First CFP Rankings- Bama #8

[RollTide_HTTR]

I'm not 100% sure there is a scenario we are left out IF we win the rest of our games.

Even if all the teams that can win out do so, the conversation would come down to us vs an undefeated FSU. But FSU's best win is who? LSU? in the scenario we win out LSU would be maybe our 3rd best win assuming Ole Miss keeps winning besides the Georgia game.

I still need to see us beat LSU for me to even worry about it but I seriously doubt we'd be left out. We'd have wins over LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Kentucky. Not all of those will be ranked but they will all be good wins.

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

Of course I want in, but Bama had the chance to guarantee their way in and blew it, so here we are.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Chaos tends to reign. Who would have thought OU would lose to Kansas?

Me, but only because they do stuff like this every single year.
Every. Single. Year.

They did it under Stoops.
They did it under Riley.
They're doing it under Venables.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think the committee decided that Oklahoma losing to Kansas trumped Oklahoma beating Texas. Bad loss trumps good win.

Just to be clear, I don't have a problem with this in the abstract.
I have a problem with the CFP being two-faced idiots who can just make up any argument and I have to accept it.

This - to me - is the quintessential example, but they do this all the time. I honestly have/had no problem with them picking Ohio State over Baylor and TCU in 2014, and I've stated the reasons here previously. And I don't like any of those teams, but this makes no sense at all.

But let's take a look....

1) Baylor beat TCU, 61-58 at home on October 11, 2014.

Baylor trailed, 58-37, with less than 12 minutes left and made a sensational comeback. They kicked a 28-yard field goal on the final play to win. At home.

2) In the first poll released two weeks later, TCU was 7th and Baylor was 13th.

Why? Well, because Baylor lost by 14 points the very week after beating TCU to WVA...a team that TCU would edge between poll 1 and poll 2 by a single point.

3) Baylor remained behind TCU in EVERY SINGLE POLL for the next five weeks (six polls).

Yes, they moved up when they won - as did TCU - but they were behind them for six CFP polls.


THE OTHER DATA

a) TCU played a tougher OOC than Baylor did.
- yes, TCU played Samford, but they also played - and waxed - #18 Minnesota
- Baylor got NW State and piddly little 5-6 Buffalo

b) TCU beat more opponents by more impressive scores than Baylor did.
Kansas State - TCU by 21, Baylor by 9
Oklahoma - TCU by 4, Baylor by 34
WVA - TCU by 1, Baylor LOST
Texas - TCU by 38, Baylor by 21
Okie St - TCU by 33, Baylor by 21
Texas Tech - TCU by 54, Baylor by 2
Iowa St - TCU by 52, Baylor by 21
Kansas - TCU by 4, Baylor by 46
SMU - TCU by 56, Baylor by 45

So....of 9 common opponents......TCU beat ALL 9 of them, Baylor went 8-1.......TCU beat SEVEN of those same foes by more points, often by SUBSTANTIALLY more than Baylor did while Baylor beat two (OU and Kansas) by a lot more points.

So TCU played a tougher schedule.
TCU had the more impressive wins.
TCU beat the team that beat the team (the UCF infantile argument)
And Baylor had the head-to-head win with a rally in the last 12 minutes AT HOME.

But in the last poll, the one where Ohio State go the #4 spot, TCU not only fell, they FELL BELOW Baylor.

And we got this kind of nonsensical claptrap from Jeff Long:
"Committee members believed that Baylor and TCU were roughly equal.
Baylor's win over TCU was the tiebreaker in the case."

Say WHAT??????
Then why wasn't Baylor ranked ahead of TCU in ANY of the previous six polls?????

"We thought a team that beat #18 from another conference and seven of their nine common foes by more points - usually substantially more - was even with a team that played nobody worth a damn out of conference and thumped two common foes. So since they were one and the same, we went with head-to-head."

You can see EXACTLY what the committee did, too: "since TCU only beat OKLAHOMA at home by 4 and Baylor KILLED OKLAHOMA on the road, we went with Baylor. Only Blue Bloods count in this sport." Never mind that TCU had to face Oklahoma and Baylor back-to-back.

This - to me - is the same argument as the one that says, "Oklahoma State only lost to Iowa State because of that plane crash that killed the basketball coaches." This would be a more believable claim if Okie State hadn't led, 24-7, when apparently the entire team went into mourning and grieving as if a world leader had been killed or Stillwater had been the victim of a stupid promotional stunt gone wrong and turkeys dropped onto the populace.



I reiterate: my problem isn't that we HAVE to always say "head to head".
My problem is you don't get to act like that didn't happen for 6 weeks and THEN decide, "Yeah, that three-point home win on the last play is the difference in the entire season."

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I'm surprised Washington is still undefeated. I stayed up late a couple of times to watch them, and if not for an implosion by their competitor, they could easily have two losses.

My Oregon bud, who is a lifelong Washington fan, has been saying all year that UW is not as good as their record shows. He even said - the guy lives just down the street from Autzen (in Eugene) - that Oregon lost that game more than Washington won it.

He has also said as a Pac-12 fan since the conference was less than a decade old that he is rooting for Oregon State to win the whole thing and then shatter the conference championship trophy in the ultimate "up yours."

His DREAM was Oregon State making the CFP and then suing the rest of the conference to keep all the money for themselves, which I admit had me amused.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

I guess l lose since l had under 15 posts before someone went with an objection to some team's schedule.

There are 7 teams that play in the SEC West. The division is not big enough to accommodate every FBS team, since this is the actual objection.

They're unbeaten in a Power 5 conference and manhandled LSU. That's why they're so high.


l suspect though they're a paper tiger.

I agree. My proof is the acc is so bad that the team tied for second place right now (Va Tech) has 4 losses.

 

[GulfCoastTider]

The powers that be would like nothing better than keeping one or both of the two best teams in the SEC (and thus, best in the USA) out of the playoffs this year. They want it badly because next year's 12-team lineup will have at least two SEC members and probably every year after that.

 

[RammerJammer14]

I personally just don’t understand Washington at 5. Sure they are undefeated but they had to come from behind at the end of the 4th to win their last 2 games against 2 teams with a combined 3 wins. They are a joke.

 

[russtang]

I'd like to hear the reasoning for Mich over FSU and Wash at #3. Both FSU and Wash have played and beat ranked teams. Mich has played zero ranked teams and their schedule has been easier than Georgia's so far.

 

[BamaFlum]

The powers that be would like nothing better than keeping one or both of the two best teams in the SEC (and thus, best in the USA) out of the playoffs this year. They want it badly because next year's 12-team lineup will have at least two SEC members and probably every year after that.

I’m not so sure. If it truly about money, they will want to keep an SEC team in. Most SEC schools travel well and spend well.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

I'd like to hear the reasoning for Mich over FSU and Wash at #3. Both FSU and Wash have played and beat ranked teams. Mich has played zero ranked teams and their schedule has been easier than Georgia's so far.

Because the ACC and PAC12 suck so, even with wins over ranked opponents they are still lower.

It is always funny how worked up people get every year over these rankings when the only one that matters is the last one. They have proven over the years that the previous weeks rankings don't necessarily reflect or influence the next weeks. I believe them when they say they throw out the rankings each week and start brand new because it shows. Sometimes a win/loss can move you 5 spots. Sometimes you don't move at all (cough, TCU).

Everyone in the current top four has big test(s) left. The next 3 opponents for Wash and UGA are currently ranked. Mich has 2 teams ranked left on their schedule and OSU has Mich. FSU (the weakest of the bunch IMO) has to get by UM, which is not a push over this year, and I would not be surprised if UF gives them a tough game. Personally, in the end, I could see a scenario where an undefeated FSU gets jumped by a 1 loss conference champ.

There is just too much football left, this week's rankings really should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[BamaInBham]

The powers that be would like nothing better than keeping one or both of the two best teams in the SEC (and thus, best in the USA) out of the playoffs this year. They want it badly because next year's 12-team lineup will have at least two SEC members and probably every year after that.

To this point, IMO, the CFP Committee has been very fair to the SEC and Alabama. In fact, IMO, they have done a good job overall. The only bad choice they seem to have made is TCU last year and even that was understandable. Even though Alabama and maybe others as well would have faired better vs UGA, IMO, Alabama at least, was not a CFP caliber team, nor would they have likely fared well. Though who knows?

 

[GulfCoastTider]

I’m not so sure. If it truly about money, they will want to keep an SEC team in. Most SEC schools travel well and spend well.

It's the TV markets that count most. Well-traveled fan bases are great, but most of the media's cash cows are in the northeast, upper midwest and west coast. I can count a dozen without looking at a map. Even after the addition of UTw and OU to the SEC, in 2024 onward will still have three media mega markets in Texas, three in Florida and one in Georgia.

Remember that ESPN is in deep financial trouble due to Disney's mismanagement. They are bleeding cash and would like nothing more than appealing to the audiences not south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Their competitors would like nothing more than wresting control of college football from ESPN, so the media rights contract values will be staggering.

 

[GulfCoastTider]

To this point, IMO, the CFP Committee has been very fair to the SEC and Alabama. In fact, IMO, they have done a good job overall. The only bad choice they seem to have made is TCU last year and even that was understandable. Even though Alabama and maybe others as well would have faired better vs UGA, IMO, Alabama at least, was not a CFP caliber team, nor would they have likely fared well. Though who knows?

I agree with what Jess said at the end of the 2023 season. Paraphrasing, "On Selection Sunday, the four best teams in college football were Georgia, LSU, Alabama and Who Cares?"

People outside the SEC know that was true and they hate it.

 

[Jonabain]

Aaaaaa lot of football left. There will be opportunities for teams to move up. Just focus on us and winning out. Everything else will work out.

 

[Elefantman]

We got them right where we want them.