" is FSU. While there schedule and conference strength are suspect, the Committee would love to add an outside team for a change, kind of like it did with TCU last year. So, right now I see UGA, tOSU, FSU, Oregon, and Texas vying for 4 spots. I have my doubts about us beating LSU, but if we did, I do not think we are a match for UGA.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

The way I see it when it comes to Oklahoma vs Texas is they both have comparable big wins. Oklahoma has a close win over Texas at a Neutral site. Texas has a 10 point win at Alabama. Then Oklahoma lost to a Kansas team that Texas absolutely destroyed.

Idk. It makes sense to me that Texas is above Oklahoma as I think they are pretty clearly the better team at this point in the season.

I also think Oregon is better than Washington though. And I think Oregon probably jumps them if Washington drops a game.

 

[Tiderollin32]

What are people seeing in FSU and their schedule that makes them worthy of a top 4 spot if each conference wins out?

 

[Bama9001]

Lots of football left and there are a lot of big games to be decided. Right now I do not see anyone beating UGA or tOSU. They both have their most difficult games (Missouri or Ole Miss and Michigan) at home. I think tOSU is more likely to lose to Michigan than Georgia is to Missouri or Ole Miss. If there is a rematch of Oregon vs Washington, I like Oregon, a Texas vs Oklahoma rematch I would favor Texas. The "fly in the ointment" is FSU. While there schedule and conference strength are suspect, the Committee would love to add an outside team for a change, kind of like it did with TCU last year. So, right now I see UGA, tOSU, FSU, Oregon, and Texas vying for 4 spots. I have my doubts about us beating LSU, but if we did, I do not think we are a match for UGA.

I think UGA has something like a #81 SOS. Because of that, we don't really know much about them. UGA's two toughest opponents, Kentucky (5-3) and Florida (5-3), are modestly capable but that's about the all the praise I can heap on them.

I will make one bold prediction: No conference will get two in this year.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

What are people seeing in FSU and their schedule that makes them worthy of a top 4 spot if each conference wins out?

I guess l lose since l had under 15 posts before someone went with an objection to some team's schedule.

There are 7 teams that play in the SEC West. The division is not big enough to accommodate every FBS team, since this is the actual objection.

They're unbeaten in a Power 5 conference and manhandled LSU. That's why they're so high.


l suspect though they're a paper tiger.