Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

TideEngineer08

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Jun 9, 2009
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By the way, here's the current bracket based off of the BCS rankings

I'd really love that match-up and bracket for Alabama.
lol, yeah. that game against Penn State, at Happy Valley in the snow, would be a lot tougher than a second round game against SMU at some southern bowl site. That's the easiest 2nd round draw with perhaps the toughest 1st round game.

Don't get me wrong. I think the whole weather argument that is spouted by Big Ten fans against the SEC is completely overblown and totally misdirected. But that does not change the reality of the fact that Alabama playing in sub-30 degree weather on the road with 108k hostile fans is, sub-optimal at best.
 

statgrad96

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Dec 26, 2008
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A couple of issues there. Ole Miss's resume is really worse than South Carolina or Alabama. They just have the head to head over South Carolina. But, if we're talking SoS then they are clearly lagging behind. Their SoS is 46 according to Sagarin, that's not even in the same ballpark. Their win over Georgia and head to head victory are allowing them to stay ahead of SC but the other metrics are clearly placing them behind Alabama. They also lost to Florida and Kentucky so they are carrying bad losses as well.

As far as the committee, they put in a second ACC team in their next rankings and they are doing something pretty dangerous potentially. Let's say for the sake of argument they put Miami ahead of Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. That alone is a bold statement, it's saying a team that beat no one , has an SoS of 61 and is ranked 14th according to Sagarin belongs in.

It also opens the door for three ACC teams to get in. So if SMU loses to Clemson, are both those teams in and leaving Miami in as well? Does the ACC deserve as many teams as the SEC? That would be a bold and ultimately incredibly stupid move by the committee.

Mind you, I'm basing this all on what they should do not necessarily what they will do, heh.
I don’t disagree at all. I’m just speculating that the committee may want to sidestep all of this splitting hairs between UA, OM, USCe, and lest we not forget, Mizzou, who is also 9-3 (but have losses to USCe and was boat raced by UA).

I agree about OM’s schedule, but it’s not just that they have the HTH with USCe, they beat them by 24 points in their stadium. That’s hard for me to say that USCe deserves it over OM.

The real issue is that not only the 4 team playoff would have been much better this year, the BCS, matching the winners of the Big 10 and SEC championship winners would really be the best for the year…. But here we are.

Fact is that UA and OM have the same record as USCe and own the HTH. They could ignore that, but what precedent does that establish? Also, these HTH games were not way back in September. These games were in October. My only gripe here would be that if the HTH wasn't the end all, be all (and not saying that it should be), why were we continually dragged down last year by it because of the Texas game? It would really look like selective enforcement...

I would also add that the fact that we took the trip to Wisconsin, regardless of how they turned out, may be looked upon favorably because we at least attempted to challenge ourselves out of conference. Also, it gives us a common opponent with many of the Big 10 contenders.

Finally, if you really wanted to put in the SEC team that is playing the best now, I'd say that may be Florida. Take out the 6 quarters that they had to play with the Yale transfer QB and they have improved more than anyone else from Game 1 to 12...
 

CoolBreeze

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By the way, here's the current bracket based off of the BCS rankings

I'd really love that match-up and bracket for Alabama.
Makes too much sense so will not happen. 9 of the 12 from the SEC and B1G (5&4, respectively) is pretty accurate but flies in the face of the "inclusion" narrative they used to expand the field to 12 teams. I suspect we will get a watered down version of this and an immediate expansion to 16 teams next year...when this same thing will happen again.
 

tusks_n_raider

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By the way, here's the current bracket based off of the BCS rankings

I'd really love that match-up and bracket for Alabama.
That's probably pretty close to how it will be.

I could see it being #12 Bama vs #5 ND or #11 Bama vs #6 PSU

But if recent history is any indicator I think they'd beat ND but then lose to Boise St by not respecting them OR Beat PSU and then lose to SMU by not respecting them.

It would be better for this team to be in a 7/10 or 8/9 game and get Oregon or Texas in the Quarters because they'd take them seriously.....maybe.
 
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That's probably pretty close to how it will be.

I could see it being #12 Bama vs #5 ND or #11 Bama vs #6 PSU

But if recent history is any indicator I think they'd beat ND but then lose to Boise St by not respecting them OR Beat PSU and then lose to SMU by not respecting them.

It would be better for this team to be in a 7/10 or 8/9 game and get Oregon or Texas in the Quarters because they'd take them seriously.....maybe.
Wow! 5 teams! Danny Kanell's head would explode!
 
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tusks_n_raider

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Wow! 5 teams! Danny Kanell's head would explode!
4 Teams

Texas, UGA, and Tenn are all in for sure.

I think Bama is the last team they would take from the SEC over both OM and USCe

They could also leave all 3 out to avoid the argument over why they picked one over the other 2 and take Miami or some other 10-2 team.

But regardless of my personal opinions about this Bama team I think they do take them for the ratings boost at #11 or #12
 
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Power Eye

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I do genuinely think we get into the playoff if SMU beats Clemson. I was also starting to think we get in if SMU loses to Clemson, because I don't think SMU has a resume that gets them into the playoff even if their second loss is in a conference championship game. What I would be concerned about in that scenario is if UGA loses to Texas and Clemson beats SMU, does that boost SC's resume and diminish ours to where they could jump us when neither team is playing. Doesn't change the head-to-head, which I believe is the most important factor when deciding between two very similar teams, but it is a concern.

Also, it will be interesting to see if Duke, LSU, A&M or Louisville are ranked in the CFP this week.
 

statgrad96

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Dec 26, 2008
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So, I went back and looked at South Carolina's SEC schedule. A few interesting notes:

South Carolina did not have to play Texas, UGA, or Tennessee. (Current top 3 in SEC standings)

South Carolina lost to Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU (Tied for 4th in the SEC Standings).

South Carolina's SEC wins were: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma

So, their best conference win was Missouri, a game that I had forgotten that USCe had to score with :15 seconds left to take the lead.
 

arthurdawg

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Makes too much sense so will not happen. 9 of the 12 from the SEC and B1G (5&4, respectively) is pretty accurate but flies in the face of the "inclusion" narrative they used to expand the field to 12 teams. I suspect we will get a watered down version of this and an immediate expansion to 16 teams next year...when this same thing will happen again.
And then 32 teams the following year, then 64, then 96, and before long it will 256 as we add all of the FBS teams in...

Am I hearing you right NAIA???
 
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statgrad96

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Dec 26, 2008
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In that theoretical "BCS" bracket above, ND basically gets a bye to the semifinals after playing a regular-season schedule that has one actually decent team on it.

What a joke.
Notre Dame, Indiana, SMU and Texas have not beaten a ranked team. Tennessee and Penn State have only beaten 1 (and that's if you count Illinois as a ranked team).

Food for thought... If you swap schedules for Texas and Oklahoma, are their records the same?
 

westide

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Heather Dinich who seems to have insider information when it comes to the CFP committee says Miami will get the #11 spot. I hope she is wrong.
 

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