The barn's remaining schedule is: at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, Mercer and us.
The betting line is Arkansas -1. Essentially a pick'em game. At home, they'll be favored against Kentucky. If Pavia is healthy, they'll lose to Vandy. Then crush Mercer. Then comes November 29. The way-too-early betting line has us as a 7-point favorite.
Today, the barn is 3-4 overall, and 0-4 in the SEC. Given the remaining schedule, I'd expect them to go between 2-2 and 3-1 over the next 4 games. Which would put them 5-6 / 6-5 overall and 1-6 / 2-5 in the SEC going into the game against us.
If we win, they're 1-7 / 2-6 in the SEC, and Freeze is clearly gone. If they beat us, they are 2-6 / 3-5 in the SEC. But they'd have a win against their white whale. If that happens, I think they keep him and lay yet another substandard season at the feet of the SEC refs.
So unless The Right Reverend yaks up hairballs against both Arkansas and Kentucky and is gone before November 29 -- not likely, but also not impossible -- I think it comes down to that game.
Rev knows this and I have zero doubt he's been preparing for us since about 30 seconds after the Mizzou game ended. Given the barn's Ahab-like mindset about us, it's actually the logical thing to do. Nothing else really matters to the barn decision-makers.
Put it another way: Has a barn coach ever been fired after beating Alabama?