GOP Fight for 2024 nomination II

[4Q Basket Case]

No argument here, but I've yet to meet anyone who honestly sees this happening. At worst, he might be looking at house arrest. I was talking to a lawyer friend the other day and he suggested that these type of indictments are meant to get a quick conviction and are usually easily overturned on appeal. I didn't ask for further explanation because I was in a hurry. I guess time will tell. In any case, the point isn't jail, it's keeping him out of the White House.

I don’t think Trump expects an acquittal. I think he’s going for a hung jury. Previous posts go through the arithmetic….unfortunately in his favor.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I can't disagree; Trump has this thing locked up tight. And as I alluded to earlier in the thread, there's nothing anyone can do about it.

The Republican Party's rules around awarding delegates -- the highest total of votes gets all the delegates in a given state -- mean that Trump (or anyone else) could win 100% of the delegates with only 35% of the vote -- easily conceivably less than that.

There is a core of Trump supporters who would vote for him no matter if he were a convicted felon serving time in Leavenworth. I don't know the number, but I think it's enough to give him the nomination over a splintered Republican field.

The only way Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination is if a bunch of the field drops out and they all coalesce around one opposition candidate.

First, none of the others have sufficiently distinguished themselves. Haley a bit, but not enough. Second, politicos' egos being what they are, nobody will drop out until it's hopeless....by which time Trump will already have secured the nomination.

My four-part prediction:
- 2024 is Trump vs. Biden v2.
- Biden wins by a greater margin than he had in 2020.
- Kamala Harris is President no later than January 1, 2026. Could happen any number of ways. Biden could die. He could become even more obviously impaired than he is now. He could do the honorable thing and resign. Though such a thing would require honor in the first place, and that's in short supply anywhere these days.
- Not more than a month after Harris takes office, China and Russia (assuming Putin is still in power) lob conventional missiles at Taiwan and Poland, respectively. Xi and Putin back up, cross their arms, smirk, and ask, "Whaddaya got now, [insert pejorative term for woman]?"

Then it gets interesting.

 

[92tide]

AJC poll: Trump leads Republicans in Georgia despite Fulton County charges

Former President Donald Trump has a dominant lead over Republican rivals in Georgia despite his electoral setbacks in the state, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll that suggests his unprecedented legal peril hasn’t damaged his comeback bid.

www.ajc.com

tangerine torquemada currently has a 33 point lead over rhonda santis in this georgia poll

 

[Go Bama]

The Republican Party's rules around awarding delegates -- the highest total of votes gets all the delegates in a given state -- mean that Trump (or anyone else) could win 100% of the delegates with only 35% of the vote -- easily conceivably less than that.

There is a core of Trump supporters who would vote for him no matter if he were a convicted felon serving time in Leavenworth. I don't know the number, but I think it's enough to give him the nomination over a splintered Republican field.

The only way Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination is if a bunch of the field drops out and they all coalesce around one opposition candidate.

First, none of the others have sufficiently distinguished themselves. Haley a bit, but not enough. Second, politicos' egos being what they are, nobody will drop out until it's hopeless....by which time Trump will already have secured the nomination.

My four-part prediction:
- 2024 is Trump vs. Biden v2.
- Biden wins by a greater margin than he had in 2020.
- Kamala Harris is President no later than January 1, 2026. Could happen any number of ways. Biden could die. He could become even more obviously impaired than he is now. He could do the honorable thing and resign. Though such a thing would require honor in the first place, and that's in short supply anywhere these days.
- Not more than a month after Harris takes office, China and Russia (assuming Putin is still in power) lob conventional missiles at Taiwan and Poland, respectively. Xi and Putin back up, cross their arms, smirk, and ask, "Whaddaya got now, [insert pejorative term for woman]?"

Then it gets interesting.

That's a bold prediction.

 

[Crimson1967]

The first to drop out of the race. No, I have never heard of him, either.

Suarez suspends 2024 campaign, first Republican presidential candidate to drop out of nomination race

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez suspends his 2024 campaign after failing to make the debate stage last week. He's the first GOP presidential candidate to drop out of the nomination race.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Huckleberry]

Just a reminder of the DeSantis "leadership" style (from back in July):

While speaking to conservative talk show host Howie Carr yesterday, when asked about Florida’s insurance crisis, DeSantis said the following about legislation passed during the last special session:

“I think what’s going to happen is because we did those reforms, it now is more economical for companies to come in,” DeSantis said. “I think they’re going to wait through this hurricane season and then I think they’re going to be willing to deploy more capital to Florida.”

“So knock on wood (that) we won’t have a big storm this summer,” he also said. “Then I think you’re going to start to see companies see an advantage.”

Florida’s insurance crisis: DeSantis says ‘knock on wood’ during hurricane season

Gov. DeSantis is also making news after addressing the topic, on a conservative talk show, where DeSantis is urging patience and hoping for no hurricanes this season.

www.news4jax.com

 

[NationalTitles18]

Just a reminder of the DeSantis "leadership" style (from back in July):

While speaking to conservative talk show host Howie Carr yesterday, when asked about Florida’s insurance crisis, DeSantis said the following about legislation passed during the last special session:

“I think what’s going to happen is because we did those reforms, it now is more economical for companies to come in,” DeSantis said. “I think they’re going to wait through this hurricane season and then I think they’re going to be willing to deploy more capital to Florida.”

“So knock on wood (that) we won’t have a big storm this summer,” he also said. “Then I think you’re going to start to see companies see an advantage.”

Florida’s insurance crisis: DeSantis says ‘knock on wood’ during hurricane season

Gov. DeSantis is also making news after addressing the topic, on a conservative talk show, where DeSantis is urging patience and hoping for no hurricanes this season.

www.news4jax.com

Guess he doesn't believe that hope is not a strategy.

 

[AWRTR]

The Republican Party's rules around awarding delegates -- the highest total of votes gets all the delegates in a given state -- mean that Trump (or anyone else) could win 100% of the delegates with only 35% of the vote -- easily conceivably less than that.

There is a core of Trump supporters who would vote for him no matter if he were a convicted felon serving time in Leavenworth. I don't know the number, but I think it's enough to give him the nomination over a splintered Republican field.

The only way Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination is if a bunch of the field drops out and they all coalesce around one opposition candidate.

First, none of the others have sufficiently distinguished themselves. Haley a bit, but not enough. Second, politicos' egos being what they are, nobody will drop out until it's hopeless....by which time Trump will already have secured the nomination.

My four-part prediction:
- 2024 is Trump vs. Biden v2.
- Biden wins by a greater margin than he had in 2020.
- Kamala Harris is President no later than January 1, 2026. Could happen any number of ways. Biden could die. He could become even more obviously impaired than he is now. He could do the honorable thing and resign. Though such a thing would require honor in the first place, and that's in short supply anywhere these days.
- Not more than a month after Harris takes office, China and Russia (assuming Putin is still in power) lob conventional missiles at Taiwan and Poland, respectively. Xi and Putin back up, cross their arms, smirk, and ask, "Whaddaya got now, [insert pejorative term for woman]?"

Then it gets interesting.

Unfortunately I think you’re right about presidential outcome. Trump is a cancer but the rest of the candidates can’t see past their own egos to get out. The Democrats did it to stop Bernie. He was about to run away with until everyone dropped out before SC primary but Biden and they all endorsed him as like a choir singing an old hymn. The Republicans won’t do it. They don’t have the same level of unity the Dems have to win.

The other thought of a Harris administration is terrifying. If I were a dictator I would push her to see what she would do. Might as well see how she handles a crisis. Kruschev did the same thing to JFK and he answered the bell. What will Harris do?

 

[92tide]

bernie wasn't going to run away with anything in 2020.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Unfortunately I think you’re right about presidential outcome. Trump is a cancer but the rest of the candidates can’t see past their own egos to get out. The Democrats did it to stop Bernie. He was about to run away with until everyone dropped out before SC primary but Biden and they all endorsed him as like a choir singing an old hymn. The Republicans won’t do it. They don’t have the same level of unity the Dems have to win.

The other thought of a Harris administration is terrifying. If I were a dictator I would push her to see what she would do. Might as well see how she handles a crisis. Kruschev did the same thing to JFK and he answered the bell. What will Harris do?

The Democrats have different rules regarding allocation of delegates.

Rather than the winner (defined as the most votes, even if it’s a distinct minority of the total vote count) takes all, the Democrats are substantially proportional.

It’s not exactly proportional. They require a minimum percentage to get any delegates at all, and there are rules around allocating delegates that would have accrued to small percentages that didn’t meet the minimum.

But you’d never have a situation where a candidate gets 35-40% of the vote, but gets all of the delegates….which is how Trump’s delegate count far overstates his percentage of the primary voters.

 

[AWRTR]

The Democrats have different rules regarding allocation of delegates.

Rather than the winner (defined as the most votes, even if it’s a distinct minority of the total vote count) takes all, the Democrats are substantially proportional.

It’s not exactly proportional. They require a minimum percentage to get any delegates at all, and there are rules around allocating delegates that would have accrued to small percentages that didn’t meet the minimum.

But you’d never have a situation where a candidate gets 35-40% of the vote, but gets all of the delegates….which is how Trump’s delegate count far overstates his percentage of the primary voters.

I’ve thought for some time the Rep. should change this to a more proportional system. I hate the super delegate thing, but you do Ty have to do any of that.

 

[Go Bama]

I hate the super delegate thing, but you do Ty have to do any of that.

I can't make any sense out of this statement. I'm sure it's a typo, but I can't figure it out.

 

[AWRTR]

I can't make any sense out of this statement. I'm sure it's a typo, but I can't figure it out.

They have changed how they vote, but at one point they had outsized influence over the Democrat nomination process. I was saying if Rep party went to proportional delegates they could just leave out super delegates all together.

Superdelegate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Crimson1967]

I have zero faith in the primary process because I have never heard a clear explanation of it. And I am reasonably intelligent and politically aware.

 

[AWRTR]

I have zero faith in the primary process because I have never heard a clear explanation of it. And I am reasonably intelligent and politically aware.

What don’t you understand? I totally get not trusting it.

 

[Go Bama]

They have changed how they vote, but at one point they had outsized influence over the Democrat nomination process. I was saying if Rep party went to proportional delegates they could just leave out super delegates all together.

Superdelegate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I was hoping you would fix the typo. It's all good though. I understand now.

Thank you.

 

[AWRTR]

I was hoping you would fix the typo. It's all good though. I understand now.

Thank you.

Didn’t catch the typo. The old phone autocorrect got me.

 

[Tug Tide]

University of Alabama Slated to Host Third Republican Debate

Plus, Wisconsin Republicans ramp up early vote efforts ahead of 2024.

thedispatch.com

.
The Republican National Committee plans to host a third presidential primary debate at the University of Alabama campus in Tuscaloosa this fall, four GOP sources tell The Dispatch.

Our sources caution that details are still preliminary: The RNC is eyeing late October or early November but has not settled on a firm date. A media partner to televise the debate has not been selected yet, and no contracts have been signed. But Republicans familiar with RNC planning say the party is hopeful that holding the third debate in Alabama would entice Donald Trump to participate, as the former president is exceptionally popular in the Yellowhammer State.

 

[92tide]

maybe they can do a tie in with the recent sorority rush documentary

 

[Huckleberry]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1699940301266121132

DeSantis: We’re going to clean house at places like the CDC… We will clean house with personnel. You’re going to have people in with me like my Surgeon General in Florida.

Some background on the Florida Surgeon General: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/florida-surgeon-general-covid-vaccine-00093510

Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo personally altered a state-driven study about Covid-19 vaccines last year to suggest that some doses pose a significantly higher health risk for young men than had been established by the broader medical community, according to a newly obtained document.

Ladapo’s changes, released as part of a public records request, presented the risks of cardiac death to be more severe than previous versions of the study. He later used the final document in October to bolster disputed claims that Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were dangerous to young men.