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Is Tennessee In the Ascendancy?

pcolatide said:
Florida actually has a very small talent pool to draw from!! Urban has said they only recruit the top 1% of the top 1%. That's not a whole lot of folks to pick from. :)
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One thing I have noticed about FL, the past few yrs in recruiting, is they seem to be very hard to beat in recruiting most of the really speedy, shifty guys from all over the SE. I may be wrong in my assessment but the guys that they want for their spread system, usually the smaller just grease lightning fast players in the SE are hard to pry away from them. Their overall team speed is amazing to me. Now I feel like with last yr and this yr's class Saban is putting together, we are filling the cupboard with our own down right speedsters. I think Saban knows how to stop FL and is getting/got a team together that can and will take FL down. The posts on here about FL not being able to compete in the East are ludicrous they cherry pick the talent from FL every yr and do well out of st also. FL will look very different when Tebow leaves. Meyer is going to go back to a more pass happy option spread. Not having a FB for a QB will change the make of the offense. But this leaving them on the outside looking in as far as the East is concerned is wishful thinking IMO. FL is here to stay and I think we are the only team in the SEC that can keep them honest. I feel TN can make a wave or 2 "maybe" if they continue to recruit well and actually coach them well enough. Whether they are in ascendancy or not I think the record speaks for itself. They have yet to win a big SEC game, and I don't think nxt yr will be any better. Just look at what they are losing.....

QB

Crompton

RB

Hardesty

OL

Sullins twins, OT Scott, OG McClendon, backup C McNeil...5 total

DE

both starters

LB

Rico McCoy

DB

Furlow and Berry(draft)

.....and any others who may leave for the draft that are under the radar.

I wouldn't put $ on them even reaching a bowl game nxt yr.
 
deliveryman35 said:
Jess, you make some good points, but I think it's already factored in that UT relies on a national recruiting strategy. It's always been that way for them.

I'm not saying that UF is going to go the way of Vanderbilt, but I don't see them keeping their stranglehold on the East anymore after this year. With the development of the South Florida program and the resurgence of Miami, and factor in Nick and other guys now successfully raiding the state for talent, I see the talent pool for Florida to draw upon becoming greatly diluted. Couple that with Georgia trending downward with Mark Richt, and I see an opening for UT over in that division, if they continue to recruit well and keep a good staff in tact. That's all I am saying....
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Here's something else Tennessee (and especially Auburn) has to contend with these days: USF, UCF, FAU and FIU.

I can hear the snickering now, but a lot of the kids that USF and UCF in particular are now in the hunt for are the same kids who Auburn used to cherry-pick back in the 70s and 80s.

When does this affect Tennessee? When you're talking about kids who don't want to move very far from Mama. No school in the country right now other than Notre Dame -- and nobody else has the same set of circumstances Notre Dame has, including Alabama (i.e., we aren't a Catholic school and we don't have our own default TV network) and certainly not Tennessee -- can survive on a purely national recruiting strategy. You have to have a local base to have consistent success.

Alabama will still draw 10-15 guys out of its 25 every year from inside Alabama. To get to that number, you have to take the 35-40 SEC-ready prospects inside Alabama, then separate the true blue-chippers from the ones who are just competent, then factor out the ones who are in love with Auburn or FSU or whoever, and then you have your 10-15. So you basically end up getting about 33 percent of the available "good" players in your state.

Well, let's take Tennessee -- if they get 33 percent of their "good" players, they'll get 6-10 guys. So now they have to go outside the state for as many as 19 other players...

...except this isn't 1955 or 1994 anymore. You have a master recruiter at Alabama (who just happens to be stealing one or two top guys from your own state every year, further reducing your pool), a good recruiter at Georgia, a master recruiter at North Carolina, a very good recruiter at Clemson, you have Spurrier at USC who still has some name recognition, Groh recruits well at UVA, Virginia Tech is now a national program, Louisville and Kentucky are improved and you have Petrino raiding your Memphis-area prospects. If Georgia Tech had hired a master recruiter instead of Johnson, they'd really be in trouble.

So where are you going to get them from? Can you divide 19 players between Texas and California and count on them every year? When was the last time you heard of a Florida HS player -- an elite one -- dreaming of playing for UT? The last time that happened, Manning was still at UT. Well, that was 14 years ago -- when these current-day prospects were four years old.

Tennessee's best-case scenario is to be able to get back to a level where they can get to Atlanta one year out of three at best. They will never again dominate the East by themselves. Florida and Georgia will always be right up there with them, probably above them.
 
JessN said:
Here's something else Tennessee (and especially Auburn) has to contend with these days: USF, UCF, FAU and FIU.

I can hear the snickering now, but a lot of the kids that USF and UCF in particular are now in the hunt for are the same kids who Auburn used to cherry-pick back in the 70s and 80s.

When does this affect Tennessee? When you're talking about kids who don't want to move very far from Mama. No school in the country right now other than Notre Dame -- and nobody else has the same set of circumstances Notre Dame has, including Alabama (i.e., we aren't a Catholic school and we don't have our own default TV network) and certainly not Tennessee -- can survive on a purely national recruiting strategy. You have to have a local base to have consistent success.

Alabama will still draw 10-15 guys out of its 25 every year from inside Alabama. To get to that number, you have to take the 35-40 SEC-ready prospects inside Alabama, then separate the true blue-chippers from the ones who are just competent, then factor out the ones who are in love with Auburn or FSU or whoever, and then you have your 10-15. So you basically end up getting about 33 percent of the available "good" players in your state.

Well, let's take Tennessee -- if they get 33 percent of their "good" players, they'll get 6-10 guys. So now they have to go outside the state for as many as 19 other players...

...except this isn't 1955 or 1994 anymore. You have a master recruiter at Alabama (who just happens to be stealing one or two top guys from your own state every year, further reducing your pool), a good recruiter at Georgia, a master recruiter at North Carolina, a very good recruiter at Clemson, you have Spurrier at USC who still has some name recognition, Groh recruits well at UVA, Virginia Tech is now a national program, Louisville and Kentucky are improved and you have Petrino raiding your Memphis-area prospects. If Georgia Tech had hired a master recruiter instead of Johnson, they'd really be in trouble.

So where are you going to get them from? Can you divide 19 players between Texas and California and count on them every year? When was the last time you heard of a Florida HS player -- an elite one -- dreaming of playing for UT? The last time that happened, Manning was still at UT. Well, that was 14 years ago -- when these current-day prospects were four years old.

Tennessee's best-case scenario is to be able to get back to a level where they can get to Atlanta one year out of three at best. They will never again dominate the East by themselves. Florida and Georgia will always be right up there with them, probably above them.
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I agree....when you put the #'s up there it just re-affirms the huge mountain they have to overcome in the recruiting aspect of it. I am not saying it is impossible but I feel TN is facing too much to ever be "Rocky Top" yr in yr out....going to be more like "Rocky Middle of the East" IMO.
 
deliveryman35 said:
I'm no soothesayer, but I can remember betting on Urban Meyer back in '05 on this board with my"back up the truck and load up with UM stock"...
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A stopped clock is still right twice a day.

The point is that there isn't any solid evidence on how well Lane Kiffen will do at UT. I've already pointed out Shula, Franchoine and Weis who all had some promising opening seasons. The college landscape is full of coaches who had some strong showing in their first year but then later failed rather spectacularly.

Alabama played horribly yesterday - especially the offense. The offense has been struggling for weeks now - it's not like Alabama has been averaging 40 points a game and then all of a sudden UT limited us to 4 field goals.

Even with an exhausted defense, UT still needed a late fumble by Ingram to score a touchdown. How is that any evidence that UT is on the rise?
 
I think Monty Kiffin is the only reason that team is somewhat respectable. When he retires or suffers Bobby Bowden syndrome, that whole staff is SOL. Lane is a good offensive coordinator. He has that mentality. LK does not have what it takes to be a good head coach in the SEC.
 
CLK is going to have to do his best coaching job from here on out. I believe they put it all on the line yesterday, and still came up short. Now he'll have to make sure the players don't "pack it in" for the rest of the season.

I think they'll do good to get bowl eligible. I don't see them getting much better next year either. I say at best six wins this year and six next year. As we've seen, Vol fans won't put up with many six win seasons, especially if they don't beat Bama. Kiffen won't be there when his first recruits graduate. It's simple logic. He's an NFL guy looking for a way back. He'll either do poorly. in which case they'll fire him. If UT does well (which I don't see happening), someone from the NFL will offer him a job, in which case he'll jump at the chance. CLK has got places to go and things to do, and rebuilding the UT football program is just a means to an end.
 
I say no. Saturday's game reminded me of the Mike Shula days at Alabama. Shula would take an overmatched Alabama team and some how find a way to lose. Do I have to bring up the 03 OT game? Kiffin really showed his poor coaching when he let :40 just tick away instead of A. maybe scoring a TD or at least B. getting his FG kicker closer.

His saving grace just might be his staff.
 
As far as recruiting goes , we had a #10 ranked class in 09 (per Rivals) . The staff was only on the job 90 days . This year we are currently ranked #6 with appx. 10 more scholarships to hand out . That is potentially a top three class . As far as coaching goes , we played the #1 team on the road (Florida) and lost by 10 .We played the #1 team on the road (Bama) and lost by 2 . We have lost two games by 4 points . We have inferior talent on this team and they are at least competing in the SEC . This staff has been together 10 months and they have made obvious improvements in that short time . Can they do it for the long haul ? Only time will tell.
 
bamadp said:
CLK is going to have to do his best coaching job from here on out. I believe they put it all on the line yesterday, and still came up short. Now he'll have to make sure the players don't "pack it in" for the rest of the season.
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The same thing was said after the Florida game and it didn't happen
 
OreBama said:
I think Monty Kiffin is the only reason that team is somewhat respectable. When he retires or suffers Bobby Bowden syndrome, that whole staff is SOL. Lane is a good offensive coordinator. He has that mentality. LK does not have what it takes to be a good head coach in the SEC.
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Exactly. Monty Kiffin is the reason Tenn is even close to competitive. If he stays past next year, it will be his last and then they are right back to square one. As for the rest of the coaching staff, they can only afford to pay them that much for so long........
 
UT has improved as the season has progressed. They are a better team now than they were last year. And they are gaining respect where they were losing it last year at this time. So, the answer to your question, deliveryman35, is yes. The Vols are "in the ascendancy."

But the real question is...how high will they ascend? I think under Kiffin's leadership they will improve and become competitive in their division. But I don't see them pushing UF out of the top spot in the SECE. They will be competitive in most of their games and will be a legitimate threat as a spoiler. But I just don't think Kiffin is good enough to get them over the hump where they will be considered the best team, or even one of the best teams, in the SEC.
 
:BigA: Crompton and backup Stephens are senior Qb? I think they wil be hurting at QB for a while! It makes everyones season to beat Alabama but it will makes no ones season to beat Tennessee! Go think about it!
 
VolFan1 said:
The same thing was said after the Florida game and it didn't happen
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Well the onus is on Lame and your program to climb the mountain not the naysayers. Bama fans had a very similar experience with Shula and his staff when they first came on board. But as the "waters settled", the "new wore off" of their hiring, it became obvious pretty quick that we were in for a long haul. Because the reality of it was that LSU, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and other schools outside the SEC and gotten pretty far ahead of us with talent and quality depth. Just looking at y'alls roster I think 10 r c is in a very similar situation. Granted, Lame's staff is much better than ours but how far has 10 r c fell behind the rest of the top programs with regards to talent and player development?

Until I start seeing UT start winning 10 games again and beating Florida I'm not going to be a believer. Much of our problem Saturday was fatigue (having been the only team to play eight straight weeks), you having a two week break to prepare. Our staff laid an egg on the play calling as well. Y'all couldn't stop the wildcat yet we went away from it. Either way UT has a longer haul to "being back" than they may think.
 
JessN said:
When does this affect Tennessee? When you're talking about kids who don't want to move very far from Mama. No school in the country right now other than Notre Dame -- and nobody else has the same set of circumstances Notre Dame has, including Alabama (i.e., we aren't a Catholic school and we don't have our own default TV network) and certainly not Tennessee -- can survive on a purely national recruiting strategy. You have to have a local base to have consistent success.
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Or at least a regional base. Oklahoma is a state very similar to Tennessee in that it doesn't turn out a boatload of talent every year. But Oklahoma recruits Texas as much as the state's flagship school does, and probably outrecruits A&M and TT in their own state. Oklahoma recruits a region.

UT doesn't even have that. As you pointed out, they are surrounded by brilliant recruiters who also happen to be darned good coaches. Kiffin may turn out to be a pretty good coach. But he is no Urban Meyer, he is no Nick Saban and he is no Bob Stoops.

The answer to the OP's question is an unqualified "no." If I were in need of an analogy, I would compare Kiffin and UT to a bicycle that's being pedaled to slowly. Yes, it's still moving but the situation is perilous.

The hire still puzzles me. There were so many better options out there, all of whom are proving themselves again this season.
 
crains said:
:BigA: Crompton and backup Stephens are senior Qb? I think they wil be hurting at QB for a while! It makes everyones season to beat Alabama but it will makes no ones season to beat Tennessee! Go think about it!
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I think Stephens is a JR. They'll be hurting at QB next year.

They also lose the following starters:
- Hardesty (RB)
- Hancock (WR)
- Stocker (TE)
- Scott (OT)
- Shaw (OT)
- Sullins (OG)
- McClendon (OG)
- Brown (DT)
- Williams (DT)
- Thompson (LB)
- McCoy (LB)
- Reveiz (LB)

And of course Berry (S) is likely gone.

Yes, the lose the entire LB corps along with the ENTIRE offensive line, save the 260# walk-on center. Yah, they'll be awesome next year...
 
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I keep hearing about Tennessee's lack Talent. This may surprise some but in 2005 they were ranked number 4 in recruiting. In 2006 they were ranked number 23. In 2007 they were ranked number 3. In 2008 they were ranked number 35 still ahead of Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Penn State, Utah, TCU and Houston. 2009 they were ranked number 10. So as you can see all this hog wash about them not having talent is ludicrous. We need to stop giving them the excuse that they don't have talent when nothing could be further from the truth. We beat them because we are better coached and at some positions we have a few players that are superior but in the big scheme of things the talent is not that far apart. We just developed ours they didn't.
 
Kevin4Bama said:
I'll give UT credit for playing it as close as they did, however, if Bama had the week off prior instead of Tennessee, it would have been a different outcome. Wouldn't have been close.
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Heck, if we would have run the ball instead of trying to pass it to JJ in the red-zone it wouldn't have been close.

We allowed it to be close and they almost took advantage of it.
 
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