Hamas attacks Israel - Part 2

[AWRTR]

We’re talking about thousands of these and while the number will be low not everyone who happened to have one on their person at the time will be Hezbollah.

This is a clever, but dangerously indiscriminate method.

Yeah because Hezbollah is real picky about their targets. These are pagers meant for Hezbollah fighters and operatives.

 

[AUDub]

Yeah because Hezbollah is real picky about their targets. These are pagers meant for Hezbollah fighters and operatives.

Part of being the good guys is caring about collateral

 

[AUDub]

These are pagers meant for Hezbollah fighters and operatives.

Axios is reporting one of the people killed was a little girl.

"...they're meant for" and who actually has them aren't a perfect circle on a venn diagram.

 

[Tidewater]

We’re talking about thousands of these and while the number will be low not everyone who happened to have one on their person at the time will be Hezbollah.

This is a clever, but dangerously indiscriminate method.

The principle of noncombatant immunity in Just War Theory would mean that a tactic that might injure the noncombatants should be avoided. The principle of proportionality (in jus in bello) would also means that the potential for collateral damage should be considered when discussing tactics. That said, these were pagers to be used by Hezbollah to recall Hezbollah operatives, so it seem unlikely that a Hezbollah operative would give his pager to his daughter for her use, for two reasons: (1) his daughter probably has a smart phone so why would she take the step back in technology and (2) this was a one-way communication from Hezbollah HQ to Hezbollah operatives, so it seems useless for noncombatants, even as Hezbollah defines the term.

It may be indiscriminate, but not dangerously so.
On the whole, I'd bet fewer people will end up being killed by mistake this time than were killed after the US Hellfired an Afghan taking his family out to get drinking water in 2021.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Part of being the good guys is caring about collateral

In war there's always collateral damage. You work to minimize it, hope to eliminate, but understand when it happens.

 

[Tidewater]

Axios is reporting one of the people killed was a little girl.

"...they're meant for" and who actually has them aren't a perfect circle on a venn diagram.

And Axios' source was ... wait for it... Hezbollah. Possibly true but also possibly a deliberate lie to prey on Western commitment to Just War Theory.

 

[AUDub]

And Axios' source was ... wait for it... Hezbollah. Possibly true but also possibly a deliberate lie to prey on Western commitment to Just War Theory.

It was Lebanon’s health minister.

 

[Tidewater]

I remember the reports of an American bombing of a "wedding party" in Afghanistan.
Once the US and Afghan government got boots on the ground they found 26 military age men, 20 AK-47s, 6 RPGs, 300 magazines of 7.62 x 39 ammo, no women (odd for a wedding, even in Afghanistan), no children.
Oddest wedding party ever.
The Talibs knew the West would get their knickers in a twist over having bombed "a wedding party" so the Talibs deliberately called it a wedding party. Instant outrage.

 

[Tidewater]

It was Lebanon’s health minister.

Have you ever been to Lebanon?
Do you know where the Lebanese Health Minister lives? (Hint: Hezbollah knows. And they know how many children or grandchildren, he has. And where they go to school. And by what routes on which days.)

 

[AUDub]

The principle of noncombatant immunity in Just War Theory would mean that a tactic that might injure the noncombatants should be avoided. The principle of proportionality (in jus in bello) would also means that the potential for collateral damage should be considered when discussing tactics. That said, these were pagers to be used by Hezbollah to recall Hezbollah operatives, so it seem unlikely that a Hezbollah operative would give his pager to his daughter for her use, for two reasons: (1) his daughter probably has a smart phone so why would she take the step back in technology and (2) this was a one-way communication from Hezbollah HQ to Hezbollah operatives, so it seems useless for noncombatants, even as Hezbollah defines the term.

It may be indiscriminate, but not dangerously so.
On the whole, I'd bet fewer people will end up being killed by mistake this time than were killed after the US Hellfired an Afghan taking his family out to get drinking water in 2021.

I think it exhibits reckless indifference regarding possible civilian casualties. Something which Israel is usually pretty bad about when it unleashes hell.

And the Hamas and Hezbollahs of the world tend to like it when that happens.

Though this one probably stings a bit more because it *was* a pretty well directed supply chain attack.

 

[Tidewater]

I think it exhibits reckless indifference regarding possible civilian casualties. Something which Israel is usually pretty bad about when it unleashes hell.

And the Hamas and Hezbollahs of the world tend to like it when that happens.

Though this one probably stings a bit more because it *was* a pretty well directed supply chain attack.

The more effective the tactic was, the stronger the incentive to get the Israelis to stop using this.
Are the willing to lie a little about collateral damage to protect themselves from a repeat of this tactics (or similar tactics), heck yeah. I mean, "they're only lying to Jews."

 

[AUDub]

Have you ever been to Lebanon?
Do you know where the Lebanese Health Minister lives? (Hint: Hezbollah knows. And they know how many children or grandchildren, he has. And where they go to school. And by what routes on which days.)

Kind of moving the goalposts here

“Axios reports a kid is among the dead”

“That’s Hezbollah”

“Actually it was the Lebanese health minister”

“Oh well it’s becuase Hezbollah is threatening him”

There’s gonna be a lot of injured kids or otherwise innocent people once we get a solid accounting of the casualties.

 

[AUDub]

Everyone is lauding how precise this is but we really don’t have a full bead on that yet.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The principle of noncombatant immunity in Just War Theory would mean that a tactic that might injure the noncombatants should be avoided. The principle of proportionality (in jus in bello) would also means that the potential for collateral damage should be considered when discussing tactics. That said, these were pagers to be used by Hezbollah to recall Hezbollah operatives, so it seem unlikely that a Hezbollah operative would give his pager to his daughter for her use, for two reasons: (1) his daughter probably has a smart phone so why would she take the step back in technology and (2) this was a one-way communication from Hezbollah HQ to Hezbollah operatives, so it seems useless for noncombatants, even as Hezbollah defines the term.

It may be indiscriminate, but not dangerously so.
On the whole, I'd bet fewer people will end up being killed by mistake this time than were killed after the US Hellfired an Afghan taking his family out to get drinking water in 2021.

My paranoid mind sees more to this. We can assume the Hezbollah didn't order their pagers from Alibabba. They would think they had some control or oversight over the supply chain. From now on, their operatives will have to give long second looks at their phones, laptops, etc...

 

[AlexanderFan]

My paranoid mind sees more to this. We can assume the Hezbollah didn't order their pagers from Alibabba. They would think they had some control or oversight over the supply chain. From now on, their operatives will have to give long second looks at their phones, laptops, etc...

I’m already worried about copy cats on a smaller scale. I just hope that compound isn’t easy to come by, nor the knowledge on how to make a battery overheat.

 

[Chukker Veteran]

I wonder if those who are primarily focused on recovering the hostages held in Gaza see this pager attack as helpful to their effort.

The pager attack seems like s science fiction story. Completely unnerving to those targeted. We’ve seen rogue nations supply bad actors with weapons, now maybe they will do the same with safe and reliable ways for the bad actors to communicate.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I wonder if those who are primarily focused on recovering the hostages held in Gaza see this pager attack as helpful to their effort.

Two different fronts, so to speak.

 

[Chukker Veteran]

Two different fronts, so to speak.

I understand that.
But I still wonder if it was seen as helpful or the opposite.

 

[AlexanderFan]

I wonder if those who are primarily focused on recovering the hostages held in Gaza see this pager attack as helpful to their effort.

The pager attack seems like s science fiction story. Completely unnerving to those targeted. We’ve seen rogue nations supply bad actors with weapons, now maybe they will do the same with safe and reliable ways for the bad actors to communicate.

Showing the guerillas that they are better at guerrillaing than they are. Got to be earth shattering, and cranks the paranoia up to eleven if you’re hezbollah.

I think this many dead or injured terrorists all at once can’t be a bad thing.

Israel may just be tired of the nonsense. It’s easy to say from this side of nobody involved, but losing the hostages versus the damage to hezbollah could be seen as a win in the long game.

 

[Chukker Veteran]

Showing the guerillas that they are better at guerrillaing than they are. Got to be earth shattering, and cranks the paranoia up to eleven if you’re hezbollah.

I think this many dead or injured terrorists all at once can’t be a bad thing.

Israel may just be tired of the nonsense. It’s easy to say from this side of nobody involved, but losing the hostages versus the damage to hezbollah could be seen as a win in the long game.

i can understand that point of view and share it to an extent. But I don’t think Netanyahu is operating in good faith overall.